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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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If this thing shows promise by Tuesday or Wednesday, we really need to be selective in who starts the thread.  

Not one second before Wednesday IMO, with the caveat that it’s been there for at least 4 consecutive runs even then lol.


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24 minutes ago, btownheel said:


Not one second before Wednesday IMO, with the caveat that it’s been there for at least 4 consecutive runs even then lol.


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Doubt we’ll even have anything worthy of starting a thread by the end of the weekend. I like everything about that GFS run other than the fact it’s nearly a week out....

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Surprised no one has said this but if u go back to the 18z gfs on February 12th, it has shown Snow for the 27th almost every single run. Some big hits... but IF this storm comes to pass,  the GFS definitely sniffed it out a long ways out from Hour 342 to Hour 174 now.

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4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Surprised no one has said this but if u go back to the 18z gfs on February 12th, it has shown Snow for the 27th almost every single run. Some big hits... but IF this storm comes to pass,  the GFS definitely sniffed it out a long ways out from Hour 342 to Hour 174 now.

Don’t say that. Shhhh “” On Feb 26, 2004 a record 11.6 inches of snow was recorded in Charlotte. This was also the third largest one-day total on record. The storm total at the CharlotteAirport was 13.2 inches, the third biggest storm in city history.“”

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It’s going to take a serious push of cold air for it to be anything less than a 36 degree snowfall and wet grass. Temps are near 70 or higher forum wide mid week.

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3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Huh?

 

87AD7E02-5AD7-45CB-BEEC-670B6F9F8309.jpeg

I stand corrected, not 70, but still close to 60 multiple days. Sun angle, ground temps, no cold air. 0/3. 

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1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

I stand corrected, not 70, but still close to 60 multiple days. Sun angle, ground temps, no cold air. 0/3. 

3 warm days in a row aren't going to overwhelmingly warm the ground but so much especially with the cold ground right now and the temps during next week at night still in the 30s

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The 00z GFS looks to be holding holding serve for next Friday’s system.  Warmer and a tad dryer, but it’s still there and this far out we can’t quibble about little details.  The signal is there and that’s what counts.

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00z Euro still has the storm but it goes from looking great to meh, probably because the High is in the Great Lakes area andmore CAD-y than the GFS, which has the High still over the Midwest during the height of the storm. 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

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I just wish we could get a stronger H pressure to the north so there would be no doubt about the cold air.  This has been the problem all season.  :snowman:

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Maybe Mother Nature will have mercy on us and repeat 04 to hold everyone off for another 16 years before it happens again. 
 
360-EAC3-A-DE75-4-D39-B73-A-F2-E89-EE30764.jpg&key=917df8b1929bd7871a21365c3d25b20a92039e440f119a136d17e6a404a7b926

How does that map happen? Did the Charlotte corridor just catch a stalled band? I was a sophomore at UNC at the time and remember that storm well but had no idea it dropped up to 20 inches 50 or less miles from me.


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22 minutes ago, btownheel said:


How does that map happen? Did the Charlotte corridor just catch a stalled band? I was a sophomore at UNC at the time and remember that storm well but had no idea it dropped up to 20 inches 50 or less miles from me.


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If I remember correctly, it was an upper level low and the deform band dumped snow in one spot. 

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3 minutes ago, rduwx said:

If I remember correctly, it was an upper level low and the deform band dumped snow in one spot. 

Yes, like Feb 14 the main storm put down 8-10” then the next day that band dumped the rest. I was 12yrs old in Concord still to this day biggest storm of my life. Then Feb 14 I had 11” in Rowan county 

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1 hour ago, GunBlade said:

Maybe Mother Nature will have mercy on us and repeat 04 to hold everyone off for another 16 years before it happens again. 
 

360-EAC3-A-DE75-4-D39-B73-A-F2-E89-EE307

That’s my storm. I posted a few pictures yesterday. My house is right under the 20.

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Serious question, if you had 3 options 
A) one 24-30” Storm with temps in teens and blowing snow but afterwards had a 3-5 yr SN Drought

B..) One 10-15” Storm and then a 2/3 yr drought 

c) Consistently 4/5 3-5” events per year but never more than 8” for a decade. 

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