Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Insult to injury there Jax. After what was looking like a sustained cold possibly snowy stretch to a not so great pattern advertised. Then that. Severe this time of year is not most in here's cup of Tea. Hopefully, it's wrong like the December outlook was for a warm possibly stormy period around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 0z runs are enough to be interesting. Kentucky gets slammed by the GGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 29 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 0z runs are enough to be interesting. Kentucky gets slammed by the GGEM. Yeah. May trend a bit more south. HP Press. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFSv16 was a bit more south and colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 West and Middle tn special on GFS, it's only 378 hours out!!!! Reel it in!!!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, snowmaker said: West and Middle tn special on GFS, it's only 378 hours out!!!! Reel it in!!!!! Certainly wont have a drought soon if its right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 06z GFS was better for Kentucky. Our SE Ky guys would have a nice event if it were to verify. Northern Plateau totals were up a bit too. The V16 wasn't as big a run as 12z but it wasn't bad. Far eastern areas get a good shot on both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I think a system between the Feb 4 and 7 ends up being Jax's squall line and we finally get to apply the thunder in the mts rule. 6z GFS suggests that a flex of the -NAO could keep those suppressed, but the Euro Control still amplifies them. Still looks like a big anticyclone gets broken off in the N. Pac and rolls back towards Siberia, dislodging some cold. 6z GFS offers a glimpse at how that could turn out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Again, I think we potentially may see a major trough amplification around or just after the 5th. The 0z GEPS has a monster EPO ridge moving forward in time on its 0z run. If the air in front of that sharp trough is warm enough, could be fireworks for sure. The 0z EPS is not far behind but its Pacific ridge is displaced further west. As Webber noted the other day, there is a super fine line between torch and major league cold. Modeling is now moving up in time that Feb 5th timeframe. This is the first winter in a while where I don't remember tracking at least some severe wx, so a big amplifying trough with warm air in front is definitely a good recipe. Almost has a "flooding and then snow" look. Again, I look for the coldest air to go into the front range of the Rockies and surge eastward 2-3 times in February. Only concern would be a repeat of November.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Two thoughts... 1. I think NE TN, SW VA, and SE KY are going to have to keep an eye on the system just after 100. The 6z GFS and 0z CMC both pop a lee side low or inland runner after energy transfer up the Piedmont/Coastal Plain. Now, I am not a huge fan of energy transfer, but if the energy transfer were to occur far enough to the southeast, one could see rain changing to snow in the aforementioned areas. Bit of a long shot but it has been my experience that these types of handoffs tend to run a snow axis from Bristol to DC. 2. MJO. Some modeling stalls the MJO around 6-7. However, wanted to share a couple from this morning (ECMWF and CA-LLR) which actually move the MJO along. Some MJO modeling actually produces another wave off of Eastern Africa and rolls it eastward. If that happens, that means the MJO rolls through phases 1, 2, and 3. You can see on the CHI map that very wave beginning just after d5. ECMWF(notice it head towards 8) CLA is about perfect... CHI Propagation Map from yesterday as today is not updated for this yet(look specifically for the way around Africa move to the central IO....that is MJO 1-3 which is cold for JFM) That is one window for potential cold. It is on modeling and there seems to be some moderate agreement among MJO modeling. FTR, I think the MJO is now driving the boat in terms of temps. The -NAO seems to be driving the storm track. So, the 0z GEPS and 6z DFSv2, which pop significant EPO ridges are showing the cold potential(as opposed to the very real warm potential scenario) for just after the 5th. Could it be a mirage? Sure, but I don't need to provide all of the caveats. The above is a great example of why modeling is struggling. I tend to think we see the cold move East...so I am tentatively rolling with cold pushing East around the 5th(likely gets pushed back a few days as cold often can), but that is my current thinking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 12z Euro is very close for portions of NE TN. The WxBell snow graphics actually have all snow(with little accums) for Sullivan and Washington Co's and NE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Really it is almost a slider for the length of the TN/KY border - 12z Euro is much colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Again, I think we potentially may see a major trough amplification around or just after the 5th. The 0z GEPS has a monster EPO ridge moving forward in time on its 0z run. If the air in front of that sharp trough is warm enough, could be fireworks for sure. The 0z EPS is not far behind but its Pacific ridge is displaced further west. As Webber noted the other day, there is a super fine line between torch and major league cold. Modeling is now moving up in time that Feb 5th timeframe. This is the first winter in a while where I don't remember tracking at least some severe wx, so a big amplifying trough with warm air in front is definitely a good recipe. Almost has a "flooding and then snow" look. Again, I look for the coldest air to go into the front range of the Rockies and surge eastward 2-3 times in February. Only concern would be a repeat of November.... Hopefully blocking will be persistent and be prevalent thereby preventing a Nov. repeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Crappie Pac,teles shows a +ve NAO,-ve PNA even with a diving-AO,these are not signs of any cold pattern for us least past into week 1 of Feb and probably beyond if the MJO sticks into the Pac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Head to salt mountain with this, but the GFSV16 gets the west valley in the game. I believe this will be the main GFS in February. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Canadian shifted the blues (1+ inch) about two counties south. Light snow nearly statewide on it. Decent event for southern KY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 What trend do we need to get us more in the game with this storm. I have been watching the carolina folks looking at this one for days. Seems to be trending better now for ky and tn. Hope it continues now that we are getting closer in the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z UKMET on Pivotal was interesting re: snow accumulation trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Let's continue that shift another 50 miles South. Even taken verbatim, they May be doing the same as they did with a couple systems this season in undergoing amounts in the upper northern great Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, snowmaker said: What trend do we need to get us more in the game with this storm. I have been watching the carolina folks looking at this one for days. Seems to be trending better now for ky and tn. Hope it continues now that we are getting closer in the timeframe. South. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowmaker said: What trend do we need to get us more in the game with this storm. I have been watching the carolina folks looking at this one for days. Seems to be trending better now for ky and tn. Hope it continues now that we are getting closer in the timeframe. A low track further south with better HP overhead. The models have slowly been shifting south with it. They were cutting it straight to a block then transferring it at one point. That's what got NC in the big snow window. Still transferring but the low isn't transferring from WVA now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 0z UKMET on Pivotal was interesting re: snow accumulation trends. It's similar to runs of the GFSV16 from earlier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 06z GFS looks a little like 0z GFSV16, with NW Tennessee getting in the game and an overall south shift. The 06 GFSV16 looks really good north of 40 across the area. Plateau and west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Here is the Ukie in all its blue pixelated glory for some areas: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 I’m heading up to Des Moines Iowa today for work guys, winter storm warning tomorrow in that area too. Calling for 8-12 inches, I’ll send you guys some pics if the storm pans out! I Hope the forum can score a storm or two while I’m gone! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro is all snow for the Thursday system some parts of SW VA and elevations above...I'd say...4000 feet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Its heading toward an everyone vs the Euro situation now. Should be in the long range of the short range models soon. The GFS had those weird snow strips that came with an earlier system this season. Maybe the Christmas one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 EPO ridge on the 12z GEPS is just nuts. The 12z EPS which is running is not far from that solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The d10-15 5 day mean for the GEPS is just sick in regards to the EPO. Wow - reaches to the Arctic Circle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z EPS is snow also showing a similar strong amplification around the same time frame - Feb 5/6(we can use that time as a benchmark). Been moving up in time fairly consistently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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