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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.


AMZ8990
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1 hour ago, Olhausen said:

Basically saying nothing but a few snow showers mixed with rain for here. Obviously the better call with model differences. But man if the gfs is correct it’s going catch a lot folks off guard in middle Tennessee 

 

It didn't back down at 0z. It's either going to have a wacky coup or be hilariously wrong this close to the event. 

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The HRRR thinks the temps are going to nose up into the low to mid 50s in the central and even northern, Eastern Valley. If it's right about that, then we will have a problem. I just can't see enough cold catching up to the moisture as it swings through in the evening after peak heating is insulated by the clouds. I'm not happy about it, but it is what it is, if the HRRR is right. 

 

3km NAM keeps a little more cold over SW VA. I think we'll probably have a better sense of what happens by 2 PM. Most models have the 850 low moving across the souther plateau or rounding the base of the Apps by then and we should be able to see what damage any SW flow/ insolation (even with clouds) has done. 

 

I'm interested in the potential for an anafront/ wave riding a front in the Feb 6-8 time frame. Most models are showing some potential for that after the big front swings through on the 4/5th. 

 

Ensembles still seem to think NA will finally get some of that nice cold Siberian air to work with....eventually. Whenever that happens, I think is our best board wide chance. We've had sooooo many marginal, wishy washy events, if we could just get some decent arctic air injected into or building in North America, it would help so much. Looks like some version of the NAO is going to hang around, but without arctic air to work with, it seems like we end up with gray, cool, and damp weather and days like yesterday seem miraculously warm. So hopefully we get some arctic air for that NAO to block, instead of just a storm track. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And if the sun actually comes out and we get even a couple of hours of daytime heating.... that is def. not good. there is some clearing in West TN

Jnosf9i.png

Yeah this one may be a lost cause. Temps in the 50s just a couple hrs before it’s supposed to snow never sounds fun.  Sounds like cold chasing moisture to me.  

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     Suns breaking thru here with about 55% Cloudcover. Current Temp. of 42.  Lt. East wind. Hopefully,  clouds fill back in soon but, not liking setup with this one. Timing hurts us .

     As far as HRRR and couple other SR Model's,  they've performed rather poor here with a couple of the events this season , having had us getting under an inch right up to the event.  Basically the entire County got 3-6".

       Of course, there's a reason for that I won't go n2 now and only pertains to this general area.

 

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The LR doesn't look half bad on multiple operational and ensemble runs.  We will see how the pattern develops after the 5th.  The 18z GEFS, after pushing the idea of a western tough, is not so much anymore.  We will likely have a strong cold front around the 5/6th depending on our location in the forum area.  After that is the topic of great discussion.  Strong amplifications during February can be interesting.  

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CMC and Euro are starting to dump the trough in the west, after the the big front on the 5 - 6. The GFS is keeping it more towards the center of the US or east (as John has above). 

I'm glad that its long range, so it could change, but I would rather see the GFS have some back up. The 12z Euro yesterday was more like the GFS at 240, so it could swing back. 

CMC and Euro have the dreaded flood look:

gem_uv250_namer_41.png

 

v4bmZzh.png

 

 

GFS

gfs_uv250_namer_65.png

 

 

Para GFS splits the difference and tries to dump the trough back in the west, but it almost gets strongarmed east by a STJ streak:

giphy.gif

 

Some of the CMC and EPS members apparently see the trough making it east too, given that some (maybe a 1/4) see some snowfall after the big front on the 5th or 6th. 

 

GEFS is also trying to dump the trough back out west, but, like the CMC ensembles, it eventually pulls it east:

giphy.gif.   

 Good to see all models agree that there is the opportunity for some cross polar flow with arctic ridging. 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

CMC and Euro are starting to dump the trough in the west, after the the big front on the 5 - 6. The GFS is keeping it more towards the center of the US or east (as John has above). 

I'm glad that its long range, so it could change, but I would rather see the GFS have some back up. The 12z Euro yesterday was more like the GFS at 240, so it could swing back. 

CMC and Euro have the dreaded flood look:

gem_uv250_namer_41.png

 

v4bmZzh.png

 

 

GFS

gfs_uv250_namer_65.png

 

 

Para GFS splits the difference and tries to dump the trough back in the west, but it almost gets strongarmed east by a STJ streak:

giphy.gif

 

Some of the CMC and EPS members apparently see the trough making it east too, given that some (maybe a 1/4) see some snowfall after the big front on the 5th or 6th. 

 

GEFS is also trying to dump the trough back out west, but, like the CMC ensembles, it eventually pulls it east:

giphy.gif.   

 Good to see all models agree that there is the opportunity for some cross polar flow with arctic ridging. 

 

 

 

 

With persistent blocking, we're gonna have to keep eye on MJO. Models struggling due to it and Niña state affects on pattern I believe. 

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10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

With persistent blocking, we're gonna have to keep eye on MJO. Models struggling due to it and Niña state affects on pattern I believe. 

Masiello was talking about some AAM being injected poleward, so that would support that. But it is Masiello, so he could have been trying to say anything. I'm just glad to see big highs in play in Canada. I feel like we haven't seen that at all this year. 

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Euro Weeklies say winter is not over.  Initial cold push around the 5th.  About 6 days later the trough returns and slams the door on spring.  As Boone notes, if the Euro is holding back a bit in the West, the entire trough could come east around the 5th and settles into a full latitude trough.  Nice look.  Let's reel it in.  Basically the message is more cold than warm, but some warm still embedded after the 5th.  Implies a late spring.

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RGEM drops the remnant upper low for the weekend system over E KY/ SW VA and NE TN, which helps generate some more snow showers, than if the NAM is right (drops it in further NE)

giphy.gif

 

giphy.gif

 

I feel like this is one of those situations where the RGEM does better than the NAM, but exactly where vorticity lobes go, even a few days out, is anyone's guess. 

 

Euro leans toward the RGEM:

giphy.gif

 

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