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Significant upper middle Atlantic S/CNE mix/snow potential Jan 3+


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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is way SE....a bit of model chaos.

Probably going to stay that way for a bit. We're looking at 3 days until there is a coherent GEFS signal for what this system will be sensitive to.

It looks like it will be tied to the wake of the weekend system, not surprisingly. If we allow heights to rise more quickly behind this weekend, there is a better chance we don't whiff something on the 4th like the Ukie hints at.

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Ukie is mostly a whiff...it gives some snow to CT and MA....it shows rain for SE MA, but I think it would prob be snow as they get into a commahead for a time. But it has sfc temps around 37 so it spits out rain on the clown maps....but 850 temp is like -5 and 925mb is like -1 to -2 so I would say snow there.

Doesn't really matter though on a 96h prog.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Probably going to stay that way for a bit. We're looking at 3 days until there is a coherent GEFS signal for what this system will be sensitive to.

It looks like it will be tied to the wake of the weekend system, not surprisingly. If we allow heights to rise more quickly behind this weekend, there is a better chance we don't whiff something on the 4th like the Ukie hints at.

Bruce Willis just got run over.

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Ahh... these runs that explode those tight little QPF nuclei like this ... I think some para-Military GFS runs did this recently ??  I agree with - I think it was - Scott who commented on the dubious appeal of that behavior.

I suppose it is not 'impossible' - I've commented before, the individual model runs do not put out solutions that are physically impossible. That would be a really bad sign if the model in question was a la la land consultation.   Are there any analogs that like that?   There must be... either way, it's rare.  I would think though, with the wind max traversing ISP to ACK or even S of there,...and the core cold Hdz of the trough situated back over ALB ... this probably has some sort of mechanical support to smear or open that up back NW... Not just saying that to placate the desires of the beloved brethren on the site, either... lol... Plus, there's that weird sfc pressure - looks like some kind of grid scale feedback almost.  hm

Also, just wanted to remind... duration is/was one of the contentions at the thread's outset ... This was mentioned. The arrival of the NAO may impose an exertion that slows this thing down upon exit/departure... The GGEM shows this hesitation on the the 12z now more readily and the GFS definitely does as well!  In fact, excluding it's weird QPF clumping and hyper nodal pressure well near the Islands..the next panel blossoms a CCB head as other's have noted for 4 goodly hours of choke-snow.  ... that's really the storm being forced into a stall by down stream exertion at mid levels, and that immediately causes capture and a kickback for quasi CSI ...but probably a frontogenic banded response in that region ensues...

I'm not sure why the UKMET does what it does - again...not physically impossible we would hope.  That said, it depends upon both subtle and gross orientations of said -NAO ... and where in both space and time its arrival over the western limb of the domain space emerges.  Nice sentence there to describe what really takes several dissertation's worth of complexity to iron out deterministically.  It 'seems' the UKMET tries to undercut the -NAO ...similar to the NE Pac when a -EPO severs from the Pac jet ... sending it S/splitting matters..But in the Atlantic...

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