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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

The border of the purple and blue. Real estate is all about location B)

accum.19870123 (1).gif

87/88 is why I do this. Those season were awesome and I chase for that every year. 

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21 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro has a Jan ‘87 look to it 

You know, honestly, January 87 might not be an awful analog if it wasnt a nino. 

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2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

87/88 is why I do this. Those season were awesome and I chase for that every year. 

I can remember as a young pup that 87 snow. Of course, who doesnt remember 88. 

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Euro with a bit of a monkey's paw run - oh, i hear you don't want suppression, how about this! Shout out to the folks that really get it good on that run but let's hope future runs settle down; a big sharp trough like that is begging to see a NW trend. 

keep the euro ens images coming if you got em, should be a pretty enlightening run.

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7 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Euro with a bit of a monkey's paw run - oh, i hear you don't want suppression, how about this! Shout out to the folks that really get it good on that run but let's hope future runs settle down; a big sharp trough like that is begging to see a NW trend. 

keep the euro ens images coming if you got em, should be a pretty enlightening run.

Not as excited as we are. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0452800.png

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From 12z Models for Mon-Tue:

GFS Para/CMC/UKMet: drop northern stream wave on top of, or in front of, southern stream wave...storm is weaker/more suppressed

GFS/Euro: drop northern stream wave into the backside of the southern wave...storm goes boom (GFS is a little later)

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Seems like the op is an outlier and suppression is the name of the game 

Euro Ens Mean looks about perfect to me for western areas for a week away...solid looking storm that is tracking south of you (likely to adjust north)...32 deg line on the mean thru CLT....of course, this is one model

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Just now, griteater said:

Euro Ens Mean looks about perfect to me for western areas for a week away...solid looking storm that is tracking south of you...32 deg line on the mean thru CLT....of course, this is one model

Thanks for the images yall, and completely agreed; for a week out it's a pretty lovely signal. I've been around long enough to bake a NW trend into any long range projection, so I like where we are sitting at now. 

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One thing I'll watch for, in model runs and on-the-ground, is the "Dallas rule". Growing up in NC, Raleigh mets used to say if it was snowing in Dallas (as a result of a Miller A), buckle up.

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Afternoon disco from GSP:

Quote
The next possible winter storm is on the horizon for early next
week. Still a ton of uncertainty with this yet to be formed system.
Most guidance shows a developing low pressure system somewhere near
the coast with ample cold air to work with across the region. The
big question mark should this low develop is how much if any
moisture and associated precipitation is thrown back into the colder
air. Right now the forecast features diurnally driven rain/snow
chances across the region Monday into Monday night.

 

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

Euro Ens Mean looks about perfect to me for western areas for a week away...solid looking storm that is tracking south of you (likely to adjust north)...32 deg line on the mean thru CLT....of course, this is one model

Does that mean grit you don't think it's likely that the northern energy kills the wave, based on the ensembles? That seems to be what's suppressing everything. Hard to fathom we'd lose any storm by suppression. 

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1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Does that mean grit you don't think it's likely that the northern energy kills the wave, based on the ensembles? That seems to be what's suppressing everything. Hard to fathom we'd lose any storm by suppression. 

On phased storms its always paramount that the ns comes in behind the ss for the phase to go boom. Want work the other way around. You always want the ns to drop right in ss hip pocket as it comes down. If its even a hair in front, its a wash,weak sauce strung out nada.

Ukmet use to be the king at sniffing out phasers.

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2 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

One thing I'll watch for, in model runs and on-the-ground, is the "Dallas rule". Growing up in NC, Raleigh mets used to say if it was snowing in Dallas (as a result of a Miller A), buckle up.

Atlanta was our benchmark in Charlotte.

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4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Atlanta was our benchmark in Charlotte.

Huntsville is usually good juju for the foothills 

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4 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Does that mean grit you don't think it's likely that the northern energy kills the wave, based on the ensembles? That seems to be what's suppressing everything. Hard to fathom we'd lose any storm by suppression. 

Don't think we can say either way about the phasing, other than just guessing at this stage, but the EPS has a good look right now.  GEFS and GEPS look decent, but not quite as good

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10 minutes ago, griteater said:

18z Euro Ens Mean at the end of its run at hr144...another threatening run

Zrt5qNn.png

Am I reading that right though, the surface freezing line is in New York?

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9 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Am I reading that right though, the surface freezing line is in New York?

You have to ignore that lol

It's a function of it being 1pm and it's averaging out all members.  Yeah, ideally, the 32 line is in Jacksonville and everything else is the same lol, but not going to be that way.  850 zero is Fayetteville to Montgomery

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12 minutes ago, griteater said:

You have to ignore that lol

It's a function of it being 1pm and it's averaging out all members.  Yeah, ideally, the 32 line is in Jacksonville and everything else is the same lol, but not going to be that way.  850 zero is Fayetteville to Montgomery

Lol, I was looking real hard for it and I couldn't find it...until I looked near Canada! 

Yeah that's not ideal, it's one of my ticks. I'm not a rates will overcome kind of guy. But it's likely similar if not better than what were dealing with this week. Let's get a storm to pop and we'll see what happens. 

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