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40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Not sure I'd use "cold" to describe the pattern. It's more like moderated junk or just meh. Outside of some brief cold shots there doesn't look to be any true cold and certainly nothing sustaining. 

Right now, the pattern sucks and blows....next week, it just blows.

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

TPV shreds and squashes every storm on the 12z runs.  We are left with  a cold and dry pattern with snow showers.

We could get skunked...it’s always a possibility. Yesterday showed us how it can be if things can break right. Today is showing us what happens if they don’t break right.
 

Be prepared for either scenario. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kind of a morbid curiosity as the how long the region can avoid snow in a fair to now good pattern....going to be over a month and counting....

Didn’t you just say the pattern sucks and blows now, and next week it just blows?  
 

So blows means good lol? I’m A tad confused. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was being sarcastic.

The pattern does not blow, however, the sensible weather as presently modeled does.

Ok gotcha.
 

I’m not too worried about an OP run 5-7 days out. I know the ensembles stepped back some last night on next Friday...but we’re 7 days out, I mean that’s an eternity.  
 

Who knows..no worries either way. 

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31 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure I'd use "cold" to describe the pattern. It's more like moderated junk or just meh. Outside of some brief cold shots there doesn't look to be any true cold and certainly nothing sustaining. 

Next week isn't a start of a colder period?

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I don't think this is a good pattern frankly - 

It may help our collective 'consternation'/frustration factor if we stopped dressing it up that way.  That instills an expectation?  And it may just be one that ... quite frankly appears to be faux if trend has any objective usefulness to anyone.  Eventually, it's hard to refute consistency - lol.  Seriously though.. Gee wiz.   For every passing day and week of culminating bad model performance and unrealized verification, we keep bangin' a great pattern drum.  It starts to look like its nothing more than tranced visions in medicine paint dancing around a tribal fire -

I, and probably NCEP ... heh, have been noting that running a blocky 55th+ hemisphere over top of raging HC/compression ... is a modeling nightmare.  Well, maybe ...just maybe that also means the pattern is a nightmare ?  

 

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