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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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21 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It could end up like that, but I'm leaning towards something similar to last year with nina to neutral as we head into spring. Also, there is no drought here  :D  

20211019_southeast_text.jpg 

If my mind serves me correctly, last year was a disaster of a winter minus the mountains. I think I had .6" of snow here all winter lol.  WOOHOO :P    Not much rain in the next week or so that D0 will be movine westward into more of the triangle.  Usually we would be counting on a tropical system  but that doesnt look to be happening anytime soon

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12 minutes ago, Avdave said:

If my mind serves me correctly, last year was a disaster of a winter minus the mountains. I think I had .6" of snow here all winter lol.  WOOHOO :P    Not much rain in the next week or so that D0 will be movine westward into more of the triangle.  Usually we would be counting on a tropical system  but that doesnt look to be happening anytime soon

You don't live up north now, most of our winters are a disaster so get used to it  :P  You got more snow than I did so shush it mister :lol: 

Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Raleigh
Inches Date Centi­metres
2.5 February 20, 2020   6.4
trace November 12, 2019 + trace
7.0 December 09, 2018 17.8
0.5 January 07, 2017 1.3
1.2 January 22, 2016 3.0
3.2 February 26, 2015 8.1
3.3 February 12, 2014 8.4
0.7 February 16, 2013 + 1.8
0.9 February 19, 2012 2.3
0.4 February 10, 2011 1.0
6.7 December 26, 2010 17.0
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58 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

You don't live up north now, most of our winters are a disaster so get used to it  :P  You got more snow than I did so shush it mister :lol: 

Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Raleigh
Inches Date Centi­metres
2.5 February 20, 2020   6.4
trace November 12, 2019 + trace
7.0 December 09, 2018 17.8
0.5 January 07, 2017 1.3
1.2 January 22, 2016 3.0
3.2 February 26, 2015 8.1
3.3 February 12, 2014 8.4
0.7 February 16, 2013 + 1.8
0.9 February 19, 2012 2.3
0.4 February 10, 2011 1.0
6.7 December 26, 2010 17.0

Oh hell, Ive been here 5 years now, I know it really doesnt snow here most of the time lol. Its fun to track and watch it disappear. Its why I dont get upset if it doesnt pan out here. I know the expectations :)

 

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5 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Oh hell, Ive been here 5 years now, I know it really doesnt snow here most of the time lol. Its fun to track and watch it disappear. Its why I dont get upset if it doesnt pan out here. I know the expectations :)

 

I hope this winter is a 2010-11 repeat and we all get sick of shoveling snow  :wub:  

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Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs

https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw

Cold South America coast pressure/wind(now)

https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK
 

I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and Neutral analogs

https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d

^That's for the Winter. It's still -PNA, alot

Through next July 

https://ibb.co/qChknGG

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The reality is, if formidable hlb isn't pre$ent this Winter it's basically set in stone Mild.

    The 1960's featured a similar Pac setup several times that Decade and the Winters were cold/snowy in much of the Nation. The key; High latitude blocking. I know many will argue that was a different climate era as why. I agree the same pattern yielded today would be warmer than then but, still blocking was reason for a cold nation as a whole and not just the West, as a -PDO/La nina Pattern would dictate without it.

    So, there's still some hope.

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8 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Looks like mountain peeps get some November accumulating snow Wednesday night and Thursday.  :D

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

Let's go!!!

 

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
450 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of western North
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Accumulating snow is possible at elevations above 3500 feet in the
North Carolina mountains, and throughout the northern mountains, from
late Wednesday night through Friday morning. The heaviest
accumulations would affect ridgetop locations. Any accumulations
could make for slippery road conditions on Friday morning with
temperatures expected to be at or below the freezing mark in many
high elevation spots.
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Let's go!!!
 
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-450 AM EDT Mon Nov 1 2021This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of western NorthCarolina..DAY ONE...Today and tonight.Hazardous weather is not expected at this time..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.Accumulating snow is possible at elevations above 3500 feet in theNorth Carolina mountains, and throughout the northern mountains, fromlate Wednesday night through Friday morning. The heaviestaccumulations would affect ridgetop locations. Any accumulationscould make for slippery road conditions on Friday morning withtemperatures expected to be at or below the freezing mark in manyhigh elevation spots.


I'll be heading to the top of Big Bald Thursday. Feel like joining me?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk


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Tim Buckley

 

 

@TimBuckleyWX

 

·

33m

Wouldn't shock me a bit if we see some sleet pellets or even a few wet snowflakes in parts of the Piedmont early Thursday morning. We'll be cold and dry, and sometimes that gets some sleet going at the beginning. Seeing it in Alabama and Tennessee today 

 

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11 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

First decent fantasy storm of the year

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_62.png

Yeah, I watched some guy on YouTube talk about a 50/50 chance of a decent snowstorm in the South. I started laughing. Outside of of our NC mountains, snow and storm do not get together in November here..lol 

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