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Stormlover74

January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

But they have all been consistent all along indicating that it will take a thread the needle to get a significant snow.

Kinda the same thing every winter lately...guess we have to depend on these kinds of events to sometimes deliver, because the 'favorable" patterns just seem out of reach every year....

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But they have all been consistent indicating that it will take a perfect thread the needle to get a significant snow near the coast.

and the 12Z GFS threaded the needle perfectly:sled:

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But they have all been consistent indicating that it will take a perfect thread the needle to get a significant snow near the coast.

yes, but they are flip-flopping between cutting primary into blocking and then next model run has low sliding south and our area being much colder. It is a thread the needle event but completely different set-ups. 

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32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave @donsutherland1 Nino region 4 in a free fall, now -1.2C. When was the last time it’s been this cold? I honestly can’t remember seeing SSTs that cold in region 4. Over the last decade, it’s consistently been the warmest ENSO regionnino4.png

This week’s -1.3C figure of Region 4 was the coldest since the week centered around January 25, 2012 when the anomaly was also -1.3C.

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10 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Gfs is a big hit. I’ll trust models before I trust anyone’s baseless opinion here. Hopefully next weeks system will produce we need it badly

ok then to be fair why not trust the 12Z CMC - a complete miss to the south ?

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.pnggem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s a 192hr GFS solution with a +EPO and -PNA. Just a little more amped and all the warmth to the south ends up in our area. Goes to show how much a challenge this one will be to get just right.

4F2FB3D6-A0A6-4126-9019-6E6347A10D44.thumb.png.457f805b2ee254978d785029379db156.png

 

yes to try to get it right 200 hours in advance is a great challenge BUT as we close in on it it will get less and less challenging IMO - we have been through this many  times since these forums started a long time ago

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23 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Gfs is a big hit. I’ll trust models before I trust anyone’s baseless opinion here. Hopefully next weeks system will produce we need it badly

Good luck with that. Trusting one run of the GooFuS more than a week out is probably not advisable. 

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Para GFS is north and mild nothing is getting nailed down for days

 

yes different then both GFS and CMC with the temps especially

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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12Z GFS makes an apology.        Nosedives by 30 degrees and also goes nutty with the snow, not shown.          Mental Illness will do that:

The GFS sings.......PEOPLE DON'T YOU WORRY----I KNOW WHAT I'M DOIN'------I KNOW WHAT COLD'S ALL ABOUT----Ah! THIS little  VORTEX WON'T MAKE A FOOL OUT OF ME-----CAUSE I'M GONNA STRAIGHTENED IT OUT!!!!!!

 

1610971200-f7IhVROfKsY.png

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The 12z GFS notwithstanding, a 6” or greater snowfall in the forecast pattern is not very likely. Until one is within 48-72 hours and there is much greater model consensus, the base case remains a lighter accumulation scenario. 

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8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

No thread from me this afternoon on anything here 1/25-26 etc. Solutions too variable and there seemed to be a large southward displacement since the 00z cycle. Have no idea if that will hold firm. Will rereview in the morning.  

Good idea  - FWIW the 12Z EURO has an initial wave for Monday and then another to follow

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Good idea  - FWIW the 12Z EURO has an initial wave for Monday and then another to follow

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

And another wave after the 2nd one

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is our 3rd year in a row with long stretches between measurable snowfall. 


NYC

11-15-18...........6.4”......1-18-19....0.5

1-18-20..............2.1........no measurable snowfall the rest of the season

12-17-20...........10.5......no measurable snowfall through 1-18-21

 

I'm beginning to think we need another 82-83/97-98/15-16 Nino to change this 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

And another wave after the 2nd one

problem is that 2nd wave gets shoved south by the block - at least the models have reintroduced the idea of significant blocking and a stronger HP in southern Canadaprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

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8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

problem is that 2nd wave gets shoved south by the block - at least the models have reintroduced the idea of significant blocking and a stronger HP in southern Canadaprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Eps looks nice this far out 

6005deb04fa28.png

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Eps looks nice this far out 

6005deb04fa28.png

I think some snow may occur the next 10-14 days but the odds of something big are low.  If it happens it'll be some type of February 94ish event probably.  I don't think in this pattern we are going to get a classic KU or even a big coastal.

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think some snow may occur the next 10-14 days but the odds of something big are low.  If it happens it'll be some type of February 94ish event probably.  I don't think in this pattern we are going to get a classic KU or even a big coastal.

With the blocking, I can see a slow moving swfe or Miller b. 

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35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has a few storms

6005e29e85dde.png

The EPS and GFS both showing around 10 inches in the same location - interesting............sn10_acc.us_ne.png

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Good idea  - FWIW the 12Z EURO has an initial wave for Monday and then another to follow

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.pngprateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

I had to run some errands... , so rather than have anyone wonder, I just delayed til tomorrow.  After review of the 12z/18 NAEFS (available ~230P/A) we continue on target as outlined this morning around 6A... advisory snow/ice with most of this on the 26th but as you say, not only a piece possible on the 25th, it could wait til late 26/27.  Think this can wait til 6A ish/19 and get off the fence and topic at that time. That will still be 6-8 days in advance, so the uncertainties are likely to persist-will run it broad but give us the probable blended outcome.  NAEFS continues colder thicknesses and BL temps along I95 so not too bad, despite the differing model solutions. From my view, IF we do get 0.4" frozen qpf up here...where sleet doesn't occur, there might be some larger snow water ratios of 12-13 to 1 instead of our typical 10-7 to 1 along the coast?  Will havre to check some guidance on that. I like the LF quad of 2H jet. 

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From Orh in SNE

Weeklies went wild with the -AO/NAO well into February. If that is correct, we’re either in for more torture or a lot of fun. Can’t punt with that look. (Well I guess you can but it’s like punting on 4th and 2 at your opponent 40 down by 7 with 4 min to go)

 
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13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

From Orh in SNE

Weeklies went wild with the -AO/NAO well into February. If that is correct, we’re either in for more torture or a lot of fun. Can’t punt with that look. (Well I guess you can but it’s like punting on 4th and 2 at your opponent 40 down by 7 with 4 min to go)

 

That's interesting. But personally I think, as hobbyists, we would be better off if weeklies did not exist. 

Year after year they prove to be as misleading as they are predictive.

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