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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

The GFS was hot garbage. Para looked ok for decent thump to dry slot. It’s pretty much most guidance against gfs so there’s that but then a lot of us are actually rooting for the gfs for Thursday’s system so who knows. 

If gfs proves to be correct with Thursday system then we will worry about it being right for Sunday which I Doubt will happen. 

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1 minute ago, Ghicks said:

If gfs proves to be correct with Thursday system then we will worry about it being right for Sunday which I Doubt will happen. 

Yea the evolution of the entire system for the weekend is wonky on the GFS. Is it wrong? Not necessarily. Does it have tendencies and known biases? Absolutely. It’s the warmest of the models right now. Between Canadian and GFS, GFS is off by a good 5mb with the high pressure. So we’re talking a 1032 vs 1037 mb hp. Big time difference. Other factor to weigh is the GFS has a very strong vort like Euro middle of the country. Problem is GFS opens up and sends a strung out weak discombobulated mess eastward while the Euro continues to keep its strength. That would have big impacts downstream. 

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I think we'll see the Euro look better with the weekend threat as we get closer just like with the storm tonight into tomorrow. I still think it is better with what actually happens than the GFS, but it just has slower trends than the GFS. GFS seems to latch on one solution and hold on to it forever or make huge jumps. Euro seems to be more gradual with its trends.

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Looking at 12 UTC GFS, still like the period of 10th - 12th.  Maybe the coldest air of the winter across the upper Midwest just prior to this time frame with some 20 below readings.  Looks to spill south and eastward with a possible low development across deep south.  Of course this morning's 06 UTC showed a major winter storm for Brownsville and northern Mexico during this time.  If Monterey, Mexico and Madrid, Spain (18" on Jan 9) wind up with more snow than me this winter, I'll be pissed :P

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