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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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20 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I am sorry, but there is an 06z and 18z ECMWF run. However, those runs only go out to 96 hours instead of 240.

True but most people just stick to the 0 and 12z runs.  Not every model website offers the 6/18z Euro either.  The 0z and 12z are the most popular ones

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30 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Still got a lazy eye on what passes through Thursday. That is a perfect example of an event that could jump north quickly.

Agreed. Looks like the latest NAM suite is spitting out mostly virga over NC piedmont on Thursday morning. Very dry 925 layer. 2m temps around 40. 2m dew point in the mid 20s. Wet bulb around freezing. A little juice and we could see a sleet pellet or two.

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I used to follow Larry Cosgrove back in the day when I was more active with weather.  He just posted in tropical discussions:

Just so you know, however, that the analog system projects a very warm April and May, and a searing hot summer with multiple East Coast hurricane threats. So enjoy the chill and the chance for whote powder, because "Redux 2020 Hurricane Season" is high on the probability charts. Maybe  it will be a season with 1996 like tracks.
 
Sleep well tonight.
 
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, January 16, 2020 at 9:40 P.M. CT
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1 hour ago, griteater said:

18z Para was a beauty at 500mb for next Wed/Thu. That’s our best shot at something working out with the ridge going up behind the wave...and confluent flow held the whole time over PA/NY as the wave tracked across the country - not allowing the wave to climb north 

That is beautiful. Kind of strange looking how tracks. Weenie run for me . Sure would like to see some consistency. 

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13 minutes ago, Grayman said:

That is beautiful. Kind of strange looking how tracks. Weenie run for me . Sure would like to see some consistency. 

This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. :lol:

Looks like a Palmetto state special

Capture.JPG

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1 hour ago, Avdave said:

This is how this season would go, you get a good pasting an all the way down to Savannah, GA gets snow and its cloudy and cold in the triangle. :lol:

Looks like a Palmetto state special

Capture.JPG

I’m such a weenie I’m googling Gfs para consistency . Stupid question. Is Gfs para and Gfs V16 same thing?

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