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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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 Great news for warmth lovers (I'm not one of them but I'm just glad summer is over): this is about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the US overall (though not specifically the SE) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar): these show +4 to+7 for most of the active SE US members and the EPS has done well recently:

 These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept!

Aside: At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a several degree cold bias there over the last month! That implies it would be close to the normal for Sep 1-15 there:

 

785254562_ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015(1).png.acf2fc6b6df66dc8168aac3c506a4114.png

 

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11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Great news for warmth lovers (I'm not one of them but I'm just glad summer is over): this is about as warm as it has ever been on record for the eastern 3/4 of the US overall (though not specifically the SE) in the first half of October on the EPS (CMC and GEFS similar): these show +4 to+7 for most of the active SE US members and the EPS has done well recently:

 These temps would be normal for the first half of Sept!

Aside: At NYC, this implies a first half of Oct that is 10+ warmer than normal when taking into account a several degree cold bias there over the last month! That implies it would be close to the normal for Sep 1-15 there:

 

785254562_ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015(1).png.acf2fc6b6df66dc8168aac3c506a4114.png

 

Isn't there a correlation between a warn October and a cold winter? Seems like you mentioned some supporting data years ago...... or maybe I read it somewhere. I am getting old you know.

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11 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Isn't there a correlation between a warn October and a cold winter? Seems like you mentioned some supporting data years ago...... or maybe I read it somewhere. I am getting old you know.

 I vaguely recall something similar about a specific set of analogs that i once analyzed (perhaps ENSO related)...maybe weak El Nino? But anyway based on current knowledge, I see no reason to expect a cold winter based strictly on this October being warm (assuming it ends up that way). I just looked and see no reverse correlation. Any correlation appears to be rather small and may be a small positive one, if anything.

 Moreover, based on it being La Nina, there still being near record warm anomalies in the W Pac/MC (which is generally a warm indicator in winter because it tends to favor the warmer MJO phases like has been the case overall for 10+ years), with there having been a gradual longterm trend of warmer winters due to GW, and with the Euro/CFS/Maxar favoring warmth, I see no reason to go for a cold winter at this time. My wild guess right now is to go NN to slightly AN for Dec and then AN for Jan and Feb. But even then, I'm very much still looking forward to my favorite season because climo tells me that it will still be at least 15-20 cooler than what we're now having along with much lower dewpoints. That can never be a bad thing as I don't get hung up on where we are vs normals as much as I used to. I just want to be able to go outside to enjoy refreshing air on a alot of days. Also, keep in mind the lack of skill in longterm /seasonal forecasting. And even in a "warm" winter, there will almost always be a few cold snaps. So, big swings/variety is typical of most winters unlike monotonous summers.

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Today's 15 day EPS 2M temp anomaly map (see below) is even warmer than the one I posted above with anomalies of +5 to +8 for most of the active SE members! This takes us through early 10/18. With progs like this and if no cooldown shows up within a few days, we would then start to look at a decent shot at a top 3 warm October in some areas of the SE:

Warmest Octobers on record (hopefully I didn't miss any when I looked at the list):

1. RDU:

69.3 1919

68.1 1941 

67.4 2007

65.8 2019

 

2. ATL:

70.8 1919

69.8 1984

69.6 2016

69.4 1941

 

3. Nashville, TN:

68.2 1919

67.9 1947

67.8 1941

67.7 2016

 

 169561173_ecmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015(2).png.bbf18751909e27867a3ecd474d2cd5bc.png

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Nothing much in the long term to indicate our first frost in the SE before at least third week of October.  However, in a shocking development, the west is progged to be much below normal over the next two weeks.  Maybe this signals a reversal in winter fortunes this year.  Last year I remember taking some cold rides in October and November.  

 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

 

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1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Nothing much in the long term to indicate our first frost in the SE before at least third week of October.  However, in a shocking development, the west is progged to be much below normal over the next two weeks.  Maybe this signals a reversal in winter fortunes this year.  Last year I remember taking some cold rides in October and November.  

 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

 

I checked with last years temps and us in the southeast didn't get our first frost until early Dec. Inland from us got it in mid Nov.

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16 hours ago, yotaman said:

I checked with last years temps and us in the southeast didn't get our first frost until early Dec. Inland from us got it in mid Nov.

Not certain if you meant the entire Southeast, but the Triad had a frost on November 3. Additionally, it got down to 30 degrees on November 19.

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2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Not certain if you meant the entire Southeast, but the Triad had a frost on November 3. Additionally, it got down to 30 degrees on November 19.

I meant east of highway 17. Inland from there yes yall got much colder than us.

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-PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948.

The Winter composite is Global warming skew... this is 8plus years and 8minus years. Warm in the mid-latitudes~ This agrees with trend of this last few years. Slight chance for a -NAO this Winter, but when it happens it may be accompanied by a stronger +EPO/-PNA

2e.png

2d.png

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1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

-PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948.

The Winter composite is Global warming skew... this is 8plus years and 8minus years. Warm in the mid-latitudes~ This agrees with trend of this last few years. Slight chance for a -NAO this Winter, but when it happens it may be accompanied by a stronger +EPO/-PNA

2e.png

2d.png

I'll take my chances this winter  :D  

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The medium range model consensus has clearly trended cooler since the Friday morning runs for later this month for the E US. They have the upper trough at that time further west into the E US vs having been mainly offshore in older runs. That has continued through the 18Z GFS/GEFS today.

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