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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.


AMZ8990
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1. Late week snow looks like a Plateau to Northeast Tennessee special, with the Mountains too, most of it post frontal. Of course that is a non-starter southern Tenn. 

2. Per satellite, MJO is trying to nudge into colder phase 7, but it's a fine line because phase 6 becomes less cold late January and mild in February. Then some EPS members trying to go phase 8 by Day 14, which would firmly settle the issue - huge iff there at the end of the forecast period.

3. Atlantic side blocking and occasional Scandinavia ridging continues, delivering cold to Europe. Alaska ridge is still AWOL for at least 10 days with a trough West. Some ensembles hint at the trough moving east toward Day 14, replaced with AN heights West. That's the unreliable end of the forecast though.

4. Still had that strato warming about a month ago now. Statistical correlation is highest Europe, second highest Asia, and actually pretty low North America. However NA can get a delayed reaction, causation is debatable though in a blocky environment anyway.

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Long way out for the hi-res but the rgem was really looking good for many of us.  At 84 it's popped a low that is over Asheville.  Snowing eastern rim, plateau and NE areas. Kentucky is getting thumped. Probably would have been 1-3 north of 40 with higher lollipops and 4-8 in Eastern KY had it went to 90 or 96. 

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24 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Long way out for the hi-res but the rgem was really looking good for many of us.  At 84 it's popped a low that is over Asheville.  Snowing eastern rim, plateau and NE areas. Kentucky is getting thumped. Probably would have been 1-3 north of 40 with higher lollipops and 4-8 in Eastern KY had it went to 90 or 96. 

That's our money Model buddy ! Hopefully, it'll continue it's hot streak.

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56 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

That's our money Model buddy ! Hopefully, it'll continue it's hot streak.

It's way out in It's range but several models are looking better and better north of 40 from west Tennessee to NE TN. 

I'd like to see the European bite but I think it was a late biter for the Christmas event too. 

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16 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's way out in It's range but several models are looking better and better north of 40 from west Tennessee to NE TN. 

I'd like to see the European bite but I think it was a late biter for the Christmas event too. 

Yeah, always a little nervous when the Euro is not "in". I believe ur right on it being the Christmas Eve event it had trouble with. Could be there's a bit of a weakness with it regarding anafrontal precip...

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

18z GFSV16 finally ran. Good run for many of us except as Jeff pointed out, the Chattanooga area.  The waves like the anafrontal Christmas event very evident again. 

 

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

Is that due to some sort of deformation band coming through?  I remember the same type of output from the Christmas event.

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2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Only problem I have with the RGEM/CMC combo is that it has been a hair too cold IMBY which is causing it to overestimate snowfall here - matters especially when changeover times matter.

It has been the most accurate in Lee County and from what I gather, along the Cumberland range. 

     The others run a bit warm for here.

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Just to re-iterate what we have been saying for several days, the 12z EPS and GEPS are still advertising a strong trough amplification in the East around Feb5th.  As noted, the changes which force the trough eastward on those models are now almost at d10 with the trough following soon after.  The 12z EPS is stronger and very slightly faster (w just a quick glance).  Euro Weeklies look like periodic shots of cold throughout February.  It is worth noting that the 12z GEFS remains steadfast in its depiction of an eastern ridge.  At this point the MJO has a strong say in what happens downstream and obviously the GEFS and EPS are much different with their indices in the mid to late range.  

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Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I still is my favorite for sure.

Hopefully, it'll be right . Euro's really not that far off. I think it still has a bit of warm bias so, who knows. May be reason of its Christmas Eve failure of sorts or could be it has a weakness with anafrontal situations or that was just a fluke by it.

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Think it is going to be a month where troughs move east, lift out, reload, and happens again.  The SER will slip in between those troughs at times.  At this point, that is just a timing issue.  I don't think I have seen a single person calling for sustained cold, but....this is a pattern which could produce as nearly every cold shot has produced frozen precip this winter in this forum area.

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