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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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Still not convinced Monday/Tuesday event moves through the Tenn. valley.  It certainly could, we'll see.  Regardless, there will be other opportunities ahead.  Only wished we had more cold on our side of the hemisphere.

GSP AFD:  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

GFS 06: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

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2 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Still not convinced Monday/Tuesday event moves through the Tenn. valley.  It certainly could, we'll see.  Regardless, there will be other opportunities ahead.  Only wished we had more cold on our side of the hemisphere.

GSP AFD:  https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

GFS 06: https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area#

I agree with you and the 12z GFS just essentially lost the system at the surface. The combination of just too many pieces of energy flying around and the northern stream confluence is causing these models to struggle immensely. 

But the cold just is not there for us to tap into

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NAM finally in range for Monday's system (take with a grain of salt because it is the long range NAM). GFS is still much flatter with the h5 vort with little northern stream interaction. 

LA/TN/MS/AL could score in the morning hours (if the NAM is correct) but that warm air advection ahead of the surface low + daytime heating is going to be a killer combo for the piedmont with no good source of cold air.

Still time with this one though 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

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1 hour ago, Alfoman said:

NAM finally in range for Monday's system (take with a grain of salt because it is the long range NAM). GFS is still much flatter with the h5 vort with little northern stream interaction. 

LA/TN/MS/AL could score in the morning hours (if the NAM is correct) but that warm air advection ahead of the surface low + daytime heating is going to be a killer combo for the piedmont with no good source of cold air.

Still time with this one though 

namconus_ref_frzn_us_52.png

Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff.

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5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff.

If that high stays to our north and doesn’t slide to leave a weakness, that low pressure will not plow into it. I haven’t had any time to take a close look at it to see what’s going on, so if anyone else has a chance I’d love to hear the rundown B)

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6 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Man that looks rock solid for us. Snow down to middle MS and AL, just right there, and a high in PA. How does that not track east and get us? This is crazy stuff.

That does look awfully  good for my backyard.  Too bad it’ll change by tonight!!

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