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January 2021 General Discussion


Hoosier
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8 hours ago, IWXwx said:

I can't remember the last time that we've had such a winter season snooze-fest.  It's been cloudy with highs in the mid 30's and lows in the mid 20's for the past four days and the forecast is the same here for the next seven days. There's usually a little surprise system that breaks up the monotony.

Not sure you have to go too far back at least at GRR although we are pushing some futility records at this point but that looks to change.

First the boring part:

For most January`s in Southwest Michigan getting more than 4 days
in a row with no precipitation is unusual. However, in this
January, it is looking like we can get at least 6 days and if the
00z ECMWF is correct we will get 8 days in a row with no
measurable precipitation! If the 00z GFS is correct, it will only
be 6 days. So, just how unusual is getting a week of no
precipitation in January at GRR? Well the last January at GRR
with at least 7 days in a row with no measurable precipitation was
2013. In that case, we had a trace of precipitation each day. In
2012 we had 8 days with no precipitation at all from the 4th
through the 12th. Since 2013, the longest string of no
precipitation days has been 5 day in 2019. For most January`s at
GRR stings of more than 4 days happens less than once a year.

And now the futility part:

Since at GRR, we will by then be in 2nd place for the least
snowfall on record for the season (through the 15th, assuming it
does not snow until then) with only 7.5 inches of snow, this
could be the change, those who like outdoor winter sports are
looking for. By the way, first place for the least snowfall for
the season, by the 15th of January, is 7.2 inches in 1906.

 

 

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Some legit lake-effect in southeast WI this morning. Remnants should eventually make it to Chicago, but I imagine it won't be quite as intense. 

Kenosha: KENW 081401Z 35006KT 1/4SM SN FG OVC012 00/M02 A3030 RMK AO2 P0000 T00001022

Racine: KRAC 081405Z AUTO 03012G21KT 1/2SM SN FG OVC005 01/M01 A3031 RMK AO2 P0001 T00061006

les010821.thumb.png.e2f3ad39973b0b33f7fc4c4cb2d7553e.png

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29 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Some legit lake-effect in southeast WI this morning. Remnants should eventually make it to Chicago, but I imagine it won't be quite as intense. 

Kenosha: KENW 081401Z 35006KT 1/4SM SN FG OVC012 00/M02 A3030 RMK AO2 P0000 T00001022

Racine: KRAC 081405Z AUTO 03012G21KT 1/2SM SN FG OVC005 01/M01 A3031 RMK AO2 P0001 T00061006

les010821.thumb.png.e2f3ad39973b0b33f7fc4c4cb2d7553e.png

We have some light flurries falling also here in Michigan’s thumb thanks to a north east wind and Lake Huron. Not showing up on the radar here like out you’re guys way though.

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2 minutes ago, slow poke said:

We have some light flurries falling also here in Michigan’s thumb thanks to a north east wind and Lake Huron. Not showing up on the radar here like out you’re guys way though.

Nice! Yeah, It's too shallow for DTX or APX radars to pick up. These echoes are from the closer-to-the-lake and more sensitive terminal doppler, TMKE. It doesn't looks as impressive on the NWS radar.

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36 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Some legit lake-effect in southeast WI this morning. Remnants should eventually make it to Chicago, but I imagine it won't be quite as intense. 

Driveway coated here already. Intensity comes and goes but at times it ain’t bad at all.

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2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I have at times found myself driving in snow when none was in the forecast, pulled up my radar app and gone "WTF?! There's nothing here."

That's been happening a lot this week! With all the fog and low clouds around, we have more than enough moisture. Local industry has largely been feeding the surprise flurries/snow showers (likely a combo of heat/steam and particulates that act as ice nuclei). There have even been isolated locations around that have picked up 1-2" of accumulation where they've been more persistent. 

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19 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

That's been happening a lot this week! With all the fog and low clouds around, we have more than enough moisture. Local industry has largely been feeding the surprise flurries/snow showers (likely a combo of heat/steam and particulates that act as ice nuclei). There have even been isolated locations around that have picked up 1-2" of accumulation where they've been more persistent. 

1”-2” from industrial pollution/smoke stacks? That’s pretty cool actually, never herd of that before. 

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8 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

Never got a flake. Cloudy, in the 30's again all day...

No sun since Monday. What a joke. Indianapolis is experiencing the cloudiest start to a January since 2005. 


Current snowfall for this month is 0.3 inches, as of the 5th. Snowfall total for DAY is currently at 6.8 inches. Currently sitting at the 4th least snowiest January on record.

Top 10 Least Snowiest Januaries:
1. None - 1944
2. 0.1" - 1989
3. 0.2" - 1923
4. 0.3" - 2021 (as of 1/5)
5. 0.4" - 1916
6. 0.7" - 1950
6 (T). 0.7" - 1919
8. 0.9" - 2020
8 (T). 0.9" 1908
10. 1.0" - 1928
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10 hours ago, Spartman said:

No sun since Monday. What a joke. Indianapolis is experiencing the cloudiest start to a January since 2005. 


Current snowfall for this month is 0.3 inches, as of the 5th. Snowfall total for DAY is currently at 6.8 inches. Currently sitting at the 4th least snowiest January on record.

Top 10 Least Snowiest Januaries:
1. None - 1944
2. 0.1" - 1989
3. 0.2" - 1923
4. 0.3" - 2021 (as of 1/5)
5. 0.4" - 1916
6. 0.7" - 1950
6 (T). 0.7" - 1919
8. 0.9" - 2020
8 (T). 0.9" 1908
10. 1.0" - 1928

To be fair showing rankings of least snowy January's 8 days into the month is pretty pointless. That said, 1944 was an absolute train wreck of January. At Detroit there was no measurable snow until January 31st when a sloppy 1.6" fell mixed with some rain. That would have been a fun month :wacko:

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I was really hoping to retain it prior to the colder pattern, but looks like whatever is left will likely melt almost completely by Thursday. If we don't get any snow with push of cold air after that, it will be worst case scenario - cold and brown. Euro gives some hope of at least a couple inches, we'll see. Still a long ways off. What a ridiculous dry spell, but that's been par for the course here. We've had very long periods of dry weather since June. 

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Todays forecast in NE IL was a huge bust. 

I never like to bust a forecast, but figure if the bust is for less clouds than forecast, that would be appreciated by most given how cloudy it's been lately. You're probably in the minority lol and you get your clouds back today and probably through tomorrow too.  

 

 

I know Wednesday-Wednesday night looks mild ahead of the front, but I wouldn't lock in temps being able to rise that much yet. That kind of warmth aloft coming in will mean a sharp inversion locks in if there's existing cloud cover (which looks quite possible) and surface advection will be from over areas still with deeper snow cover. Wouldn't be surprised if forecast high temps bust low on Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

 

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