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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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19 hours ago, wncsnow said:

It's still generally 5 to 10 degrees above average on non rainy or wedge days. I guess that's an improvement over last year still but we are going to have to wait a while for any snow chances 

I'll say this..... if the long range pattern comes to fruition, we will be tracking some big dogs in the next couple of weeks. I have not seen a better pattern than what's being forecasted in many years. This is what we have all been waiting on......

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30 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I'll say this..... if the long range pattern comes to fruition, we will be tracking some big dogs in the next couple of weeks. I have not seen a better pattern than what's being forecasted in many years. This is what we have all been waiting on......

Shouldn't be long and we should start seeing digital snow show up ....

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3 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I'll say this..... if the long range pattern comes to fruition, we will be tracking some big dogs in the next couple of weeks. I have not seen a better pattern than what's being forecasted in many years. This is what we have all been waiting on......

Yeah, we could have something that rivals the great virga blizzard of 02.

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

Yeah, we could have something that rivals the great virga blizzard of 02.

I had one heck of a good snowstorm in early Jan '02

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40 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I had one heck of a good snowstorm in early Jan '02

I don’t doubt it since I just picked a year out of thin air. :)

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9 hours ago, jburns said:

I don’t doubt it since I just picked a year out of thin air. :)

ID_284.gif

 

Nearly bullseyed here.  She was a beaut Clark.  :P

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On 12/23/2020 at 3:23 PM, griteater said:

A few long range thoughts.  I believe early to mid January will be favorable for a winter storm or 2 for the mid-Atlantic and north...and same for all of the east coast including our forum for mid to late January as enhanced convection should begin to move out of Indonesia during the 2nd week of January, improving the pattern over Western Canada / Eastern Alaska.  I would say that the chances of a large and widespread winter storm for our forum to be much higher than normal for mid-January to early February.  Time will tell, we can revisit down the road. 

Still good with this.  Agree with @CAD_Wedge_NC that chances for a big one are elevated.  But it's' going to take a little time.  The Pacific pattern is straight awful the first 10 to 12 days of Jan, then it should gradually improve.  We have what looks to be a strong -NAO episode coming in 8-10 days.  Meanwhile, we have a legit, downwelling SSW (strat warming) on the doorstep - Euro is locked in on Jan 5 which is earlier than I anticipated would happen.  In addition, the lower stratosphere is already in a very weakened state.  Research from Simon Lee states that the Arctic High regime (-AO / -NAO) is 7 times more likely to occur when the lower stratosphere is in a weakened state, and the SSW will only reinforce the weakness.  Thinking we may see something like a heavy blocking period here in early to mid-Jan, then a bit of a relax period at some point, followed by another heavy blocking period.  We should see an improving Pacific pattern mid-Jan and after, though suspect it will be variable.  Good luck to all

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I know that Webber has been preaching this for a while, but I’m really not upset with the Pacific. Heck, I’m fine if we keep it as it is the entire year! I took a look back at some of our classic CAD/Miller B storms, and put them into a composite. Those years were Dec 208, Feb 2004, Jan 2002, Jan 1988, Dec 1971, Feb 1969, many of which produced a foot in Charlotte. Definitely some minor adjustments I would like to see, like more of a 50/50 low, but still, relatively close to the current look!

 

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One thing is for sure.. it doesn't look like we will be without a lot of systems with the hyper active Pacific. Someone is going to flood soon

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Have been noticing the Euro forecast is ever so slightly trying to pull this MJO into phase 1 over the last 5 or so days.Even better look if that happened so things still on schedule.

Carry on.

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2 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

GFS has an event for the mountains around 276 this go around but I will eat my hat if a storm goes from Charleston to Lumberton to Albemarle with that setup. 

Would be more snow than what the model is showing with that setup probably....

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2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Hmmm.. Just one run but this system will be close to a heavy snow for the mountains and foothills 

sn10_acc.us_ma (12).png

Think this might be our "pattern" (winter game) changer coming through?

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52 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Weeklies trend loop...7-day avg for Jan 14-21...last 6 model runs including today's

MQRh1HN.gif

Nice trend . Do you think we maybe can watch something during that timeframe or later into Jan?

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49 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Weeklies trend loop...7-day avg for Jan 14-21...last 6 model runs including today's

MQRh1HN.gif

Well now. That's absurdly superb as shown. I would probably have a tough time drawing it up any better. Ridging over the pole, aluetian low, +pna over the west,  lower heights off the east coast. Deep eastern trough with a baffin bay true block. That would do quite nicely. Hope it shows up.  

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It is looking more and more likely that we are heading towards an interesting start to 2021. Nothing for the Southeast is ever a guarantee and even in the best patterns we could end up in disappointment, but the long range set up is one of the best I’ve ever seen.

As Grit and other have mentioned, the west based –NAO is fairly important for us and it seems as if it could be here to stay. The new EPS weeklies have it staying to some degree through early February. It could take some time for arctic air to funnel its way southward in accordance with our block too (probably mid-January if it does). 

We have been incredibly fixated on mess in the Pacific, which should slowly improve over the next two weeks. It seems like the Pacific jet extension is retracting going into week 2 of Jan which could lead finally lend us to some ridging on the west coast. But the jet does not disappear (but rather slightly pulls back), so I would not expect a sustained –EPO… a manageable pacific with a more neutral/slight negative look to it works too. As hinted on the GEFS and Euro Ens, the large scale pattern begins to retrograde once ridging takes over the pole. This moves the EPO domain west (helping us move more toward a more neutral EPO look) and shifts ridging in Asia which helps stop the Pac Jet influence. As CustomWX mentioned though, we do not need this necessarily to get some good opportunities.

By day 8-15 on the Euro Ens, the PV shifted west in the Bering Sea, allowing the incoming pieces of energy to rotate farther west as well which helps pump heights in western Canada in conjugation with the west based –NAO. 

Lastly, it looks like we finally have some general agreement with the starto warming event as well into the first two weeks of Jan (Euro is still quickest with the reverse). However, do not expect immediate changes with this, as it is common for the synoptic effects to materialize a few weeks after the event.

Things looking up from here and I have hope! 

Happy New Years Everybody! 

 

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Brad Panavich isn't sold yet-

 Blocking is great but it does t always bring cold, some time it’s a ridge. A pattern to watch for sure but it’s a 50/50 kinda of thing of where the trough and ridge set up. 

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