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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Some interesting run trends today, definitely have to watch the next few days to see what happens. The trend this year has been for the cold to stay West of the apps, and many of the runs continue to show the cold having difficulty making it east of the mtns. Maybe it makes it this time but I would not be surprised to see marginal cold again for most. Looks like we should be paying attention for the next 10 to 15 days though for sure.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

0z NAM going back to its other solutions. Ticking back north unfortunately 

Yep just noticed that too, it's difficult to watch the models literally bounce around 10-14 degrees different in one or two runs. This run had a low pressure off the coast that wasn't on 18z.

trend-nam-2021020900-f075.ref1km_ptype.conus.gif

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14 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Some interesting run trends today, definitely have to watch the next few days to see what happens. The trend this year has been for the cold to stay West of the apps, and many of the runs continue to show the cold having difficulty making it east of the mtns. Maybe it makes it this time but I would not be surprised to see marginal cold again for most. Looks like we should be paying attention for the next 10 to 15 days though for sure.

Not disagreeing, I'm simply pointing out (while I sit here in Cincy watching it puke snow outside) that starting tomorrow the high temps here wont go ABOVE 25° until the middle to end of next week.  This isnt run of the mill transient cold.  This has staying power.  And we would need a monster SER to block and/or moderate this airmass.  I like our chances over the next 10 days.  

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

How’d the 18z euro look at 144hrs in regards to next weeks storm?

EPS Mean trend loop of last 6 runs (ending at hr144 from 18z run).  Wave in SW is gaining in amplitude.  Sharpening ridge in SW Canada helps to strengthen the high over Iowa.  TPV a little slower to escape over SE Canada.  The high and the cold air mass with it favor a winter storm, but if we want more sleet/snow and less freezing rain, I would want to see a more modest amplitude wave over the SW (or have it positioned farther south) and the TPV over SE Canada nudging farther south down into NY/PA here at 144.

 

Feb-8-EPS-Trend.gif

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16 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Not disagreeing, I'm simply pointing out (while I sit here in Cincy watching it puke snow outside) that starting tomorrow the high temps here wont go ABOVE 25° until the middle to end of next week.  This isnt run of the mill transient cold.  This has staying power.  And we would need a monster SER to block and/or moderate this airmass.  I like our chances over the next 10 days.  

Oh, I wasn't disputing you or anything in particular. Really just thinking out loud, not that I know anything. I would honestly like to see some sustained cold, even if it doesn't deliver snow. I've only seen one real cold front this year; the one around Christmas, and that only lasted a couple of days. Everything else has either been seasonable or just below. Despite the persistent -NAO Aand muted SER we have just struggled at getting any real cold across the apps or south of northern VA. 

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