Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering if the EPS carries it or at least some -

The GEFs actually have several members with blizzards.  Sort of imagine "PD1" but a further N. track compared to that one - Will would be the better one to reference but I'm pretty sure that first variation of the straight E Miller B boning on northern extent scenario had milk cirrus and flurries to the Pike with CCB blizzard conditions in PHL-DCA...  Digress -

Another aspect that's interesting is that 2/3rds of those members have a storm and of those, they're all snow really... Usually at this range, they are all rain - not sure if that means anything but.

Anyway, point is ... I wonder if the operational Euro is a rare weaker outlier

You're sounding like a weenie...just pooh pooh any model that doesn't produce snow.   j/k  :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

You're sounding like a weenie...just pooh pooh any model that doesn't produce snow.   j/k  :lol:

What - your post does not logically follow - I'm not 'pooh pooh' ing anything - the model could certainly be a weak outlier.

I'm asking - and it matters quite analytically -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Come on, man, lighten up.  Didn't you see the "j/k"?

No, I did not - ha ...

Truth be told ...I spend a goodly amount of recent energy explaining to folks that there's no use in prediction beyond 5 days in this overall circumstance, so at risk of being a hypocrite.  Trying to make a little chicken salad out of a chicken shit pattern is tough. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm wondering if the EPS carries it or at least some -

The GEFs actually have several members with blizzards.  Sort of imagine "PD1" but a further N. track compared to that one - Will would be the better one to reference but I'm pretty sure that first variation of the straight E Miller B boning on northern extent scenario had milk cirrus and flurries to the Pike with CCB blizzard conditions in PHL-DCA...  Digress -

Another aspect that's interesting is that 2/3rds of those members have a storm and of those, they're all snow really... Usually at this range, they are all rain - not sure if that means anything but.

Anyway, point is ... I wonder if the operational Euro is a rare weaker outlier

I think what you're describing is something like Feb 2, 2015?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Curious did any MET predicted a poor snowfall season with great blocking? If so kudos. 

I predicted blocking (often east-based) from Dec into a portion of January,  and slightly below avg snowfall....blocking will likely persist a bit longer than I had thought, though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Curious did any MET predicted a poor snowfall season with great blocking? If so kudos. 

Just a cautionary note...I would not be issuing kudos to anyone, right now, just as I was puzzled why some where high-fiving the Jan 2011 vibe back near New Year....the tenor of the season changes so fast. There remains a path to a season altering event as we near peak climo.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just a cautionary note...I would not be issuing kudos to anyone, right now, just as I was puzzled why some where high-fiving the Jan 2011 vibe back near New Year....the tenor of the season changes so fast. There remains a path to a season altering event as we near peak climo.

True dat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I don’t think we/anybody can tell where the next few weeks may go..good or bad. It seems very uncertain currently. 

The NAO block could completely break down, and we could still get a decent event(s) in Feb...hell, I remember we stole a mod event in Feb 2018, while I was in Uganda. Look at Feb 2006...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I missed feb 06 in Philly, was at Pitt at the time for school. Still pissed I missed this...

 

9D6B4CA7-F3C2-4AA5-B432-91D49C35E314.gif

Broke the NYC all-time record for single snowstorm thanks to that fat 300 mile long band.

I remember the Jeff Beradelli write-up after the storm basically explaining and emphasizing that band is what justified the Central Park measurement when many were questioning it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...