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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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17 hours ago, Avdave said:

Indeed, we are heading up this weekend and into early next week to NW NC

West Jefferson is starting to get a good number of trees changing already (Poplar, Birch, Elm).  Maples are just starting to get a little color and oaks are still green.  Same for the parkway between Boone and West Jefferson.  East slope into Wilkes county where I am is still pretty much green.

We should be in business starting this weekend.  I plan to go up on the 24th and stay through the 30th.  That should be peak time for my location.

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2 hours ago, mwp1023 said:

West Jefferson is starting to get a good number of trees changing already (Poplar, Birch, Elm).  Maples are just starting to get a little color and oaks are still green.  Same for the parkway between Boone and West Jefferson.  East slope into Wilkes county where I am is still pretty much green.

We should be in business starting this weekend.  I plan to go up on the 24th and stay through the 30th.  That should be peak time for my location.

Thank you for the live update. We will probably be a little to early but hopefully early next week they will get cranking.   Def will be in the boone-WJ stretch.

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11 hours ago, jburns said:

We have a La Niña which tends to give us a warmer and drier winter than normal. :thumbsdown:

We've scored some pretty good storms during a la nina   ;)  Last year was classified as a nina and we were wetter than usual and had no real heat. No, we didn't cash in(although some did much better than others), but it was hands down the best year for opportunities we've had in quite sometime. 

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yeah we will probably squeeze out one minor event like the last two years if we are lucky.

Are you sure you're not related to @WidreMann? :P  You've said this every year for at least the past decade regardless. This is the south. We take our chances and hope for the best and don't expect endless opportunities (although it would be nice). What we do get, is a shot or 3 at something frozen to play in. This isn't the NE or even the MA and sharing the channeling by your inner Eeyore from Sept to March, every single year for a decade, becomes really annoying.  :rolleyes:  

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2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

We've scored some pretty good storms during a la nina   ;)  Last year was classified as a nina and we were wetter than usual and had no real heat. No, we didn't cash in(although some did much better than others), but it was hands down the best year for opportunities we've had in quite sometime. 

Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day 

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I was reading that the La Nina may be moderated because of a weak polar vortex that may allow colder air to slip south.  This was noted as an influence last season.  Living in the midlands of SC you always assume the worst but it sounds like we will get a few storms to at least follow along with.  That all I can hope for down here so I might as well enjoy it.  Otherwise, why the hell would you be on this forum?  So enhance the level of disappointment in your life?  Expect the worst, hope for the best and enjoy the show.

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I know no one wants to hear this but this is a pretty substantial extended dry streak we’re in. I know some areas got a ton of rain last week but it all feel in a few hours. Outside of that, and for areas that missed the heaviest of that, it’s been exceptionally dry going back to the second half of September. Looking at models, many areas may not see appreciable rain going into the end of the month. I think we’ve had 4 days total with measurable rain going back almost 4 weeks, albeit 2 of those were significant amounts. The lack of consistency of rain has been noticeable. At my farm in Franklin county, all ponds are several feet down as of this morning 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day 

Which was still better than the torch of the past few years. We live in the south, outside of the mountains, and nobody should ever be expecting to play in a winter wonderland, let alone to play for most of the season. I've had 9" of snow overnight that was gone by 10am the next day. It's the south. Enjoy it while it lasts. 

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I'll take my chances.  Last year we had average winter temps.  It felt like winter in NC.  We never got a good +PNA so no real cold air shots to sustain a good snowfall opportunity.  In his part of the country we need an extreme combination to occur.  The static-ness of last year did not afford that really.   We might see one or two of those occur in a La Nina

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