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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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From RAH discussion this morning.  LOL

The great Appalachian chain has not moved that I have noticed (even
with the Sparta earthquakes and tremors this year)
. So, unless the
high becomes centered to our NNE (arctic air air will not roll down
the eastern seaboard into the Carolina`s). It will stay west of the
Appalachians.
 

 

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9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Honestly this should be getting more attention. Definitely could be flooding issues with this amount of rain 

qpf_acc.us_ma (30).png

I’ve been thinking the same thing.  Going to be a hard pill to swallow if we day after day of rain and artic air lurking just to our west...

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What happened with this weekend's system is notable, in that it did make significant steps colder. Keep in mind the significant shifts that have taken place within 3 days. Doesn't mean this one will turn out moving towards wintry, but an apps runner isn't set in stone, and even if it is impacts before flipping to rain could be significant. I've experienced all frozen storms with a low tracking to my west before (this was in virginia, so a little easier, but still...)

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

What happened with this weekend's system is notable, in that it did make significant steps colder. Keep in mind the significant shifts that have taken place within 3 days. Doesn't mean this one will turn out moving towards wintry, but an apps runner isn't set in stone, and even if it is impacts before flipping to rain could be significant. I've experienced all frozen storms with a low tracking to my west before (this was in virginia, so a little easier, but still...)

In the old days, the wright weather days, you would've been banned for behaving like several people have behaved. We are, at a minimum, five days out. For anyone to believe we've reached our final destination with regards to this event is just silly. 

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In the old days, the wright weather days, you would've been banned for behaving like several people have behaved. We are, at a minimum, five days out. For anyone to believe we've reached our final destination with regards to this event is just silly. 
No doubt about that, you see the 6z right? It brings ZR back into SC, which wasn't seen since 12z Monday. I am not buying that apps rubber because of how dense that arctic air is, but the more amped the low is the more likely it will cut, however a 995ish off the SC coast (if it went that route) would cause one hell of a headache

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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6z icon would have been a major hit. At this point what’s most critical is the remnants of the Canadian vortex ejecting East Quickly for optimal high pressure placement. We can score a major winter storm even if the surface lows runs west of the apps in that scenario, with the classic high placement you’ll still have a locked in wedge and lower pressures along the Atlantic coast 

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Just now, burrel2 said:

6z icon would have been a major hit. At this point what’s most critical is the remnants of the Canadian vortex ejecting East Quickly for optimal high pressure placement. We can score a major winter storm even if the surface lows runs west of the apps in that scenario, with the classic high placement you’ll still have a locked in wedge and lower pressures along the Atlantic coast 

Yep. 0z UKMET actually had something too. 

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6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Yep. 0z UKMET actually had something too. 

@BullCityWx I agree with you brother. Anyone writing this off at this juncture is pure lunacy. The way the models have performed past 72-96 hours and beyond this year would leave any reasonable prudent person to realize giving definitives is a no go right now. 

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2 hours ago, SUNYGRAD said:

From RAH discussion this morning.  LOL

The great Appalachian chain has not moved that I have noticed (even
with the Sparta earthquakes and tremors this year)
. So, unless the
high becomes centered to our NNE (arctic air air will not roll down
the eastern seaboard into the Carolina`s). It will stay west of the
Appalachians.
 

 

Tell em the EURO Suite says Hello

Screenshot_20210210-092210_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

In the old days, the wright weather days, you would've been banned for behaving like several people have behaved. We are, at a minimum, five days out. For anyone to believe we've reached our final destination with regards to this event is just silly. 

I miss those days :(   Anywho.....I see the icy solution is still on the table as we get closer :yikes:

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Whoa guys,  My comment on the NWS comment should have been followed with some silly icon probably.  It was a bit more tongue-in-cheek than how it was likely interpreted.  I highly respect the folks over there and to a great extent they have a thankless job.  Also understaffed from what I'm reading.

That said their stoic drollness in the forecast discussion needs a little spice once in awhile and sometimes they place a nice zinger in there to wake you up.  Props to that. 

This one however lacked the clever wit they usually produce from time to time.  If you are going to drop one in there make it funny.

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3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Now that I’ve had to delete the last page of crap, keep the discussion on topic and the whining, complaining and unrelated opinions in the designated threads. 
 

Now back to your regular scheduled program 

Yep.  Sorry to take us off point buckeye.

Meanwhile back at the weather...

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Yeah that would be crippling. 

The southern fringes of the wedge warmed up some from 00z but in the heart of the CAD region temps stayed pretty close to 00z. Low did track toward the APPs this run and Miller-B around the southern edge of the wedge to the coast. 

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