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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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The 18z Para basically has the same setup as the Euro for mid next week, though it's a bit north and warmer (snow in W NC into W VA)...no biggie on the difference there.

Over the last few weeks, the Pacific pattern has been pretty bad with low anomalies in Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.  That has flooded Canada and the northern U.S. with warmth.  Today is the final day of that pattern.

YEqCyga.png

The Pacific jet will begin to retract and slow down, and a ridge develops just off the west coast, then retrogrades all the way out to the Aleutian Islands (per model ensembles).  Our best setup for the foreseeable future looks like it will indeed be next week as the pattern will feature a maturing -NAO along with western ridging that is in a favorable location off the west coast (favorable only because of the -NAO).  The Euro has the setup to look for of a wave toppling the western ridging and diving down into Northern Mexico, before moving E or ENE underneath a cutoff low over the Northeast, which is underneath a maturing Greenland ridge.

Here's the 5 day mean for Mon-Sat next week on the 18z GEFS

C3VB4h4.png

After next week, the ensembles want to send us into a 'Snowfall in Seattle' pattern with ridging out in the Aleutians and troughing along the west coast (though the -AO/-NAO remains).  The tropical forcing / enhanced tropical convection hasn't done us any favors thus far this winter and is at least part of the reason for why the Pacific pattern hasn't been better.  The hope was that the enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and Indonesia would die down as we go into late January, but that does not appear to be the case.  You can see here the signal for enhanced convection there in the blue colors.  This is typical of La Nina climatology.  Having said that, it is rare to not see an MJO circuit thru the more favorable phases (7-8-1-2) at some point during the winter, even during La Nina...maybe we get one of those circuits in Feb?  Prior to that, the Alaska ridging and -AO/-NAO (if real) could keep us in the hunt as it will be much colder to our north and northwest than we've seen thus far this winter.

QfbQpbC.png

 

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5 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

The South of the Border Crusher: Actually just misses to the north. Pedro would have been  happy in 9 days. Is that place still open??

 

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

It won't, but if that panned out, after I just moved from Stallings to Durham without seeing more than an inch or two in 8 years......i'd prolly flip out

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4 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hey man , we need maps to help encourage us lol

I’m really not trying to call the guy out but he is the ultimate weenie and btw I wish we could agree to at least post timelines and general areas. This snow to ice to snow with no time period is frustrating. Btw hour 354 of the gfs says the entire southeast with massive snow. Lol 

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16 minutes ago, Grayman said:

I’m really not trying to call the guy out but he is the ultimate weenie and btw I wish we could agree to at least post timelines and general areas. This snow to ice to snow with no time period is frustrating. Btw hour 354 of the gfs says the entire southeast with massive snow. Lol 

So BullCity is the ultimate weenie?  OK. In what way exactly?

Also, your next point about posting timelines - I mean, you always have the option to go take a look at the model for yourself, tropicaltidbits.com.  This kind of fits in to a life rule of mine that nice gestures should always be appreciated, and never expected. So, no need to expect to be spoon fed with model output in here 

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32 minutes ago, griteater said:

So BullCity is the ultimate weenie?  OK. In what way exactly?

Also, your next point about posting timelines - I mean, you always have the option to go take a look at the model for yourself, tropicaltidbits.com.  This kind of fits in to a life rule of mine that nice gestures should always be appreciated, and never expected. So, no need to expect to be spoon fed with model output in here 

You point is taken. I’m not going to argue with one of the smartest guys on the board.  I’m here to learn and was just having a little fun with it. I honestly have no idea how to find the control run of the euro on TT and thought the point of the board was to share info. Sorry if I offended you or bull city . I feel like if I answer the weenie part I will just be flaming at this point.  

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59 minutes ago, griteater said:

So BullCity is the ultimate weenie?  OK. In what way exactly?

Also, your next point about posting timelines - I mean, you always have the option to go take a look at the model for yourself, tropicaltidbits.com.  This kind of fits in to a life rule of mine that nice gestures should always be appreciated, and never expected. So, no need to expect to be spoon fed with model output in here 

Good comments.  We all need to understand that model watching/commenting is not meteorology.   Meteorology is understanding atmospheric science and having the ability to forecast the weather based on that understanding of science. Meteorology is best left to the Mets. Fortunately, we also have some longterm experienced posters such as yourself that offer great analysis.  That’s why I enjoy the board.  Therefore, I have no issues with someone posting/commenting on models/maps as long as they offer us a little informed context.  On the other hand, just posting comments such as “12z is a dumpster fire” or “the Euro is a boom” bring little to the forum.  Now off my soapbox....back to our regularly scheduled programming. 

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1 hour ago, Grayman said:

You point is taken. I’m not going to argue with one of the smartest guys on the board.  I’m here to learn and was just having a little fun with it. I honestly have no idea how to find the control run of the euro on TT and thought the point of the board was to share info. Sorry if I offended you or bull city . I feel like if I answer the weenie part I will just be flaming at this point.  

Well, you bring up a fair point about the Control run as you aren't going to find that on TT.  We're all on here to have a little fun.  Some venture more into the why behind the snow, while others mostly just want to see it snow....both are fine, but ultimately, I think we should all strive to be contributors in some way, shape, or form, and not a distraction.  No worries.

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37 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Good comments.  We all need to understand that model watching/commenting is not meteorology.   Meteorology is understanding atmospheric science and having the ability to forecast the weather based on that understanding of science. Meteorology is best left to the Mets. Fortunately, we also have some longterm experienced posters such as yourself that offer great analysis.  That’s why I enjoy the board.  Therefore, I have no issues with someone posting/commenting on models/maps as long as they offer us a little informed context.  On the other hand, just posting comments such as “12z is a dumpster fire” or “the Euro is a boom” bring little to the forum.  Now off my soapbox....back to our regularly scheduled programming. 

I agree. If you are not being constructive, then you shouldn't post. I learned that lesson way back in the Americanwx and Stormvista days. Good to see some of you guys have been with us for more than 10 years. Now back to the weather.....

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6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I agree. If you are not being constructive, then you shouldn't post. I learned that lesson way back in the Americanwx and Stormvista days. Good to see some of you guys have been with us for more than 10 years. Now back to the weather.....

Thanks for understanding men. I’ve been a Lurker but trying to learn a bit more than the past. Part of it is my frustration with trying to understand. No hard feels toward anyone. My fault for the post 

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Here is the GEFS from days 4 to 16.  It's hard to ask for much more from the AO/NAO.  Ridge climbs up into Greenland and retrogrades west, then southwest which moves the storm track south in the eastern U.S. there toward the end of the loop.  Meanwhile, there is some cross-polar flow that sends cold air down into W Canada.  Ultimately, the Pacific pattern kind of blows as a trough sinks into the Pacific Northwest...it's the going theme this winter of bad North Pacific pattern vs. good North Atlantic pattern (at times).  This go around, we'll have more cold air to work with as seen in the 2nd loop, as the bad Pacific pattern is a big ridge in the central North Pacific (colder air to our NW) as opposed to a big low in Alaska and Gulf of Alaska (warmer air to our NW).  We can score in this pattern, but the Atlantic side pattern will need to flex its muscles and force the storm track south, not far fetched if we do indeed get a healthy -NAO.

6xKMX2Z.gif

5Z2lH7X.gif

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35 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here is the GEFS from days 4 to 16.  It's hard to ask for much more from the AO/NAO.  Ridge climbs up into Greenland and retrogrades west, then southwest which moves the storm track south in the eastern U.S. there toward the end of the loop.  Meanwhile, there is some cross-polar flow that sends cold air down into W Canada.  Ultimately, the Pacific pattern kind of blows as a trough sinks into the Pacific Northwest...it's the going theme this winter of bad North Pacific pattern vs. good North Atlantic pattern (at times).  This go around, we'll have more cold air to work with as seen in the 2nd loop, as the bad Pacific pattern is a big ridge in the central North Pacific (colder air to our NW) as opposed to a big low in Alaska and Gulf of Alaska (warmer air to our NW).  We can score in this pattern, but the Atlantic side pattern will need to flex its muscles and force the storm track south, not far fetched if we do indeed get a healthy -NAO.

 

 

Excellent graphics.  Thanks for the post.  What exactly is the ideal Pacific pattern for SE snow?  I know that a big EPO ridge can lead to some nice cold shots, but I have also heard they tend to be cold and dry followed by warm ups when SWs come through

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16 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Excellent graphics.  Thanks for the post.  What exactly is the ideal Pacific pattern for SE snow?  I know that a big EPO ridge can lead to some nice cold shots, but I have also heard they tend to be cold and dry followed by warm ups when SWs come through

For winter storms, maybe something in between these 2.  1st image is the top 20 -AO + -NAO days on record for Dec-Feb - it has a nice Aleutian Low anomaly and weak western ridging...2nd image is the late Jan to early Mar pattern in 2010

8fiek37.png

VcYISR3.gif

 

For cold, here are the patterns for the top 10 coldest Dec / Jan months (I think I did these for top cold in Charlotte):

XnGOPxn.png

RqyNWgx.png

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