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Sunday-Monday Jan 3-4 potential rapidly intensifying ene moving nor'easter along the mid Atlantic coast with rain to snow mainly I84 to near I95 north through west of NYC


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8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Yes it is progged to fill in later.  Question will be precip types.  Most models are keeping precip type rain for most with snow north of I-80 /I-95 in NY as the afternoon progresses.  New HRRR is colder and would have more snow south of I-80 in NJ/PA.  Another piece of this is the inverted trough that is expected to be set up particularly across eastern PA.  This will effect rates and thus precip types.

Thanks for the update. I always enjoy how we can still get surprised. 

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Today is my bday. In 39 years almost every bday I can remember has had snow on the ground, snow in the air, ice or rain around this date. 

Two of the best ones I remember: sometime around 1986 heavy rain to snow during my bday party. I was likely 4 or 5. Possibly 1996 an ice storm that left the city with a thin crusty cover of snow and ice. 

Snow away!

 

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

now the big questions are -1. Will there be an organized second batch  and when ? 2. Where does the snow/ice/rain line set up ? right now the radars don't show any real second organized batch coming this way anytime soon...

Look at the hrrr and you’ll see how it could fill in this afternoon. 

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Look at the hrrr and you’ll see how it could fill in this afternoon. 

Also added the Satellite loop to the OBS-NOWCAST page.  It's coming, especially ne PA/nw NJ and se NYS into sw CT.  Not encouraged by modeling vicinity I84 region e of Hartford to ORH.  They may only get 1 or 2 "?

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1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Today is my bday. In 39 years almost every bday I can remember has had snow on the ground, snow in the air, ice or rain around this date. 

Two of the best ones I remember: sometime around 1986 heavy rain to snow during my bday party. I was likely 4 or 5. Possibly 1996 an ice storm that left the city with a thin crusty cover of snow and ice. 

Snow away!

 

Happy Birthday

 

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Today is my bday. In 39 years almost every bday I can remember has had snow on the ground, snow in the air, ice or rain around this date. 
Two of the best ones I remember: sometime around 1986 heavy rain to snow during my bday party. I was likely 4 or 5. Possibly 1996 an ice storm that left the city with a thin crusty cover of snow and ice. 
Snow away!
 
Happy birthday!

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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21 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

From eye testing easily around .5-.75 is currently on the ground after the initial burst, should help to easily meet the forecast. Curious to see if any banding forms to help bust some of these forecasted amounts high, but Storm still moving too quickly to go anything more than 6-7”

As long as we get a 6-8 hour steady event with 4-6 I'll be happy. I want to use my new snow blower for a second time

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Results of the event, which was basically 830A/3-6A/4...various start times. The worst appears to be have been centered near 6-7PM.  Had sleet/glaze freezing drizzle in nw NJ and ne PA.  First 3 are CoCoRAHS and the last  image is the NWS LSR map of posted reports.  Note that WPC guidance didn't seem to handle the 08z/3  2"+ and especially 4"+ probabilities very well in the Poconos and Catskills. 

 

Screen_Shot_2021-01-04_at_11_02.58_AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-04 at 11.00.57 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-01-04_at_10_14.39_AM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-01-04_at_11_12.56_AM.png


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