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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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4 minutes ago, ObiWanKarlNobi said:

Longtime lurker here.  I just registered an account so I could ask a question.  You guys seem to be taking this storm way more seriously then anything else this winter.  Am I correct in thinking that there is higher confidence than usual that this will pan out?  Should I start preparing for an ice storm and a multi-day power outage?

It has the highest potential to be a significant winter storm given the pattern and cold available of anything this season. Also, CAD events are more prevalent here and usually our “specialty.” Potential doesn’t verify to winter storms all the time. I’d probably wait a couple days to prepare as we’re still in the infancy of the cad solution but I’d definitely keep it on your radar 

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45 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

If this comes to pass, I look forward to watching the northern transplants in Raleigh attempt to drive to work  on ZR at 20 degrees... "'Cause they are used to that up north...."

 

No offense to northern transplants in Raleigh who view this board (you're obviously excluded) ;)

Aint that the truth.

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It has the highest potential to be a significant winter storm given the pattern and cold available of anything this season. Also, CAD events are more prevalent here and usually our “specialty.” Potential doesn’t verify to winter storms all the time. I’d probably wait a couple days to prepare as we’re still in the infancy of the cad solution but I’d definitely keep it on your radar 

Obiwan, 

To add to NorthHills comments...

The major models are now showing a decent influx of low level cold air into the triangle for next Mon-Weds with precip in the picture.  Lots of flux here with each iteration and interval of model output but there seems to be more of a narrowing on this timeframe for something (sleet/ice) significant to occur early next week.  As for the upcoming weekend (right now) that system will likely be more of a hinderance north and west of Cary.  Just my 2 cents

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6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I wouldn't go to no extremes just yet... just keep checking back and hopefully their will be some consensus soon

I've been on the fence about a generator for quite some time now - today's the day. BTW - I mostly avoid Harbor Freight - but I was told their return policy is as easy as it gets - buy the extended warranty: best case keep it in the box unless needed (no warranty needed), worst case if it ever fails- drain fuel/oil - exchange at store no questions, and buy the extended warranty on that one. I will say - their Predator line unbeknownst to me are powered by Briggs&Stratton produced engines. I'd rather have peace of mind than an empty shelf come "go time"

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1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

If this comes to pass, I look forward to watching the northern transplants in Raleigh attempt to drive to work  on ZR at 20 degrees... "'Cause they are used to that up north...."

 

No offense to northern transplants in Raleigh who view this board (you're obviously excluded) ;)

LOL that would be me and even up there you can't drive on an ice rink. I will just stay here and get drone shots of the trees and damage.

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1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

Something to remember, this CAD has a direct connection to the parent HP over Canada. Once we start getting the northeasterly wind feed setup later this week, I have a hard time seeing the wedge breaking until the HP moves out of position offshore, which wont' happen until next week. It's honestly going to only get stronger as time goes on and the HP buildings into the Dakotas and eventually slides east.

So we could be looking at several days of freezing rain/sleet coinciding with the STJ impulses that are coming through. The models will likely trend towards this solution over time. 

floop-gfs-2021020912.sfct_b.conus.gif

Yep. If this comes to pass, this high and cold is a different beast than the endless parade of marginal cad events we have had recently. The 12z gfs and Canadian are showing minimal temps of the wedge in the mid teens around 950 to 925mb all the way into ne ga. Been a long time since we have seen a cad event that cold.

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