NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I wouldn’t worry about storm specifics at this point. In these parts let the cold come and worry about the storm later. Looks like our first real arctic push this season 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The GFS is getting a better idea but it still keeps trying to pump the SE ridge at times while the CMC and Euro at the same time periods are flatter. It’s really bizarre to see the cold bias model do that but it’s had issues all winter trying to pump that SE ridge at times 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 16 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The airmass incoming is extremely cold and extremely dry. Check out the dew points. If we get a system within a few days of the air mass settling in it will be frozen. Yep. Not gonna worry about specifics, this is pattern recognition 101. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 There’s several things we haven’t seen in a few years on the table for next week: lows in the single digits, maybe close to zero in the foothills and the border counties with Virginia with highs for several days in the twenties. The ground is going to be a brick. We haven’t had antecedent conditions like this for a storm since February 2014. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: There’s several things we haven’t seen in a few years on the table for next week: lows in the single digits, maybe close to zero in the foothills and the border counties with Virginia with highs for several days in the twenties. The ground is going to be a brick. We haven’t had antecedent conditions like this for a storm since February 2014. The question though Bull, is this transient cold air that is moderating (or moving out) by Weds afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 We are still 7 days out. I expect this to moderate and be transient. Highs in the mid-upper 30s for central NC look likely....I'm not sold on anything colder this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, PackGrad05 said: We are still 7 days out. I expect this to moderate and be transient. Highs in the mid-upper 30s for central NC look likely....I'm not sold on anything colder this far out. Wildreman, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Wildreman, is that you? haha I love the pattern and the signal, but I want it to get within 5 days and still be locked in. And as I mentioned, it moderates a few days after and another cold surge coming but as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z Para at day 9 with a suppressed option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, griteater said: 12z Para at day 9 with a suppressed option Can’t get much better HP placement. Storm right where we want it at this stage lol. Those of you talking pattern recognition have been harping on this time period for awhile. Good to see models showing some love. I am as optimistic about the next two weeks as any winter period the last 3 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 GEFS Ensemble Members. Check out the one at the bottom right 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Para at day 9 with a suppressed option Can't say suppression around here Grit. The masses are quite sensitive and you get quickly labeled as "Aldi Brand Widermann". 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Great day at that panel in lower right. Buried I tell ya! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Para at day 9 with a suppressed option Exactly where I want it at this Range (scheming hands together gesture) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: GEFS Ensemble Members. Check out the one at the bottom right If that panned out I’d sell the next 2 winters and take 0” and 70’s every day and be totally content 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The fact models seem to have this event next Wednesdayish and place it anywhere from below NC (miss) to up into Va (rain) is about the best we can hope for at this range given the model mayhem this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 34 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Para at day 9 with a suppressed option Perfect! I'd much rather see a POSSIBLE storm 9 days out show up too far south. I've been burned by the north trend for at least 15 years...LOL! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, CaryWx said: The fact models seem to have this event next Wednesdayish and place it anywhere from below NC (miss) to up into Va (rain) is about the best we can hope for at this range given the model mayhem this season. I’m just happy for the first time this year it looks like we will have a bonafide arctic airmass to work with. If last Thursday’s event had more cold air it could’ve been an area-wide warning level event. Was still a good storm. A few degrees makes all the difference as always 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euro coming in bigger with the Sunday storm for parts of the forum prior to the bigger cold plunge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro coming in bigger with the Sunday storm for parts of the forum prior to the bigger cold plunge That’s gonna be the difference between ten and zero with this cold plunge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 The new compare models feature on pivotal weather is pretty sick. Anyhow...the Euro has been consistent with a coastal next Sunday and a pretty good cold air mass in place. Can't have the storm to amped or two flat, kinda a thread the needle scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euro has an absolute bomb in the NE. 970 over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 That will be some wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Look at these wind chills 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Euro out to hr180 looks like it’s setting up pretty nicely for mid next week. Let’s see where it goes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, griteater said: Euro out to hr180 looks like it’s setting up pretty nicely for mid next week. Let’s see where it goes At 186 its looking pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Incoming 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Out to hr 210, the Euro looks like the Jan 30, 2010 Miller A/B Hybrid storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 PV Hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Monster snow for WNC, ice all the way to Columbia 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now