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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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6 hours ago, griteater said:

Impressive look developing at the end on the EPS Mean here with heavy west based -NAO via Davis Strait ridging and deep blues off the Canadian Maritimes / and removal of Gulf of Alaska Low (Jan 12-19)

z8UGhSk.gif

That's what I've been waiting for! Remove the Atlantic ridging and replace it with lower heights. Open the door for the cold to move freely into the south east. Toward that later period I hope we score. 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Some reason the 2nd system is getting sheared out and weakening on the models as it rounds the bend. Confluence too strong?

Yeah, there is a northern stream wave moving down thru the Great Lakes that is dropping down right on top and just ahead of the southern wave....so, that is shearing it out a bit, but also keeping in suppressed

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know posting long range snow maps is a lesson in futility but this highlights the upcoming potential to have multiple storms through the period. Looks to be an exciting couple of weeks ahead 

 

All good. Guidance is looking nice as we head into the heart of winter. 

 

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17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

In terms of "potential" I am much more excited and anticipatory on the 12z suite for the *Monday event* rather than the *Friday event* , much higher ceiling for a much larger swath of people.

Yeah, anything I get on Friday I consider a bonus. Sometimes scraping out 2-3" from an event like that can transition a winter from good to great so fingers crossed. Would you think if we do get 2-3" down and keep it around until Sunday, it helps us on Monday?

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35 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Yeah, anything I get on Friday I consider a bonus. Sometimes scraping out 2-3" from an event like that can transition a winter from good to great so fingers crossed. Would you think if we do get 2-3" down and keep it around until Sunday, it helps us on Monday?

Anything helps - whether it's snow here that helps depress the surface temps some, or snow in S VA to keep the upstream airmass fresher for us, anything helps. 

Regular ol GFS showed the potential really nicely- play your cards right and you get a legit, bona fide Miller A here. 

Really excited to see what the Euro and it's ensembles show... If it shows a similar set up to the GFS this board is going to have an aneurism. I think suppression is still obviously on the table, there's a lot of shortwaves flying around and it wouldn't take much to smush this. 

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1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:

Anything helps - whether it's snow here that helps depress the surface temps some, or snow in S VA to keep the upstream airmass fresher for us, anything helps. 

Regular ol GFS showed the potential really nicely- play your cards right and you get a legit, bona fide Miller A here. 

Really excited to see what the Euro and it's ensembles show... If it shows a similar set up to the GFS this board is going to have an aneurism. I think suppression is still obviously on the table, there's a lot of shortwaves flying around and it wouldn't take much to smush this. 

Here's to hoping. Round two is building in Texas at 126. Snowing in Austin and San Antonio, which is subobtimal given their elevated freeways. 

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