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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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44 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Gfs para looks to be a juice bomb at 60 getting ready to turn nw as well

@66 and @72 @BornAgain13 might not want to look could give you a heart attack. Just an absolute mauling. Very Nam’ish 

solid 6-10” event for NC mountains/southern va. Even some accumulation back into the NW triad. Haven’t looked at 850s or upstairs to see if it’s all snow.

Yeah this is getting interesting quick... hopefully EURO/UK will follow suit

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8 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

For Sunday's storm the Canadian is moving toward the other models. One more trend like this would definitely put some snow in WNC.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh72_trend.gif

Looks like Upper low keeps digging stronger and further south each run too, I think it will keep correcting like this for a couple more runs. 

gem_z500_vort_us_fh66_trend.gif

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Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above.F94FD4A8-BDA7-4FFF-8030-04958B07F943.thumb.png.1fef69395f43e08069b5d4fdece03598.png

The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying.

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Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above.F94FD4A8-BDA7-4FFF-8030-04958B07F943.thumb.png.1fef69395f43e08069b5d4fdece03598.png
The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying.
I noticed that too, we are still 10 days out so it could swing back

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above.F94FD4A8-BDA7-4FFF-8030-04958B07F943.thumb.png.1fef69395f43e08069b5d4fdece03598.png

The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying.

The more progressive solution is the game changer. If this trend continues, expect to see a less amplified system and the 850 line progressing nw. Wouldn’t call this a a NW trend, per se, but more of a weaker system and different setup 

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20 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Idk it still trended towards its OP run even if it masked it well. It still sped things up by at least a half day and the thermals were way different. The 850 freezing line was way further south on the 0z GEFS than the one above.F94FD4A8-BDA7-4FFF-8030-04958B07F943.thumb.png.1fef69395f43e08069b5d4fdece03598.png

The issue as far as I can tell is the SE Canada Vortex isn't getting out of the way like it was on yesterday's runs. Keeps our wave from slowing down and amplifying.

Agreed. Its significantly warmer. 

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4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The mean is warmer Bc There are several solutions like the OP and warmer. Doesn’t mean that’s how it’s going to pan out. There are lots of cold solutions too.  The cmc keeps the Canadian vortex moving east as does last nights euro. 

Hence the bated breath await now. 

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23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The more progressive solution is the game changer. If this trend continues, expect to see a less amplified system and the 850 line progressing nw. Wouldn’t call this a a NW trend, per se, but more of a weaker system and different setup 

Yes, we want our storm wave (if it actually exists come go time ha) to dig south more which would give us that additional latitude to play with AND to slow it down so that the high has a chance to build in some ahead of time 

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Regarding the airplane obs, it's a significant issue and was extremely noticeable in the earlier stages of the pandemic when there were even fewer planes in the air.

I expect the trends toward a wetter solution this weekend to continue. The question is how much phasing/ cold air is available for non-mountain NC areas. To be determined.

I still like the looks of the pattern for next week.

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