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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Stormlover74
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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air, suppression,  meh, looks like January is about done...

Until a couple runs of the models bring hope back............:facepalm:--you are basing that declaration on model runs past 5 days which practically everyone is critical of around here .............

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Only the 4th time that NYC didn’t drop below 20° by mid-January.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2013-01-15 22 0
2 2021-01-15 20 1
- 2002-01-15 20 0
- 1932-01-15 20 0
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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only the 4th time that NYC didn’t drop below 20° by mid-January.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2013-01-15 22 0
2 2021-01-15 20 1
- 2002-01-15 20 0
- 1932-01-15 20 0

1932 had only 5.3 inches snow for the season - 2002 had even less then that BUT 2013 had 12.2 in Feb and  7.3 snow in March at NYC - so far 10.5 in 2021

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34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Until a couple runs of the models bring hope back............:facepalm:--you are basing that declaration on model runs past 5 days which practically everyone is critical of around here .............

Yes but he meant met winter (December, January, February). March 1st is the beginning of meteorological spring. I'm hoping we get something going soon, my two year old keeps begging for snow!

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56 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

he's right, if Jan is done snowwise, there's one more month of met winter.  

no kidding - the way he worded made it sound like he was saying FEBRUARY would not have any snow........and March and April don't matter

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But the lack of any measurable snowfall in NYC during the first half of January is unusual following a 10”+ December since 2000.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Snowfall 
Jan 1-15
1 2010 20.1 10.8
2 2003 19.8 6.2
3 2000 13.4 1.8
4 2009 12.4 0.8
5 2002 11.0 1.6
6 2020 10.5 T

unusual yes BUT IMO we still don't know how much snowfall we will have the rest of the season - impossible to predict - also check out what happened in 1933-34

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only certainty is that we will need some help from the Pacific to reach normal to above normal snowfall. That will be the wild card going forward. I am hoping that we can see some improvements in that department.

Also remember 2009-2010 ? That's easy to check out what the mood was around here in January which only had a couple inches after a 12.4 inch December and then February turned out to be historic with 36.9 inches.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

But the lack of any measurable snowfall in NYC during the first half of January is unusual following a 10”+ December since 2000.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Snowfall 
Jan 1-15
1 2010 20.1 10.8
2 2003 19.8 6.2
3 2000 13.4 1.8
4 2009 12.4 0.8
5 2002 11.0 1.6
6 2020 10.5 T

Winter 1912-13 saw just 0.3" snow following 11.4" in December (December 24, 1912). 0.1" fell during January 1-15. That's the benchmark winter for least snowfall following a December that saw 10" or more snow.

                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
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36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 1912-13 saw just 0.3" snow following 11.4" in December (December 24, 1912). 0.1" fell during January 1-15. That's the benchmark winter for least snowfall following a December that saw 10" or more snow.

                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   
                   

I guess it goes with the big snowfall swings that have become common in recent times. It’s been a rollercoaster ride between record highs and lows. The North America snow extent anomalies since October followed this pattern.

4204DD8D-8AC7-4DEF-A05C-567ECE5A4D9F.png.8472a8b10704d402da59a144c1f5dbfb.png

 

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