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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Guys, I literally don’t think north or south really even matters at this point. It’s dead. What made this event really special was the potential for it to bomb off of the coast and draw a lot of moisture that way. With this speedier trend, not only is the duration cut, but we also completely lose the *magic* for lack of a better word of a sub 990 low off of the coast. For all intents and purposes, we may as well be dealing with a clipper with marginal temperatures. It’s a shame it’s worked out this way.

 

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As we all know living in the southeast everything has to be perfect outside of the mountains for a winter storm for us folks in the foothills piedmont triangle eastern nc upstate sc. I'm in the southern foothills. I hate to say it but it sure looks like it's going to take a miracle to get any snow outside of the mountains this year with our time running out. Things can change on a dime around but man am I feeling such a let down with this winter even though it has been colder than last winter by far. I feel all my fellow snow lovers pain. We only have such a short window for snow outside of the mountains around here. Hopefully things can change for us to have a least a chance in feb. I want to throw in the towel but I just can't yet but I sure want to. I really enjoy everyone's insight on hear.  Hopefully someone cashes in with this potential storm. 

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Having lived most of my 43yrs in NC(Rowan County until 12th grade, now Concord), winter is normally one let down after another. But records  show that outside of the high country and foothills, we see an avg of 3-7" depending.  About 4-5 imby. 

   Most years that's what adds up. An inch here and there, and usually a storm with great potential starts as snow and then that pesky warm nose turns it into a sleet festival.

  All that to say , there was no accumulating snow last year where I live. Saw some flakes? Sure. But it stands out because I'm going on 700+ days without seeing the ground white. 

   I will be super shocked to see that happen back to back. 

  There is STILL roughly 40-50 days for all of us to see accumulating snow. I firmly believe we will.

  I can't read the models, but I can speak from experience. 

   Hang in there. We all know that February and the first 10 days of March are game time!! 

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34 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Para against the world. Wow, I really thought someone from DC to N.C. would get a storm. This thing has sped up and left the cold air behind and also doesn’t allow the low to bomb out and throw all that much precip on its backside. Swing and a miss 

The euro would imply we get at least a little something even if it is just mood flakes driving to work Thursday. The interesting thing about the GFSv16 is it's 10 degrees colder on Wednesday than the current GFS and closely matches the Euro. We'll see if it's right.

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Having lived most of my 43yrs in NC(Rowan County until 12th grade, now Concord), winter is normally one let down after another. But records  show that outside of the high country and foothills, we see an avg of 3-7" depending.  About 4-5 imby. 
   Most years that's what adds up. An inch here and there, and usually a storm with great potential starts as snow and then that pesky warm nose turns it into a sleet festival.
  All that to say , there was no accumulating snow last year where I live. Saw some flakes? Sure. But it stands out because I'm going on 700+ days without seeing the ground white. 
   I will be super shocked to see that happen back to back. 
  There is STILL roughly 40-50 days for all of us to see accumulating snow. I firmly believe we will.
  I can't read the models, but I can speak from experience. 
   Hang in there. We all know that February and the first 10 days of March are game time!! 


I think the thing that spoiled me when I moved to N GA (from Florida) in 2004 was the number of years we got snow.
To make it worse, Apple loves popping up “memories” of snow. That being said, MOST of those are from mid-late January to Valentines Day - so I hold out hope.

I also ignore the GFS...

Happy hunting.


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17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Well I have enjoyed this cool dry spell but warmer, wet weather looks to return for the next few weeks at least. 

I don’t see much of this warmer weather .. unless you call low 50s warm .. I don’t see anything above 60 for another week and a half and after that who knows what the weather could be like with how volatile the models are... but with this next “storm” it will continue to filter in our cool to cold pattern for the time being

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27 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 12z GFS Para and RGEM both are the 2 coldest models for Thursday.... showing accumulating snow for northern NC , Southern VA , are they right? I doubt it but something to watch maybe

It’s the v16 against the world.  It’s showing rates overcoming borderline surface temperatures.  I’ll believe it when I see it.

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1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Canadian model went towards the GFS Para. Trends are colder with it. Big snow storm for parts of Central NC and North-Northeast NC. I believe other models will start to show this. 

Just saw that.  That is quite interesting if it pans but it does give the other 2 models some street cred.

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