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Sunday-Monday Jan 3-4 potential rapidly intensifying ene moving nor'easter along the mid Atlantic coast with rain to snow mainly I84 to near I95 north through west of NYC


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26 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Agreed. Im not buying any 6+ accums. Most models have QPF .50 or less for event. 

Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County

Agree totally. It’s also not going to be all snow I don’t think anywhere south of Ulster so bouncing around precip types will also affect accumulations. 

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38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Problem is the 10:1 ratio snowmaps, first off, those ratios are not happening, they will be much lower, second, they count sleet as snow. The boundary layer is going to suck. Highs are approaching 40 degrees that day even up here in Rockland County

There should be enough cold air 84 and north to give a 2-4 inch snowfall. 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Now I know you are trolling. No one uses this map. It's always wrong.

Not trolling. That 10:1 ratio map is severely overdone and wrong. It incorrectly counts sleet as snow. You aren’t getting 10:1 ratios, it’s going to be way lower than that and the boundary layer is really horrible. There is also a mid-level warm punch, the NAM has it going to all rain even up here 

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24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Admit it’s trending colder still think its a minor event but interesting rgem/nam both now haven the rain/snow line right near or over the city 

We will have to see if subsequent runs are like this.  Previous runs of the RGEM have kept the R/S line mostly north of I80.  Up to now this model has been steadfast with a warmer solution.  Agree that this is a minor event for most.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Expecting 3-6 here in the Poconos at 2000 ft.

 

Where in the Poconos are you? I’m in Southern Wayne county, the far northern portion of the Pocono Plateau. Located in Pocono springs, in Newfoundland. I’m at just under 2,100 feet, roughly 2,080’. 3 to 6 sounds very reasonable for us at and above 2k.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

No. (LI and NYC anyway). I couldn’t care less about white rain. 

NAM is a wet snow at 34, but not strictly white rain.  Actually if that verified, I would expect the surface at 32 and everything above less than 32.  Getting it to verify is the problem.

 

Edit, this is 3k NAM.  12k still has us under the sea

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