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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

This is the craziest thing I've seen.  (well, not really since I've lived in central NC my whole life).  
Local meteorologists must be going crazy....  
You also have to remember that most of these model outputs assume 10:1 and combine sleet/snow, etc...  
Looking at soundings, it really doesn't cool off enough until the end, and then barely if that.  

It seems highly unlikely that what the latest GFS is spitting out will verify for middle Tennessee, so I’m having trouble being sold on this for our side of the Apps.  I might get 1” at best.

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14 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

Somebody in the Raleigh area needs to start the thread.  Pronto.

Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs.  Let's see who bites where.  Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation 

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31 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Maybe after 18z models come in or better yet after next 00z (27th) runs.  Let's see who bites where.  Cannot go on like this with so much differentiation 

If someone makes a thread after 00z runs it’ll be a day of obs thread. This is going down tomorrow, not 3 days out. That’s what’s shocking about some of the models trending in our favor inside 36 hours from go time. Euro will be telling. But seeing some short range guidance jump on board in addition to gfs and v16 and the Canadian remaining steady, there is a chance this thing pulls the comeback. I know the storm totals on those 10:1 models are way overblown but even a widespread 1-3” storm would be welcome by every member on here in their back yard 

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If someone makes a thread after 00z runs it’ll be a day of obs thread. This is going down tomorrow, not 3 days out. That’s what’s shocking about some of the models trending in our favor inside 36 hours from go time. Euro will be telling. But seeing some short range guidance jump on board in addition to gfs and v16 and the Canadian remaining steady, there is a chance this thing pulls the comeback. I know the storm totals on those 10:1 models are way overblown but even a widespread 1-3” storm would be welcome by every member on here in their back yard 

This is an event where we could be averaging close to 10:1, especially as 850s cool. 

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4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That was not the nail in the coffin EURO run many were expecting. This thing officially has legs. Every model has trended better since yesterday or at least stayed the same in CMC and V16’s case. Trying hard not to get at least a little excited 

Agree,how many times have we watched the exact opposite happen as quickly. 

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I love the mountains and I like the people who live there.  But I just want someone in this thread who lives below 1,000 feet to get popped with half a foot of snow this week.  It doesn’t have to be me.  It’s just that we’ve been so snow starved and I want to experience childlike giddiness through pictures.  I’ll settle for vicarious joy.

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