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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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210127/2100Z 159  06006KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36    0|  0|100
210128/0000Z 162  03006KT  35.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42    0|  0|100
210128/0300Z 165  07009KT  35.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56    0|  0|100
210128/0600Z 168  03009KT  32.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.235    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80    0|  0|100
210128/0900Z 171  02011KT  29.7F  SNOW   15:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.470   15:1|  7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.27  100|  0|  0
210128/1200Z 174  36012KT  26.5F  SNOW   11:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.314   14:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.58  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210128/1500Z 177  36014KT  26.0F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067   13:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65  100|  0|  0
210128/1800Z 180  36011KT  31.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65    0|  0|  0
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1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

You're the pro so you're seeing things I'm not I am sure. I'm concerned that the flow looked so progressive on the euro. If we can slow it down like we had yesterday at 12z then I think we've got a pretty good signal. 

This is what I saw: 

I really like to compare ensembles on if their "seeing" the S/W. GFS ENS did- check the indent over the Missouri Valley on 6z:

gfs-ens_z500a_us_28.png

Euro ENS on same timeframe had a ridge in basically the same place:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_8.png

 

We hem and haw about how "oh yeah its 7 days away the models dont know anything" but i generally believe the wheat separates from the chaff in the 7-9 day timeframe. If Euro got on board and showed a weaker ridge and stronger S/W signal, that was when I'd start salivating. Unfortunately, 12z models are bending towards the Euro. Hopefully the Euro produces better news in an hour.

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For what it is worth, the 12z GEFS had a better run than 6z. 

35 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

This is what I saw: 

I really like to compare ensembles on if their "seeing" the S/W. GFS ENS did- check the indent over the Missouri Valley on 6z:

 

Euro ENS on same timeframe had a ridge in basically the same place:

 

 

We hem and haw about how "oh yeah its 7 days away the models dont know anything" but i generally believe the wheat separates from the chaff in the 7-9 day timeframe. If Euro got on board and showed a weaker ridge and stronger S/W signal, that was when I'd start salivating. Unfortunately, 12z models are bending towards the Euro. Hopefully the Euro produces better news in an hour.

Fingers crossed it does. 

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15 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

How did the UK look? I know it only goes to 144 , but was it headed for a decent solution?

TBH, glanced at it to confirm my priors that this was a doom and gloom suite, and instead thought it looked pretty good. It only goes to hour 144, but it had a robust shortwave over OK going in a more eastward direction than some other models we've seen. Hopefully it's a harbinger to changes on the Euro, rolling out as we speak.

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2 hours ago, BullCityWx said:

Whatever much of my tax dollars goes to keep up the GFS, it's too much. This run, the surface low moves 600 miles NW at 156 then transfers to off CHS at 162. Uh huh. Sure. 

Agreed,  we can put a missile through a window pane 4500 miles away but we don’t have much more accurate weather models than 5 years ago.  The technology has to be there!  I get this is comparing apples to oranges but it seems off!

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Van Denton

@VanFOX8Weather

· 7m

A day to watch. Thursday, Jan 28th. Since Monday on TV, I have been showing the Snow/Sleet odds and the chance has increased steadily for that day. From 20% on Monday, to 26% on Tues to 33% on Wed and today it is now showing 45%. Still no guarantee and also 7 days away.

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