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January 2021


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You know Ray, You ,Scott are saying FEB looks serviceable , great! But crap, that's weeks out , we are all waiting for the "change in January " and I know, it got pushed back,  It would be awesome if the next few weeks and beyond deliver, I just keep getting sucked back in, and then pissed off(lol) hope your right......

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Just now, 512high said:

You know Ray, You ,Scott are saying FEB looks serviceable , great! But crap, that's weeks out , we are all waiting for the "change in January " and I know, it got pushed back,  It would be awesome if the next few weeks and beyond deliver, I just keep getting sucked back in, and then pissed off(lol) hope your right......

I think the NAO holding into at least the first week of Feb is probably a pretty good bet. Not sure about PD, but....

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Continued theme on EPS 50mb temps and PV displacement. Current guidance too fast to break it down. That's a good thing into early Feb.

 

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies look more favorable into first half of Feb. I figured that would happen. Looks near to just AN temps with a nice -NAO.

Yeah that is much better looking than Monday. NAO exerting more influence. Hopefully the break down of the blocking keeps getting pushed out.....you'd expect that to be a theme as guidance starts to "see" the SSW better as it downwells.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah that is much better looking than Monday. NAO exerting more influence. Hopefully the break down of the blocking keeps getting pushed out.....you'd expect that to be a theme as guidance starts to "see" the SSW better as it downwells.

Just an example. It's more noticeable when you compare the same date 4 or 5 days ago.

image.png.f78e6df1fbd728500defad8b6ea054c8.png

 

 

image.png.1298d32615ac400a8d2b8eb752100cb7.png

 

 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just an example. It's more noticeable when you compare the same date 4 or 5 days ago.

 

 

 

Yeah the anomaly difference is like 3-4C and the stratospheric PV is squashed/elongated more on the recent runs.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well maybe, I'm just pointing out some positive factors. I'm not on 10-11 train though.

Yeah gonna be hard to get a KU type system in this pattern I think....if there's a window though, I'd prob pick late January when the trough retrogrades into the GOA and may provide a little bit of temporary ridging into the Rockies while we still have a good Atlantic in place.

Maybe something like going on an early 1994 run is definitely viable though.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well maybe, I'm just pointing out some positive factors. I'm not on 10-11 train though.

 

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Delayed not denied. Patience grasshoppers.  If we bang 30 to 40 in the next 4 weeks I will be near climo . I remain confident 

Not to nitpick, but 2011 would be more like 50-70" in 4 weeks....I ripped off 63 inches between 1/7 and 2/2 in 2011.

30-40 would be more like a Feb '14 or a Jan '94 run. Nothing to sneeze at obviously...I'd take it and run.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Litchfield county is going to pound snow late tomorrow night. No one is forecasting it either, but if models correct that a sapling snapper out there 

Models have been hitting there and the berks and not a mention of it for several runs..........lol

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Not to nitpick, but 2011 would be more like 50-70" in 4 weeks....I ripped off 63 inches between 1/7 and 2/2 in 2011.

30-40 would be more like a Feb '14 or a Jan '94 run. Nothing to sneeze at obviously...I'd take it and run.

I could def. see that 30-40" figure. 

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