mikem81 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: AO sure looks to be going positive ... Today is the 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, mikem81 said: Today is the 12th Use the link for today's https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 My attitude right now is just stay tuned no matter what models say today. Things can change. Right now, it will be tough to get significant snow given current projections, but an oops snow in an unfavorable pattern can still happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: My attitude right now is just stay tuned no matter what models say today. Things can change. Right now, it will be tough to get significant snow given current projections, but an oops snow in an unfavorable pattern can still happen. Its not an unfavorable pattern at all modeled on every model and ensembles after this week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Its not an unfavorable pattern at all modeled on every model and ensembles after this week. that's 7 to 10 days away as usual. The calls for colder weather and storms have not come and models verify warmer and drier as it gets closer.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories at this time. Can't even get a SCA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that's 7 to 10 days away as usual. The calls for colder weather and storms have not come and models verify warmer and drier as it gets closer.... Are you even looking at the models or following what Allsnow has been saying ? Check out the Mid Atlantic and SNE forums in regards to this upcoming pattern.The more favorable pattern is going to start next week with the EPO, NAO and AO being favorable. As far as snow? We just have to wait and see but its going to feel like winter soon. Get some sleep now 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Are you even looking at the models or following what Allsnow has been saying ? Check out the Mid Atlantic and SNE forums in regards to this upcoming pattern.The more favorable pattern is going to start next week with the EPO, NAO and AO being favorable. As far as snow? We just have to wait and see but its going to feel like winter soon. Get some sleep now stop reading what out of area forums are saying-a great pattern for Boston does not necessarily mean a great pattern here. if you look at models and what people are saying HERE 1. PAC jet is strong, record breaking and shows no sign of abating 2 airmass is polar/continental and not arctic-hence Saturday's event is rain 3. models continue to push the great pattern out, first it was 1/15, now it's 1/20...see the trend-remind you of anything? - it will snow probably a couple to a few times but this pattern doesn't seem as exciting as it did last week 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 How can anyone hate calm and sunny low/mid 40’s?! I mean, I’d much rather have 60’s right now, but it’s the dead of winter and it still feels very much alive outside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, Cfa said: How can anyone hate calm and sunny low/mid 40’s?! I mean, I’d much rather have 60’s right now, but it’s the dead of winter and it still feels very much alive outside. Today was a beaut clark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, Cfa said: How can anyone hate calm and sunny low/mid 40’s?! I mean, I’d much rather have 60’s right now, but it’s the dead of winter and it still feels very much alive outside. did feel nice in the sun today. If it isn't going to snow give me warmth 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Here is the NYC snowfall for within 5 days of the week 2 analog composite. There is only so much snowfall NYC can get with a trough in the West. The range of NYC snowfall for 10:analog dates was a T to 5.6”. Snowfall outcomes would improve if the trough can shift off the West Coast beyond the date of this composite. T 5.7 3.5 2.4 1.5 1.9 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.3 Did any of those years have a huge block? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: I think we’ll need that -PNA trough over the Western US to back off a bit from what the week 2 EPS has. In March 2018 it pulled just off the West Coast with higher heights over Southern Canada. This allowed a ridge in Minnesota for separation between systems. But the wave lengths are longer now in January when compared to March. A ridge in Minnesota might just be a clipper pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I love the weenie icons from the 2 board trolls. Excites me everytime I get them 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Sighhhh, no insight. I see the stats written herein on little or no snow NYC in this pattern that seems to be changing from ne -sw to w-e systems later in the month. 12z/12 NAEFS is basically dry (less than 5MM North of 35N eastern USA) after whatever occurs the 16th, til at least the 24th. I see the12z/12 EPS has something for the Carolinas to NYC around late 20 or 21 and that could happen but? So far, its not in the GEFS/NAEFS. Have my fingers crossed for the NAEFS to start showing something legit soon (10 mm in 24 hours), even if it trails the EPS/GEFS by a day or so. The one bit of good news from my perspective: IFFF????? we get something later in the month, the thicknesses and BL temps might be cold enough for snow ratios 12 to 1 or higher??? IFFFFF we can hold the projected cooler thicknesses and BL temps later in the month. I too like the pattern as many discuss here...just have to respect climo and blocking suppression and getting everything to mesh right. Right now: watching what may happen the 16th for a few hours high terrain of I84. Boundary layer warmth is the problem there. Til tomorrow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: But the wave lengths are longer now in January when compared to March. A ridge in Minnesota might just be a clipper pattern This is the composite for the last 10 La Niña events to reach 6” or more in NYC during January and February. That’s why we need that -PNA trough out West to pull back off the West Coast at storm time. Like I said in the post above, relevant details like that may not be known for a while yet. And there may have probably been lesser than 6” storms that had more leeway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: did feel nice in the sun today. If it isn't going to snow give me warmth Agree. Last two winters warm and rainy. I’ll take this for my sanity if it isn’t going to snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 27 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Today was a beaut clark. Absolutely. I’ll take this all winter long. 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: did feel nice in the sun today. If it isn't going to snow give me warmth Precisely. I wish this was our normal climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yes, 1985 had the strongest block. But it had much more Arctic air since we had the historic Arctic outbreak in January before it snowed. So it’s no surprise that that was the best snowfall outcome. 2 moderate events just under 6” in NYC. The abundance of Arctic air helped compensate for the big -PNA trough out West. That’s why I am hoping we can get the trough to pull off the West Coast during the retrogression so we could do better. Since there is only so much snow we can get with the trough sitting in the West. AO 1985 1 18 -5.693 1985 1 19 -6.226 1985 1 20 -5.581 1985 1 21 -4.224 1985 1 22 -2.916 1985 1 23 -2.175 1985 1 24 -1.791 1985 1 25 -1.765 1985 1 26 -1.843 1985 1 27 -1.908 1985 1 28 -1.656 1985 1 29 -1.258 1985 1 30 -0.766 1985 1 31 -0.275 1985 2 1 -0.488 1985 2 2 -1.502 1985 2 3 -1.968 1985 2 4 -1.905 1985 2 5 -2.345 1985 2 6 -3.310 1985 2 7 -3.541 1985 2 8 -3.360 1985 2 9 -3.435 1985 2 10 -3.569 1985 2 11 -3.455 1985 2 12 -3.381 NYC snowfall 1985-02-01 37 32 34.5 1.3 30 0 0.39 0.0 1 1985-02-02 35 25 30.0 -3.3 35 0 0.50 4.3 1 1985-02-03 30 19 24.5 -8.9 40 0 0.00 0.0 4 1985-02-04 33 17 25.0 -8.5 40 0 0.00 0.0 4 1985-02-05 28 23 25.5 -8.2 39 0 0.23 3.3 3 1985-02-06 28 24 26.0 -7.8 39 0 0.17 2.4 7 1985-02-07 30 20 25.0 -8.9 40 0 T T 7 1985-02-08 23 14 18.5 -15.6 46 0 T T 5 A negative pna will definitely help us pump up the ridge in the east. We will not have to worry about suppression. We just have to hope the NAO and EPO stays negative. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: did feel nice in the sun today. If it isn't going to snow give me warmth We must live on a different planet. I still have snow OTG and It hasn't been out of the 30's for a week. Today was 38 after a low of 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: We must live on a different planet. I still have snow OTG and It hasn't been out of the 30's for a week. Today was 38 after a low of 16. Nothing on the ground down here outside of parking lot piles from the 12/17 storm-reached 43 degrees....has been b/w 34 and 38 for a good week here until today.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: stop reading what out of area forums are saying-a great pattern for Boston does not necessarily mean a great pattern here. if you look at models and what people are saying HERE 1. PAC jet is strong, record breaking and shows no sign of abating 2 airmass is polar/continental and not arctic-hence Saturday's event is rain 3. models continue to push the great pattern out, first it was 1/15, now it's 1/20...see the trend-remind you of anything? - it will snow probably a couple to a few times but this pattern doesn't seem as exciting as it did last week You're right. It looks more exciting tbh. Doesn't mean anything will actually happen though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 High of 40 here today which is +6 for this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Without this nao block the trough in the west would be a nightmare. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, Rjay said: You're right. It looks more exciting tbh. Doesn't mean anything will actually happen though. It definitely does look more exciting with the blocking signature. Just have to hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. The dry weather could last through much of this week. A strong flow of Pacific Air will push much milder air eastward. High temperatures could approach or break records in the Northern Plains tomorrow. The temperature could make a run at 50° on either Thursday or Friday in New York City before somewhat cooler air returns. The first 10-15 days of January will likely be generally warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada overall. After January 10, the EPS continues to shows a transition during which a trough will move into the East. During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether such potential continues into February. Uncertainty about the long-range has increased. There is emerging ensemble guidance showing that the AO could go positive in the closing week of January. That outcome would likely lead to a warmup near the beginning of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter. The SOI was +17.39 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.705. On January 11 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.243 (RMM). The January 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.384. Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could still reverse at 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia. The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January. There is emerging ensemble guidance suggesting that blocking could fade during the last week of January but there remains considerable uncertainty. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.7°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The CMC continues to be really wet for Saturday. It's probably overdone, but it seems like we're due for one of these southerly flow soakers. If the CMC is right, that would be some heavy wet snow in the VT mountains and possibly the Adirondacks. Probably also the higher elevations of the Catskills, Berkshires, and Taconics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Every model has a storm next weekend Para gfs being the coldest so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: We must live on a different planet. I still have snow OTG and It hasn't been out of the 30's for a week. Today was 38 after a low of 16. Yup but other than shaded northerly aspects there's no snow left here. 15/39 and grey, the grey made it feel cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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