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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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18Z GFS similar to 12Z but a tad bit slower with the progression of the shortwave as it interacts with the northern energy. Also a few degrees colder at the surface for the Piedmont, but obviously still too warm for most. It is unfortunate this seems like a daytime event too

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18z GFSV16 continues to advertise snow event for mountains and foothills on Monday. Still tons of uncertainty with the system. The EPS doesn’t agree with the 12z euro op run. Definitely a legitimate threat. 

9DF029BE-8E79-4F1A-BA97-980D2E2B07D1.jpeg

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The 00Z Euro shows something I have never seen here and more like the plains- It has Asheville getting down to 10 degrees or colder on Sunday night then rain/mix less than 8 hours later. 

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Still not convinced Monday/Tuesday event moves through the Tenn. valley.  It certainly could, we'll see.  Regardless, there will be other opportunities ahead.  Only wished we had more cold on our side of the hemisphere.

GSP AFD:  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

GFS 06: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

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2 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Still not convinced Monday/Tuesday event moves through the Tenn. valley.  It certainly could, we'll see.  Regardless, there will be other opportunities ahead.  Only wished we had more cold on our side of the hemisphere.

GSP AFD:  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

GFS 06: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

I agree with you and the 12z GFS just essentially lost the system at the surface. The combination of just too many pieces of energy flying around and the northern stream confluence is causing these models to struggle immensely. 

But the cold just is not there for us to tap into

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240hr depiction on today's GFS run is a thing of beauty.  Ridging out west, west-based greenland block.. stationary arctic blocking... Second half of January looks good.

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

240hr depiction on today's GFS run is a thing of beauty.  Ridging out west, west-based greenland block.. stationary arctic blocking... Second half of January looks good.

It has some bone chilling runs lately. 

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

240hr depiction on today's GFS run is a thing of beauty.  Ridging out west, west-based greenland block.. stationary arctic blocking... Second half of January looks good.

I appreciate your optimism burrel! I have become to cynical I guess.

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1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I appreciate your optimism burrel! I have become to cynical I guess.

No reason to be down! We're gonna see flakes flying tomorrow; that's a win.  Especially considering we're only a week in to January.  

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Euro isn't an app runner this run. It's more of a weak system with some light snow in the mtns and light rain elsewhere 

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NAM finally in range for Monday's system (take with a grain of salt because it is the long range NAM). GFS is still much flatter with the h5 vort with little northern stream interaction. 

LA/TN/MS/AL could score in the morning hours (if the NAM is correct) but that warm air advection ahead of the surface low + daytime heating is going to be a killer combo for the piedmont with no good source of cold air.

Still time with this one though 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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1 hour ago, Alfoman said:

NAM finally in range for Monday's system (take with a grain of salt because it is the long range NAM). GFS is still much flatter with the h5 vort with little northern stream interaction. 

LA/TN/MS/AL could score in the morning hours (if the NAM is correct) but that warm air advection ahead of the surface low + daytime heating is going to be a killer combo for the piedmont with no good source of cold air.

Still time with this one though 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff.

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5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff.

If that high stays to our north and doesn’t slide to leave a weakness, that low pressure will not plow into it. I haven’t had any time to take a close look at it to see what’s going on, so if anyone else has a chance I’d love to hear the rundown B)

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6 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff.

That does look awfully  good for my backyard.  Too bad it’ll change by tonight!!

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2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Nam is bullish on the next storm!

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

I like where the Low pressure is centered.  The 1028 high, not so much..

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Gfs actually phases this upcoming storm but surface reflection looks weak. Definitely something that can beef up as we get closer.

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3 hours ago, franklin NCwx said:

Nam is bullish on the next storm!

ref1km_ptype.conus.png

I'm gun shy after this 4-8 turned in to 1/2 inch

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2 hours ago, Tacoma said:

I'm gun shy after this 4-8 turned in to 1/2 inch

Man it's really too bad that 1028 got pushed out. Pretty sure that was the 1030 in PA. I haven't looked but I am guessing there was no 50/50 low to help anchor it in place. If that high would just hold on in PA this could have been beautiful.

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4 hours ago, ILMRoss said:

Keep a lazy eye on next weekend. Euro was close to something. 

I surely hope so after this bust.  

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