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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Long range Euro is a disaster but at least we get some dry warm days

Not trying to single you out, but the hyperbole-laden, emotional posts like this make the board unbearable at times. 
 

Warm days? Where?

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Nice to see multiple threats show up on the 12Z GFSv16 today.  Hours 138, 198, and 324 all show potential for snowfall in the SE.  Different types of systems in each case, and still way out in the future, but they demonstrate what is possible when we have an active storm track and some blocking.  I am excited about the possibilities...

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26 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Not trying to single you out, but the hyperbole-laden, emotional posts like this make the board unbearable at times. 
 

Warm days? Where?

Tell me then why I should be enthused by the upcoming pattern? A lot of Mets have been saying this is the time period for east coast cold and storms and its not matriculating for now. I'm still learning about pattern recognition and want to sincerely ask what's exciting about the next 2 weeks 

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

UK only goes out to 144 but extrapolating it was going to be a major winter storm for WNC and N/W of 85. 

I agree that this definitely looks like a western NC hit.  Going negative tilt too early for the eastern part of NC.

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44 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Do any of you guys know much about the polar vortex? I understand the warming then it splits but what is needed for that cold to spill toward the southeast? 

Usually if the polar vortex is floating around southeastern canada, that is a colder pattern for us. It could also induce supression. Actually, that question came at a great time as DT explains the potential coming pattern well: 

https://twitter.com/wxrisksecs1/status/1349042151544532994?s=20

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

It is bad if you are expecting a cold snowy pattern like many were harping for this time period. There are days in the 50s and little moisture 

qpf_acc.conus (1).png

sfct.us_ma (2).png

I wouldn't say there's one specific threat to be excited about, but I see tons of signs that we at least have chances coming over the next few weeks. This time of the season, if you can maintain near or slightly below average temps, magic can happen. Doesn't have to be 10 days of 20 below average deviations.

The NAO and AO are looking to be favorable, and the EPO and WPO are finally getting more favorable.

The one thing I don't like is losing the +PNA, but it is what it is.

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Just now, msuwx said:

I wouldn't say there's one specific threat to be excited about, but I see tons of signs that we at least have chances coming over the next few weeks. This time of the season, if you can maintain near or slightly below average temps, magic can happen. Doesn't have to be 10 days of 20 below average deviations.

The NAO and AO are looking to be favorable, and the EPO and WPO are finally getting more favorable.

The one thing I don't like is losing the +PNA, but it is what it is.

Matt, you can correct me if I'm wrong but I swear I remember PDII happening in a very similar pattern. 

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