MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 18 here in Brooklyn Feels alot colder with the strong winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 While the blocking has been more south based during December and January, it still was the 3rd greatest number of days with a -AO. So maybe we will see more -AO winters in the coming years? Notice how the previous top years seemed to cluster together with other -AO winters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 18 here in Brooklyn Feels alot colder with the strong winds Anthony think seriously about house ownership, it’s no fun chasing loose garbage and pails in a -7 windchill. Luckily at my age I don’t have much feeling anymore. As always .... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 punishing wind and cold outside oh, and dry. dews below 0 F at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Cutter remains for the 5th 6th timeframe on the GFS and as usual has plenty of support from GEFS and EPS. Could be a cutter following a few days later but not clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Back into the freezer after the cutter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: Cutter remains for the 5th 6th timeframe on the GFS and as usual has plenty of support from GEFS and EPS. Could be a cutter following a few days later but not clear. cutter looks weak on the CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Went down to 15 this morning, wind chills were probably in below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looks like a gradient battle for Feb. Tons of cold on our side, we'll maintain AO/NAO blocking. SE ridge will be fighting back with MJO stuck at 7. Could be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It’s been a while since we had -20C or colder 850 mb temperatures. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 It's amazing how the MJO plot wave just STOPs I. The middle of phase 7 at a good amplitude. Not sure I have ever seen something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Epic snow cover extent volatility continues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Epic snow cover extent volatility continues. We will adding a lot to this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 it got colder by a few degrees then predicted last night for the city and it got 2 degrees warmer for today then predicted last night for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We will adding a lot to this too. Especially with the storm expanding snow cover extent from California to the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 man it was brutal this morning walking to work, getting outta my car and walking up a hill i couldnt feel a damn thing. the wind was howling too. Still pretty darn cold 21 feels like 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 26/15 split today. Coldest day since Feb 1, 2019 (25/10 hi/lo), 729 days ago, 2 days shy of 2 years. Absolutely dreadful. DP bottomed out at exactly 0. Currently 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 At New York City, the temperature fell to 14°. That was Central Park's coldest reading since February 15, 2020 when the temperature fell to 14°. At Boston, the temperature fell to 7°. That was Boston's coldest temperature since January 31, 2019 when the mercury dipped to 5°. Select low temperatures in the Northeast included: Albany: 0° Allentown: 17° Boston: 7° Bridgeport: 12° Burlington: 2° Concord: 4° Hartford: 6° Islip: 15° New York City: 14° Newark: 16° Philadelphia: 23° Portland: 10° Poughkeepsie: 11° Providence: 9° White Plains: 11° Worcester: 2° Following another very cold night, tomorrow will be a cold but dry day. Temperatures will likely reach only the upper 20s in much of the region with some lower 30s near or around Philadelphia and southern New Jersey. Afterward, the pieces will likely come together for the region's biggest snowfall since at least December 16-17, 2020. The potential currently exists for a significant (6" or greater) snowfall in parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions from late Sunday through Tuesday. An area of totals of 1 foot or more is likely, but details remain to be resolved. The EPS ensemble forecast 500 mb pattern in eastern North America is somewhat similar to that on January 30, 1966 except that the trough is modeled somewhat to the south of where it was then. The January 29-31, 1966 storm brought a widespread 6" or more snowfall from Washington, DC to Boston. In short, the forecast pattern suggests potential and it is similar to one case where the snowfall potential was realized. Nevertheless, one should not use the 1966 case to infer largely identical outcomes. The evolution of the storm will determine where the heaviest snows fall and how much snow falls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +8.91 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.458. On January 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.272 (RMM). The January 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.908. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere has continued to cool. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.7°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 16 hours ago, bluewave said: While the blocking has been more south based during December and January, it still was the 3rd greatest number of days with a -AO. So maybe we will see more -AO winters in the coming years? Notice how the previous top years seemed to cluster together with other -AO winters. the top year in that list didn't have much snow despite that and also being a weak el nino. think this season will easily beat the record? as a matter of fact, in that list amongst the top 6 2009-10 stands alone as the only season in which we had 50+ inches of snow. I'm going to make a little accessory list. historic snowfall seasons from the above group 2009-10 mod el nino #2 AO- 2010-11 strong la nina #6 AO- 1995-96 weak la nina #9 AO- 2002-03 mod el nino #10 AO- Looks like an even split in ENSO.....which lends to my point that there is only a weak correlation (AT BEST) between ENSO state and whether or not we have a historic snowfall season (my definition: 50" of snow). Chris, do you have a similar list for our top negative NAO seasons? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 The last two days of January are averaging 23degs.(18/28). Month to date is 35.5[+3.1]. January should end at 34.7[+2.3]. SNOW Potentials for Jan. 31-Feb. 03: GFS,EURO 14" CMC 20" NAM 16" NWS not giving numbers yet, but it sounds like 10"-21". A period of heavy snow, a period of moderate snow , a period of light snow, they say. So 6"+3"+1" minimum and doubled. 17*(58%RH) here at 6am. 19* by 9am. 24* by Noon 25* at 12:30pm. 26* at 1pm. 30* at 2pm Made it to 34* around 4pm. This quick rise to above freezing is a warning sign for the storm. 32* by 6pm. 28* by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 This January will be remembered for the warm minimum temperatures across the Northeast. Areas of Maine saw an extreme +14 to +16 minimum temperature departure January. My guess is that this is a result of the warming background pattern and the +EPO pumping mild Pacific air under an extreme south based block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be fair but continued unseasonably cold. In spite of bright sunshine, temperatures will likely top out in the upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 29° Newark: 31° Philadelphia: 33° A significant to potentially major snowstorm is likely in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions late Sunday through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 Not too enthused with the MJO forecast here. Keeps trending back to phase 6. Is this possible or is this just a wave dying in 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 this is a list of the biggest February snowstorms ranked by LE... 4.43"...17.5"...02/04-07/1920...mid 20's to low 30's...snow/ice/sleet for over 72 hours... 2.68"...12.5"...02/20/1921........mid 30's to low 20's...started as rain/sleet/ice... 2.62"...17.4"...02/03-04/1961...upper 20's to low 30's...changed to sleet/rain for a time... 2.22"...10.4"...02/03-04/1926...mid 20's to 30...mixed with sleet and ice... 2.08"...12.5"...02/13-14/2014...mid 20's to mid 30's to mid 20's...changed to rain for 12 hours... 1.86"...26.9"...02/11-12/2006...upper 20's...all snow... 1.82"...15.3"...02/09-10/1969...mid 30's to mid 20's... 1.78"...19.8"...02/16-17/2003...single digits to mid 20's... 1.53"...11.4"...02/08-09/2013...mid 30's to upper 20's...started as mix... 1.49"...17.6"...02/11-12/1983...upper teens to low 20's... 1.33"...10.0"...02/10/2010........low 30's... 1.26"...10.8"...02/04/1995........low to mid 30's...ended as rain... 1.13"...17.7"...02/06-07/1978...low 20's to low 30's... 1.09"...12.8"...02/11/1994.........mid teens to mid 20's...ended as ice... 1.06"...12.5"...02/07/1967.........mid teens to single digits... 1.04"...11.0"...02/03-04/1876...teens/20's... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2021 Share Posted January 30, 2021 No more cutter for next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 A storm will move into the Ohio Valley tomorrow with secondary development taking place off the Middle Atlantic coast. As a result, much of the region will experience its biggest snowfall since at least December 16-17, 2020. At present, much of the region appears to be in line for a significant to potentially major snowfall from late Sunday through Tuesday. There will be widespread amounts of 6" or above in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There will also be a swath of 12" or greater snowfall, but details concerning the location of the heaviest snow still remain somewhat uncertain. Enough warmer air could come in off the Atlantic Ocean to change the snow to mixed precipitation or rain along New Jersey's south shore, parts of Long Island and southeastern New England (Cape Cod and Nantucket). Some of the guidance even brings the mixing into New York City. Initial snowfall estimates: Boston: 5"-10" Bridgeport: 7"-14" Islip: 6"-12" New York City: 7"-14" Newark: 8"-16" Philadelphia: 6"-12" Poughkeepsie: 5"-10" The GFSv16 is more aggressive with snowfall amounts across New York City and Long Island. In contrast, the National Blend of Models shows at least a 40% probability of rain in New York City Tuesday morning, which results in a lower accumulation figure than seen on much of the individual guidance. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +6.65 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.904. On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.436 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.281. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere has continued to cool. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 14 hours ago, uncle W said: this is a list of the biggest February snowstorms ranked by LE... 4.43"...17.5"...02/04-07/1920...mid 20's to low 30's...snow/ice/sleet for over 72 hours... 2.68"...12.5"...02/20/1921........mid 30's to low 20's...started as rain/sleet/ice... 2.62"...17.4"...02/03-04/1961...upper 20's to low 30's...changed to sleet/rain for a time... 2.22"...10.4"...02/03-04/1926...mid 20's to 30...mixed with sleet and ice... 2.08"...12.5"...02/13-14/2014...mid 20's to mid 30's to mid 20's...changed to rain for 12 hours... 1.86"...26.9"...02/11-12/2006...upper 20's...all snow... 1.82"...15.3"...02/09-10/1969...mid 30's to mid 20's... 1.78"...19.8"...02/16-17/2003...single digits to mid 20's... 1.53"...11.4"...02/08-09/2013...mid 30's to upper 20's...started as mix... 1.49"...17.6"...02/11-12/1983...upper teens to low 20's... 1.33"...10.0"...02/10/2010........low 30's... 1.26"...10.8"...02/04/1995........low to mid 30's...ended as rain... 1.13"...17.7"...02/06-07/1978...low 20's to low 30's... 1.09"...12.8"...02/11/1994.........mid teens to mid 20's...ended as ice... 1.06"...12.5"...02/07/1967.........mid teens to single digits... 1.04"...11.0"...02/03-04/1876...teens/20's... wild that 1920-1921 was in back to back years someone should do a 3 day analysis of what happened in the 3 day storm lol and how come you dont have the Jan 2016 storm listed, it should be number 2 on the list, we had 3 inches of liquid equiv in that one! edit- you only included February not the overall list lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A storm will move into the Ohio Valley tomorrow with secondary development taking place off the Middle Atlantic coast. As a result, much of the region will experience its biggest snowfall since at least December 16-17, 2020. At present, much of the region appears to be in line for a significant to potentially major snowfall from late Sunday through Tuesday. There will be widespread amounts of 6" or above in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There will also be a swath of 12" or greater snowfall, but details concerning the location of the heaviest snow still remain somewhat uncertain. Enough warmer air could come in off the Atlantic Ocean to change the snow to mixed precipitation or rain along New Jersey's south shore, parts of Long Island and southeastern New England (Cape Cod and Nantucket). Some of the guidance even brings the mixing into New York City. Initial snowfall estimates: Boston: 5"-10" Bridgeport: 7"-14" Islip: 6"-12" New York City: 7"-14" Newark: 8"-16" Philadelphia: 6"-12" Poughkeepsie: 5"-10" The GFSv16 is more aggressive with snowfall amounts across New York City and Long Island. In contrast, the National Blend of Models shows at least a 40% probability of rain in New York City Tuesday morning, which results in a lower accumulation figure than seen on much of the individual guidance. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around January 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter. The SOI was +6.65 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.904. On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.436 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.281. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere has continued to cool. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely into the first week of February. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.8°. wow a lot of our locals are predicting over a foot of snow including here in SW Nassau County Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow a lot of our locals are predicting over a foot of snow including here in SW Nassau County Don. The overnight guidance (UKMET excluded) was great. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Morning thoughts... A major to perhaps borderline historic snowstorm (top 20 or above) will affect the region over the next several days. At 6:45 am, snow was falling in Washington, DC and parts of nearby Maryland. That snow will move into Baltimore early this morning and Philadelphia later this morning or early this afternoon. Clouds will increase and snow will push in Newark and New York City late this afternoon or perhaps early this evening. Snow will fall at varying intensities overnight. Temperatures will top out in the upper 20s and lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 28° Newark: 29° Philadelphia: 32° As the secondary storm develops and then wanders near the Middle Atlantic coastline, blizzard conditions are possible in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow into tomorrow night. An area running from eastern Pennsylvania through the New York City Metro area and across Nassau County could see some of the storm’s highest snowfall totals with embedded figures approaching or reaching two feet. Estimated snowfall totals: Allentown: 16”-24” Boston: 5”-10” Bridgeport: 12”-18” Islip: 8”-16” New York City: 14”-20” Newark: 14”-20” Philadelphia: 7”-14” Poughkeepsie: 8”-16” This storm will very likely join the 10 one-foot or larger snowstorms that have blanketed New York City since 2000. Six of those storms dumped 18” or more snow. Those 10 storms were: December 30, 2000: 12.0” February 16-17, 2003: 19.8” December 5-7, 2003: 14.0” January 22-23, 2005: 13.8” February 11-12, 2006: 26.9” February 25-26, 2010: 20.9” December 26-27, 2010: 20.0” January 26-27, 2011: 19.0” February 13-14, 2014: 12.5” January 22-24, 2016: 27.5” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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