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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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40 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Can you provide some guidance on how you read that sounding and how you know it is sleet?  The warm nose looks awfully warm and thick.

 

Thanks in advance.

TW

900-925mb area is below freezing with all three indicators.  That's the sleet zone. 

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6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

900-925mb area is below freezing with all three indicators.  That's the sleet zone. 

900-925mb area is definitely colder than the last event further into SW va and W N.C. Not only for sleet, but this region is important for freezing rain and getting the “super cooled” droplets there produce less runoff and more ice accrual. I would say the favored CAD regions may actually be in line for a deeper wedge this go round. That’s also reflected in the sub freezing surface air bleeding much further south into the upstate. This past storm was a marginal setup that was able to produce damaging ice totals through duration and light precip 

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5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I don't know that I've ever seen this much overcast at one time over the continental US

 

20210461741_GOES16-ABI-CONUS-GEOCOLOR-25

Atmospheric terrorism.  Gotta be the Russians.  Notice how the cloud coverage stops in Central America?  Dead give away. We protest.

This would be an awesome animation to see for this week.

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Whoever's on the southern extent of the wedge (Right now looks like northern NC/Southern VA), most likely will get a crippling icestorm (.75+ ZR accrual). I would need to pull the bufkit soundings, but that same area from Roxboro to MTV to GSO looks bad. I'd be buying batteries/etc right now if I were you.

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

One reason this Euro run is better is it keeps the low track further south 

Looks like it wants to track the low right around the bottom of the wedge, if that's the case I have a very hard time buying the wedge lifting out as quickly as depicted. 

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When you have the globals onboard this far out and mostly aligning with your mesoscale modeling, you need to start getting prepared in the CAD areas. Classic setup and honestly not that difficult to forecast. It’s the areas outside the most prone CAD regions that are in question as to how far the freezing line will establish itself but if you had bad ice from the last storm I’d take pause with what looks like models are converging on 72 hours our...

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11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

When you have the globals onboard this far out and mostly aligning with your mesoscale modeling, you need to start getting prepared in the CAD areas. Classic setup and honestly not that difficult to forecast. It’s the areas outside the most prone CAD regions that are in question as to how far the freezing line will establish itself but if you had bad ice from the last storm I’d take pause with what looks like models are converging on 72 hours our...

Yea if you just look at the overall pattern at 48 - 72 hours on the euro (500mb/SLP), it's pretty classic looking. From an IMBY perspective, I'm not sure how RDU will fair at this point. We would need the cooler trends to continue to get anything more than advisory criteria ice. That said, the more classic CAD areas look good for WSW and Icestorm Warning criteria ice. Ground zero looks like MTV/DAN area.

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Just now, HKY_WX said:

Yea if you just look at the overall pattern at 48 - 72 hours on the euro (500mb/SLP), it's pretty classic looking. From a IMBY perspective, I'm not sure how RDU will fair at this point. We would need the cooler trends to continue to get anything more than advisory criteria ice. That said, the more classic CAD areas look good for WSW and Icestorm Warning criteria ice.

We don't really have a lot of time for much more trending really do we?

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