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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Stormlover74
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Will begin a topic for Thursday - the 28th (r bleed Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night) for a rapidly deepening storm off the mid Atlantic coast but; will this miss the forum, at least the region along and north of I80? My gut tells me on too late for much up here n of i195 but bears watching for the mid level deformation zone well north -northwest of the storm center. I know this is a topic that needs concentrated forum discussion energy separate from the coming minor to yes, still moderate potential event for late 12/25-early 12/27. Drafted by 4P and very loosely.  I think we need to pin our hopes for plowable snow I80 north, on the 26th, but I could be VERY wrong about the 28th. Therefore, keeping it loosely developed.  Let me add; I know lots of folks here don't like the GGEM/GEPS, so thats our hope for the 28th (GEPS very very modest), and fairly warm up to I195. 

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Tomorrow will be another fair and cold day. Afterward, parts of the East could see one or two snowfall possibilities during the upcoming week.

During January 25-27, a system coming eastward could bring a swath of 1"-3" snows from Philadelphia to New York City with a few locally higher amounts. The higher amounts would likely be confined to the west of both cities. Areas just to the east of New York City could see little accumulation.

A few days later during January 28-29, another storm will impact parts of the East Coast. That storm will likely exit off the Southeast coast bringing accumulating snow to parts of the Southeast and lower Middle Atlantic region. The heaviest snows could be focused on the Richmond to Washington, DC areas and eastward. That area could pick up a moderate snowfall. As the storm rapidly intensifies offshore, it could bring a period of heavy wind-swept snow to parts of eastern Virginia, Maryland's Eastern Shore, and extreme southeastern New Jersey.

AO-/PNA- patterns typically do not produce significant or major snowstorms for the Middle Atlantic or southern New England regions in late January or early February. During the January 20-February 7, 1950-2020 period, there have been 5 storms that brought 4" or more snow to at least two of the following cities--Boston, New York City, or Philadelphia--during an AO-/PNA- pattern. None of those storms brought 6" or more snow to two or more of those cities. Therefore, until the potential events are within 72 hours or less and the guidance suggests otherwise, the base case is against a widespread significant or major snowfall.

Overall, the final week of January will feature generally below normal readings. Milder temperatures will likely return during the first week of February. Some of the guidance suggests that a period of much warmer than normal temperatures could develop.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around January 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +4.86 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.075.

On January 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.489 (RMM). The January 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.073.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The cooling will likely accelerate during the second half of January. As is typical for vortex-splitting events, the major piece of the polar vortex migrated to Eurasia. The end result has been an absence of severe cold in much of North America.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.5°.

 

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27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Do we finally see our first sub 20F in NYC CP , this season, Saturday morning the 30th. GFS TSections pretty cold. 

It does look like we could see our coldest temperatures of the winter next weekend. The models actually have the TPV  diving south toward Eastern New England. So this could be a legit Arctic outbreak.

5ADF562D-6806-4BE9-B0B9-B80267F10CFA.gif.c53ab6232f132ed91f82f81eb7166a35.gif

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The last 8 days of January are averaging 29degs.(24/33).        Making it 24degs., or -8.0.

Month to date is 37.4[+5.0].     January should end between>>> 34.0 to 35.3.

GFS runs still swinging wildly for the first week of February with highs of just 40 or up to 60.

Do not expect more than 2"---4" for the 26th.  Do not be surprised by a 0" mess of gulash.

Second storm looks GREAT for ..............Maryland-Virginia 6"+,   ah shucks!

A single digit T, "month ending kiss off", is possible.

Hey do not forget 5 years ago today we woke up to 30.5"(JFK)!!!.     That was after 3 of the 4 previous months had each been the warmest ever.

dwm500_wbgsm_20160123.gif

23*(46%RH) here at 6am.      22* at 7am.    24* by 9am.      28* by Noon.        30* at 1pm.        32* at 2pm.        33* at 3:30pm.       

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It does look like we could see our coldest temperatures of the winter next weekend. The models actually have the TPV  diving south toward Eastern New England. So this could be a legit Arctic outbreak.

5ADF562D-6806-4BE9-B0B9-B80267F10CFA.gif.c53ab6232f132ed91f82f81eb7166a35.gif

Also noticed the UK ditto. has NYC down to near 15 on Friday morning and 13 Saturday morning.  That is probably too cold but with northerly flow behind the departing late developing nor'easter and with a little luck a 1" snow depth, we could do it.

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6 hours ago, wdrag said:

Also noticed the UK ditto. has NYC down to near 15 on Friday morning and 13 Saturday morning.  That is probably too cold but with northerly flow behind the departing late developing nor'easter and with a little luck a 1" snow depth, we could do it.

Yeah, northerly flow may be the best chance for NYC to drop to 15° or lower.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I wonder if areas near the coast  will need to get back to a strong cutter pattern in early February to have a shot at its next 10” or greater snowstorm. The NYC 10.5 “ in mid-December was in a sea of strong cutters from late November through Christmas. The strong cutter storm track shut off after December 25th. Since then, it’s been weaker systems tracking across and stronger systems getting suppressed. This may be related to strong cutters causing weave breaks and eventually shaking up the pattern. 

I would take a chance with that  especially with front end stuff.

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and cold. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 32°

Newark: 34°

Philadelphia: 34°

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, a weakening system will bring a light snowfall to parts of the region. An area running from Philadelphia to New York City appear to be in line for 1”-3” snow. Lesser amounts are likely to the east. Later this week, a second larger storm will pass too far to the south and east to do more than graze much of the region. That storm’s heaviest snow will likely occur in eastern Virginia, Maryland’s Eastern Shore, and extreme southeastern New Jersey.

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

We could be in business if the MJO actually makes it all the way to Phase 8 during the 2nd week of February.

DC68660B-9558-4E57-8944-70FD4F9C5C5B.gif.bcdb7985f6096eaefad78a6f6cf7b331.gif

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Maybe NYC can go for a December and February snowier than January which it hasn’t done in a while.

I will pencil in a 0.2 for NYC so far with the undercount the other day.

Year........Dec....Jan....Feb

20-21.....10.5.....0.2......?

09-10.....12.4.....2.5.....36.9

07-08......2.9........T......9.0

05-06......9.7....2.0.....26.9

02-03.....11.0...4.7......26.1

00-01....13.4....8.3......9.5

82-83.....3.0.....1.9.....21.5

79-80.....3.5......2.0.....2.7

68-69.....7.0......1.0.....16.6

66-67.....9.1......1.4.....23.6

61-62.....7.7.......0.1.....9.6

48-49.....25.3....6.4......10.7

45-46.....15.6.....4.2......7.9

33-34......14.9.....0.1....27.9

32-33......9.4.......T.......12.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Could see temps in singe digits next weekend 1/29 - 1/31 and then do we see a Christmas eve type warmth (60s) a few days later during the Feb 4 - Feb 7th timeframe .

We haven’t seen any such sustained 60s-70s during winter since the 2017-18 period. If that happens I wonder what may then occur over the rest of the winter. 

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1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

We haven’t seen any such sustained 60s-70s during winter since the 2017-18 period. If that happens I wonder what may then occur over the rest of the winter. 

I dont think that kind of warmth would  be sustained and it would be more  like Christmas Eve, for a day or 36 hours in that timeframe.

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