Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yeah hedging or getting excited about one run from any model is a huge mistake and has been all winter. Say what you will but the euro is struggling.  Literally a 20 to 30 degree change for one area in just one run. The GFS has been a bit more consistent recently.  That being said like some of the mets have already said, there are a lot of variables that are going into what is what... You have the MJO, the PV, all the blocking from one end of the globe to the other. The complexity in which current and future weather patterns are based on are line walking on a tight rope currently.  You could go either way. That's why the whole norms of winter are not norms of this winter so far. Ive seen a lot of the pattern will relaxe, or the pattern is ripe when truly we have been stuck in between both so far. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

People are not going to like the snow maps or precip depictions but there’s a lot of potential showing up still. I think a CAD event, or multiple, seem probable in the coming period. 

That's worked so well for us here in the Triangle all winter.  Cold rain with some annoying mixing.  Rinse and repeat.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, BooneWX said:

The signal is there for cold and shots at snow, why is everyone cliff diving? Of course the models aren’t going to be consistent. They’re missing half their data.

This is true. If they had all the data they would be inconsistent in a completely different way.

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Just going to leave this here.

1D93123E-C1F3-4146-A096-F6EA1DDECC56.gif

That would be me and my F250 hauling the cold back from Cincy on Friday.  Highs in the teens, lows below zero here on Friday.  I'll do my part for the forum but somebody else needs to figure out the QPF.  Still a chance for a Valentine's Day surprise!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Wow said:

18z gfs is a dumpster fire.  Ridge holds over the east coast.  Who the hell knows whats going to happen

18Z GEFS was also a bummer.  A ~6 F jump in average temperature at 1 pm from the 18Z yesterday in central NC .  The big cold was completely lost.  So I am assuming that the PV must be in the west this run.

That PV is driving me insane.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, CaryWx said:

You've had some decent hits up that way haven't you?  I think you'll get a few more

I’ve had a couple of snow days so to say but only around 4 inches total. Now 30 min north of me and west they have had several inches so far. All about elevation I suppose 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Pacific is too active and not enough ridging out west. This allows the SE ridge to flex. We have cold air spilling into the southern plains instead.

 

It has been the problem all winter. We have had the best Atlantic setup in a decade but it has basically been canceled out due to the Pacific. I think having the -NAO it has allowed us a little snow this winter. If we didn't have the -NAO/AO, we would have most likely torched

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The Pacific is too active and not enough ridging out west. This allows the SE ridge to flex. We have cold air spilling into the southern plains instead.

 

It has been the problem all winter. We have had the best Atlantic setup in a decade but it has basically been canceled out due to the Pacific. I think having the -NAO it has allowed us a little snow this winter. If we didn't have the -NAO/AO, we would have most likely torched

Yep. This. At least cold air is in striking distance now but that SE ridge seems to always win out when it’s established. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...