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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Stormlover74
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Just now, CIK62 said:

Latest GEFS Extended Control Member has gone from 30" to 5" of snow.       The T's may turn out to be the big story.          I think we will go sub-zero somewhere between Jan. 25 and Feb. 10,  with or without the snow.         Long string of 32 degree or lower high T's possible.

It would be a shame if we wasted the cold, unless there was a record breaking cold spell, which isn’t close to a given.

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9 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I know we have and I hate it. It is worthless snow after March 15th, just melts fast and makes you think of shoulda, coulda, woulda. And if we get a big one after then I am even more angry because we could have had it when we could actually use it. I don't know what to tell you, I love snow storms, but the whole point of snow to me is to ski, play with my son, or just hike in the snow. Sure tracking is fun, but what's the point if you don't actually enjoy snow? If it snows over night and melts the next morning, did it even snow? I get many will disagree with that, but it's how I feel. I'd much rather have weekly 2-4 inches with minimal melting than one massive storm that melts in 2-5 days. Although I do enjoy a rare massive storm. 

how did you feel about the October snowstorm lol

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9 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I know we have and I hate it. It is worthless snow after March 15th, just melts fast and makes you think of shoulda, coulda, woulda. And if we get a big one after then I am even more angry because we could have had it when we could actually use it. I don't know what to tell you, I love snow storms, but the whole point of snow to me is to ski, play with my son, or just hike in the snow. Sure tracking is fun, but what's the point if you don't actually enjoy snow? If it snows over night and melts the next morning, did it even snow? I get many will disagree with that, but it's how I feel. I'd much rather have weekly 2-4 inches with minimal melting than one massive storm that melts in 2-5 days. Although I do enjoy a rare massive storm. 

It depends.  I thought the April 1996 and April 2003 snowstorms were a fitting end to amazing winters.  Both were really good snowstorms on Long Island.  So was the one we had a few years ago after a historic March.  April 2018.

 

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15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 4th time that NYC didn’t drop below 20° by mid-January.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2013-01-15 22 0
2 2021-01-15 20 1
- 2002-01-15 20 0
- 1932-01-15 20 0

this fits in with the pattern of all or nothing winters which started in 2015-16

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15 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

apparently you don't know when Meteorological Winter Ends............:facepalm:

I like astronomical winters over meteorological ones.  Astronomers are real scientists who make real predictions that actually are correct most of the time lol.  Winter ends at the spring equinox not on a day at the end of a month, which is just a matter of calendar convenience.

 

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

We always run the risk of suppression when there is a -strong -PNA trough in the West and a strong 50/50 low to our east. 

Is that why, in a previous era, Baltimore and DC used to get big snow storms in patterns like these?  I distinctly remember several times during the 80s when they feasted while we were suppressed.  A notable example is winter 89-90....especially December!

 

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The definition of luck these days is getting the Pacific to cooperate. Notice how the -PNA amps  of the Pacific Jet as it crosses the country around the 22nd. This 200KT Jet max allows the primary low to scoot by to our north. The secondary gets going further to the east as it squeezes under the 50/50.
 

C4FDEFF8-57AF-4EE7-BDEB-87765AFA9C60.png.3d951b389ebb0282207efef59d8e8397.png

33F36E24-1EE0-401A-8252-752E9CE86829.thumb.png.1e197929357c65a0d927ca4735243344.png


 

 

aren't we in a long term  multidecadal -PDO/-PNA pattern?  I remember the people in the West being really excited because of this.  Tacoman in Albuquerque sure loves it lol.

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14 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Also remember 2009-2010 ? That's easy to check out what the mood was around here in January which only had a couple inches after a 12.4 inch December and then February turned out to be historic with 36.9 inches.

and February started out horrible with the worst suppression of ALL TIME haha

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13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 1912-13 saw just 0.3" snow following 11.4" in December (December 24, 1912). 0.1" fell during January 1-15. That's the benchmark winter for least snowfall following a December that saw 10" or more snow.

                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   

I remember Uncle mentioning this year.  What's the least number of total snow events we've had in a season, Don?  I think it might have been 1997-98 with 2.

 

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

December 1989  and that happened after a big snowstorm in November.

I remember Joe Cioffi (who I admire and enjoyed very much during his time on News 12) betting the anchors in December 1989 that we would see over 20" of snow in the remainder of that winter, which as we know, much to the surprise of all of us who followed it,  never materialized.  In hindsight, that is a testament to how lousy the winters of the 80s were snow-wise. a) that a bet of 20" of additional snow in the winter was noteworthy and b) that we didn't reach it. .  I recall that after that brutal December 1989 that winter essentially ended at that point.  In fact I think it essentially ended for years until we started to get some teases in 1993 before the March 1993 superstorm, which preceded the Blizzard of 96, which proceeded our largely awesome 18 year run that followed.

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4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I remember Joe Cioffi (who I admire and enjoyed very much during his time on News 12) betting the anchors in December 1989 that we would see over 20" of snow in the remainder of that winter, which as we know, much to the surprise of all of us who followed it,  never materialized.  In hindsight, that is a testament to how lousy the winters of the 80s were snow-wise. a) that a bet of 20" of additional snow in the winter was noteworthy and b) that we didn't reach it. .  I recall that after that brutal December 1989 that winter essentially ended at that point.  In fact I think it essentially ended for years until we started to get some teases in 1993 before the March 1993 superstorm, which preceded the Blizzard of 96, which proceeded our largely awesome 18 year run that followed.

We had several misses in December.  One early in the month where it snowed all day but little stuck with temps in the mid 30s. Then there was the mid month storm where 4 to 8 was predicted but turned into a heavy rainstorm instead. We managed a few clippers in February and March before hitting 85 on march 13th

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2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I remember Joe Cioffi (who I admire and enjoyed very much during his time on News 12) betting the anchors in December 1989 that we would see over 20" of snow in the remainder of that winter, which as we know, much to the surprise of all of us who followed it,  never materialized.  In hindsight, that is a testament to how lousy the winters of the 80s were snow-wise. a) that a bet of 20" of additional snow in the winter was noteworthy and b) that we didn't reach it. .  I recall that after that brutal December 1989 that winter essentially ended at that point.  In fact I think it essentially ended for years until we started to get some teases in 1993 before the March 1993 superstorm, which preceded the Blizzard of 96, which proceeded our largely awesome 18 year run that followed.

Indeed....I intensely hated that 89-90 winter more than any other winter because of that brutal dry and cold weather that lasted for a month.  I think we also had a big bust in that month that was supposed to deliver 8 inches of snow and it ended up being rain lol.  Rain and thunder!  That was after the Feb 1989 bust which dropped 20 inches in ACY and nothing here, just hours of virga.  And then my mom passed away in June 1990 so she never got to experience the big snow winters :( and she loved to walk outside during snowstorms!

I wonder if there's any way to remodel those big busts with the same data from back then but run them on today's models to see if they'd be busts today too?

 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

We had several misses in December.  One early in the month where it snowed all day but little stuck with temps in the mid 30s. Then there was the mid month storm where 4 to 8 was predicted but turned into a heavy rainstorm instead. We managed a few clippers in February and March before hitting 85 on march 13th

Yeah I outlined that bust in my previous post.  I was so angry about that bust that I nearly punched a hole through my bedroom door back then lol. I wonder if there's a way to find out if Feb 1989 and Dec 1989 storms would still be busts today with our modern models but using the data from back in the days leading up to those notorious busts?

Feb 1989- suppressed more than modeled....8 inches predicted nothing delivered, hours of virga while ACY got 20 inches

Dec 1989- secondary intensified too close to the coast......8 inches predicted nothing delivered after initially starting as snow, turned to rain with thunder

Apr 1997- intensified too far north..... 16 inches predicted, 1-2 inches delivered, mostly rain

Mar 2001- intensified too far north.....2-3 feet predicted,  mostly rain, 4-6 inches delivered on the back end

Jan 2008- our last heavy snow warning.....8 inches predicted, mostly rain with a coating of snow here on Long Island

Jan 2015- intensified too far east...... 2-3 feet predicted, about a foot of snow actually fell (got reprieved exactly a year later.)

 

 

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Good Saturday morning everyone, Jan 16.
 
Bringing this back briefly to upcoming wintry weather: If you want winter, maybe a trip the next 7 days to the L Ontario snow belt. Added a map of this mornings NWS forecast for an idea of where to try and an idea of amount max regions.  This just goes on and on this week and looks to me like they are assured of a pretty good snow mobile season well into early February, at the least.  
 
Will not add NAEFS maps for what looks to be wintry qpf the 25th-26th, since I'd like to see this continue another couple of cycles. Just too early for me to start a topic (from my view). The previous discussion concerns, including ripping jet across the USA, blocking suppression etc.  First, I'd like to see us get something minor this week associated with the Wednesday and late Thursday short waves. 
 
Finally, while this excludes most of us,  there should be scattered or isolated high terrain dustings/coatings of snow I84 corridor later today through Monday (500MB troughs passing eastward through the northeast USA). Have a day. 
 

Screen Shot 2021-01-16 at 6.08.54 AM.png

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The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(32/42).            Making it 32degs., or just Normal.        The remainder of the month is averaging 24degs.(19/29).

There is no precipitation showing after today  till the 30th.        Long string of sub-32 highs is possible.

42*(95%RH) here at 6am.       43* at 7am.            46*/47* near Noon.

 

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23 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 4th time that NYC didn’t drop below 20° by mid-January.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2013-01-15 22 0
2 2021-01-15 20 1
- 2002-01-15 20 0
- 1932-01-15 20 0

NYC will extend the above 20° streak for at least another week as temperatures still average above normal for mid to late January.

 

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/16/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  16| SUN 17| MON 18| TUE 19| WED 20| THU 21| FRI 22| SAT 23 CLIMO
 X/N  52| 35  46| 35  46| 32  42| 26  35| 29  42| 31  37| 24  33 24 38

 

 

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Heaviest rainstorm for portions of the South Shore since December 5th.

 

1/16/2021   7:00 AM   NY-NS-46   Massapequa Park 1.2 N    1.35       NA   |     NA        NA   |    NA    NY Nassau  

Looks like nothing but screaming fast zonal flow right through 1/31 on all models. -PNA/RNA, nothing to slow it down and turn it meridional. Everything gets shredded and suppressed 

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