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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Ain’t mad at it 

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5h def doesn’t look good IMO tho if you compare it to gfs. Nam has a lot more of a positive tilt although it looks like it’s trying to interact with the tpv some so I’m not sure how that will tie into it. At this point my thoughts kind of have to change here looking at afternoon guidance. Everything hints toward more of a southern solution but giving up strength and energy at the same time. I believe GFS may end up on an island at some point if Euro doesn’t lend some support that way. We used to love to see nam amped if it was gonna be significant or a doozy and I’m not sure if they’ve corrected it since the update happened.

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

You’re right.  It’s Tuesday’s highs warmed up a little compared to yesterday’s NAM runs, but its colder than the other models for this system.  The NAM is asking us to not give up just yet.

I can’t help but chuckle because if I lived in N NC I would be doing the same thing.  I love model hugging . Down my way the cut us off early . Lol . Good luck to those close to VA border 

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Hard to figure out Thursday guys and gals... it looks like it's either a storm or bust.... with the wave now on shore or close , should have some good data go into it for the 0z Suites tonight 

Yeah, 12z Euro and 18z GFS have been somewhat discouraging but 18z NAM was decent so???? Hopefully we'll have a better understanding by 12z/0z tomorrow. 

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14 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Yeah, 12z Euro and 18z GFS have been somewhat discouraging but 18z NAM was decent so???? Hopefully we'll have a better understanding by 12z/0z tomorrow. 

I’m pulling for you Virginia folks. I think it will be clearer by Monday pm

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

I don’t think we are going to go traditional La Niña Feb torch this winter, but we shall see 

Would have had a Torch much of the winter so far had it not been for the blocking. Hopefully, we can maintain that thru Feb. and bonus March. Can u imagine if we'd had a decent PAC Setup.!?

    Another thing that would sure help Is if the emerging MJO can get into the "nowadays ever so elusive in winter"  cold phases. 

        

      

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45 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

The MJO not going there until Feb 15th earliest. I read.   That's getting close to winter overtime around here  

I wish I understood more about the MJO and how to track it etc. I really am just lost about this subject. I read up on it and still just don’t understand. Maybe someone knowledgeable could educate . Do you know what else would be cool? When we have a legit threat we do like a zoom call and discuss. We wouldn’t have many calls lol . 

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I wish I understood more about the MJO and how to track it etc. I really am just lost about this subject. I read up on it and still just don’t understand. Maybe someone knowledgeable could educate . Do you know what else would be cool? When we have a legit threat we do like a zoom call and discuss. We wouldn’t have many calls lol . 

In a nutshell (and Eric Webb knows leagues more about this than I do), MJO follows an area of low level convergence (indicated by enhanced thunderstorms) over the Indian Ocean. Thunderstorms release latent heat which can help initiate/build ridges. That ridge can dig a trough downstream, that trough can then build a ridge downstream of it..... you get the idea. Each *phase* is linked to a different area where this convergence is happening, so each phase will make that wave train align a little differently. I know you said you read about this, but I think the literature can be a little too “academic” for laymen to understand.

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We saw some great model runs with this. However, the final *nail* was the speed up today. By the time this storm bombed off the coast, it was too far away for us to reap benefits. I will hope for some token flakes but I will not be staying up until 3AM on Wednesday night to see it, I have things to do! I will not lose hope; over the years seems like every time hope is lost, some sort of event bails is out.

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8 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

We saw some great model runs with this. However, the final *nail* was the speed up today. By the time this storm bombed off the coast, it was too far away for us to reap benefits. I will hope for some token flakes but I will not be staying up until 3AM on Wednesday night to see it, I have things to do! I will not lose hope; over the years seems like every time hope is lost, some sort of event bails is out.

Last year was as awful as could be and we still had that late February event so you’re definitely right.

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