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Typhoon Tip

Dec (Edit: Jan1/..2 ) multi-faceted ptype mess potential...

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14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I'll just measure under the roof overhang on the side of the barn. It always drifts to a foot down there even if only 3-4 inches fell.

Just let the cocorahs guy do the measuring.

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29 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

No worries. She has always said  5.5" sounds great for me. Been hoping to get at least 6" out of this thing all along so that is close enough. LOL

 

Congrats 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

The models all have different banding signatures at this point for NNE. Someone will get 8"+ from this thing if they get lucky with the banding. Otherwise, 4-6, IMO.

That’s where I’m at... I think it’s a widespread 3-7” for NNE but someone could deform their way to 8-9” though it may be like Northern NY and southern Quebec.

I also think snow growth will be real shitty, we could also go to sleet if the mid level warm tongue punches further north as these system have been known to do.  I think it could be like 7:1 ratios for a lot of us in the means.  Sort of like 3-5” of dense white material on 0.50-0.75” water.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Think I’ll take the under. 

The WCB on this one has looked kind of sickly on most runs. Not seeing that clean thump look. I think 6+ is going to have to be where CCB actions gets involved (not counting the upslope spots). 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The WCB on this one has looked kind of sickly on most runs. Not seeing that clean thump look. I think 6+ is going to have to be where CCB actions gets involved (not counting the upslope spots). 

Hello. Is it me you’re looking for?

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32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Think I’ll take the under. 

Something never uttered: "Boy, that mid level warmth came in a lot slower than I expected".

At least for here,  SVT always one of the first spots for the mid level punch (in CNE/NNE) with a LP driving into WNY.  Take the under on 4-5" for here. 1-2" then IP, then ZR, then rain/drizzle.

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Quote
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The ensemble model solutions are in decent agreement on the long
wave pattern through late next week. While the pattern will become
less amplified...it`ll be an active and progressive split flow
pattern. In the dailies..high pressure builds by to our north
Saturday night and Sunday behind an exiting storm system. A
southern stream impulse is on our doorstep by Sunday night...featuring
a developing coastal low over the southeast CONUS that promises
to be a coast hugger that eventually crosses the Gulf of Maine on
Monday. The system slows down and is captured by the upper flow
Monday night...and will meander over the Gulf of Maine into
Wednesday. The trend over the past few runs has been slower...
colder...and a bit further offshore with this system. That
track would favor the heaviest QPF along the coastal plain
mainly in the form of snow during the day Monday. Monday night
through Wednesday...lingering clouds and scattered mainly
mountain snow showers in the cold and blustery cyclonic flow on
the backside of this system. High pressure and rising heights
will bring a welcome respite from Wednesday night into Friday.
The next southern stream impulse and associated surface low
should bring a return to unsettled weather by the Friday night -
Saturday timeframe. This will be my last shift after nearly 34
years. It`s been my pleasure to serve you.

At least Schwibs goes out calling a snowstorm.

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8 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

How good are these maps at excluding sleet?

Better than the tropical tidbits ones that include sleet as 10:1 snow.  They do differentiate snow vs sleet but it’s at 10:1 ratio which is actually pretty high for this event.  I mean half the issue is do you agree with the model’s p-type output, but the snow maps are just pure 10:1 ratio of the snow p-type.

 

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7 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Not good

These shouldn’t be bad. You can clearly see the modeled p-types.  Those snow maps only count the snow portion of it.

Like that snow map didn’t count the heavy sleet in Mass.

07C69B31-CF0B-4443-BEF9-04E1AA25FBC3.thumb.png.794a205d2dc49e8b695281a42e2bfb71.png

D8046EF0-A700-41C1-BB04-33B476BA8443.thumb.png.46ac47a2680693e927c4a9e8c189ac47.png

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

These shouldn’t be bad. You can clearly see the modeled p-types.  Those snow maps only count the snow portion of it.

Like that snow map didn’t count the heavy sleet in Mass.

07C69B31-CF0B-4443-BEF9-04E1AA25FBC3.thumb.png.794a205d2dc49e8b695281a42e2bfb71.png

D8046EF0-A700-41C1-BB04-33B476BA8443.thumb.png.46ac47a2680693e927c4a9e8c189ac47.png

Going to be decent ping fest mixed from from the pike to CT border; crazy how it stops at the CT line.

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Just now, Whineminster said:

Could see some birches bending on this one.   Nuisance icing, but I'll take it. 

Nah, ground is warm.

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