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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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7 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

I thought the euro is 0z and 12z? Hey mods, has anyone ever posted the adjusted real times of model runs.


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subtract 5hrs for ET.  euro runs 4x a day now  0z, 6z, 12z, 18z.  The 6z and 18z do not have all or full up-to-date inputs the 0z and 12z use

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So question? I haven’t had time to look at models yet. When you’re all saying “bad trends or not good “ are we talking Just snow chance has dissipated? Or are we talking ICE and sleet as well? Some of us like sleet/ice lol Sorry I’d look for myself but I’m getting married tomorrow and I’m busy. I’ve tried to follow along with maps but I haven’t seen a FRZN/IP Map since yesterday Eve. Just SN maps. So I’m just curious? I’m hoping to hve some time this afternoon. Thanks! 

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2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Weird. Looks a little warmer at the surface but way more ice this run on the 3K. Would love to see it trend towards sleet and a touch of snow, but if my only option is 31 and rain, I’ll pass and take 33 and rain. 

Yeah, I agree.  I like my power. Haha. 

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4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Canadian sticking to its guns. Verbatim it would be an inch of frz rain on the i40 corridor from Asheville to the triad and just north of the triangle. Sleet fest just north of there. 
 

edit: it’s certainly overdone given that most areas are 32-33 

Icon is similar if not colder. And the icon is usually too warm at the surface. 

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

12Z NAM tries to bring in a period of FZRA to north central NC on Sunday...   the timing saves a lot of central NC.  If the precip sped up, it would be more of an issue.  

That's one thing I have noticed, the timing is getting slower and slower which is allowing more time to warm up

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Icon is similar if not colder. And the icon is usually too warm at the surface. 

That’s something I’ve really been watching. It doesn’t have a designated snow vs ice vs rain delineation built in but it def is normally a “warmer” model. Something to keep an eye on. It is bone chilling outside right now so it’s gotta at least lay some good groundwork or preceding conditions for this storm for some of us.

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26 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Canadian sticking to its guns. Verbatim it would be an inch of frz rain on the i40 corridor from Asheville to the triad and just north of the triangle. Sleet fest just north of there. 
 

edit: it’s certainly overdone given that most areas are 32-33 

RGEM keeps me between 28-31 for most if not all the event...

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7 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It is risky business to bet against the RGEM in any form in a damming scenario. 

I tend to think however it does run a little too cold in some instances but this atmosphere we have preceding the storm is pretty damn cold. I mean even some of those zr numbers if you cut them in half are still a terrible scenario. 

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