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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s possible with that low track but imo unlikely. A 1040+ mb HP in Pennsylvania, dew points in single digits, and snowpack yo the north. That’s a CAD formula not going to be denied. 

Yeah it won't warm up like the EURO is advertising... that would be a devastating ICE Storm for some folks

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2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Yeah no way that happens with that look. 

That’s a CAD locked in long duration freezing rain/sleet event. Globals are not good at CAD specifics at this range but you’d be hard pressed to come up with a more textbook look for a major ice event for large areas of the Carolinas and Georgia 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s a CAD locked in long duration freezing rain/sleet event. Globals are not good at CAD specifics at this range but you’d be hard pressed to come up with a more textbook look for a major ice event for large areas of the Carolinas and Georgia 

I would hope a lot of us could sleet in northern NC if there’s ZR in Macon Georgia but who knows.

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I'd expect to see a lot of waffling over the next few days, however this is a much more traditional look for a winter storm in favored areas in the Southeast (GA/SC/NC). Especially ice. I think in the end that will win out. The most important feature on this one will be how the 50/50 low trends (see below over the N Atlantic). If this trends weaker, this will be an Apps cutter. We need this to be stout and lock in the HP over the NE. The odds are in our favor as the atlantic has been pretty good for the past month and conducive for lower heights in this area due to the -AO/NAO. To be continued....

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_9.png

 

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Euro matches up fairly well with the ukmet at 144hr. Only difference being the ukmet is colder and more suppressive with the arctic blast. Both models have a potent system in California. 
 

all that matters at this point is that we get the cold press... the the euro/ukmet agree on that. Let’s hope they’re right.
 

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2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I'd expect to see a lot of waffling over the next few days, however this is a much more traditional look for a winter storm in favored areas in the Southeast (GA/SC/NC). Especially ice. I think in the end that will win out. The most important feature on this one will be how the 50/50 low trends (see below over the N Atlantic). If this trends weaker, this will be an Apps cutter. We need this to be stout and lock in the HP over the NE. The odds are in our favor as the atlantic has been pretty good for the past month and conducive for lower heights in this area due to the -AO/NAO. To be continued....

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_9.png

Excellent post. Thanks

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17 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro doesn’t warm up here... still 31 as the precip moves out... most of the 1+ inches of liquid fell with temps around 25. Would be almost entirely sleet Judging by the depth of the cold layer and 925 temps.

Give me rain and 70 all day over a big Freezing rain event.  Sleet, I can take..

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44 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro matches up fairly well with the ukmet at 144hr. Only difference being the ukmet is colder and more suppressive with the arctic blast. Both models have a potent system in California. 
 

all that matters at this point is that we get the cold press... the the euro/ukmet agree on that. Let’s hope they’re right.
 

It’s like Field of Dreams.  Build in the cold high pressure, and the winter storm will come.

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yeah the CMC/RGEM really looked intriguing...

 

I think the key to the end of the week storm is all about timing, which in most ways that's the big puzzle piece to getting any winter storm in the south. Both the Euro and Canadian have the CAD building in stronger throughout the day on Friday and into Saturday. If the system would happen to slow down some and the cold air filter in a little quicker we might have a better chance. 

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