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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.


AMZ8990
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WRT the MJO. I decided to look at the convection since its been a week or so and this is def. not a good place for it.

giphy.gif

 

If that is a coherent wave and that is where it is now though, it could evolve to the east, which would put it in a more favorable region, baring any interference by TCs or other nasties. 

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2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yet again Masiello has said just enough for me to think I know what he means, but not quite sure, lol...

The replies he has to "Vital Sine" below that are the part I'm talking about.

The idea of a SSW event cooling the tropopause at the tropics has been discussed before. If he's right (and I'm reading this correctly) it seems like he expects a coherent MJO signal to move into more favorable areas in the Western Pac. 

Great catch, man.  Glad you shared that.  From this AM, the CA OLR maps (which have been wrong before) show the precip propagating into 7/8.  Seeing some hints of the pattern on the CFSv2 showing the EPO return on the 12z run today.   The GEFS OLR is hinting at that move - at least showing the IO become less.  That would fit what we are seeing past d10+.  

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Not overly fond of model trends during the past 12 hours regarding the LR.  That said, the CA OLR and GEFS OLR which we can use to predict the MJO are again strongly hinting that the MJO is about to propagate into 7 and likely 8.  That would mean that help from the Pacific would possibly occur between d10-20.  Let's see if modeling, especially the GEFS begins to correct to that.  If true, that would open the doors to very cold air in the eastern US.  Not saying that happens as the MJO could get stuck in 7 and the cold get bottled up in the Canadian front range....but something to think about.

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4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Alright ye NAO folks, here we go:

giphy.gif

 

let's see what it can do.....

I was thinking of the possibility of the NAO SE Ridge linkage yesterday and thought about bringing that up here but, didn't want to discourage as I'm trying to stay positive with this Winters better outcome.

      When that big cold blob began dropping into the west on models, the possibility of that linkage I knew existed . Especially with the Rather South displaced and strength of the - NAO.  That ups the chances of a linkage, imo. As or IF that trough deepens in the West, of which will seesaw and pop a SE Ridge,  at least of sorts. 

     A 50-50 Low should/could help or instigate a gap in that linkage  and possible allow for a cold country as a whole, ala ., Jan-Feb. 1979. Of course, we're in a different Climate era now so...

       Another worry is the La Niña assisting that Western Trough ; embedding it. As Carvers noted, the MJO may help us out this time, for a change. It owes us ! Lol.

 

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The linkage from the NAO to the SE has been shown nearly the entire first half of winter and has rarely verified.  So, I have my doubts at to how persistent that will be, but glad it was mentioned.  I have been watching if for several runs.  Could it last for weeks on end?  Sure, but I have doubts about that.  We have talked about the SER/NAO link off-and-on at times so far.  Just looking at the 12z EPS, looks to me like the trough will retrograde through the west and eventually form a GOA low - which is not great but no a deal killer.  I still think modeling is really struggling with the NAO which simply seems to have no intention of going away - yet.  As I noted in late December, we are entering a time of great uncertainty - and still are.  

My guess?  The trough retrogrades slowly, a PNA pops, and back in business by the second week of Feb.  So, cold shot Jan 25-30th, one week ridge, and back to a trough by the second week of Feb.  The CFSv2 has handled that really well.   Keep an eye on the MJO.  I have often wondered if the NAO could bridge us to a better Pacific.  It may be doing just that.  If you watch the 12z GFS, the eastern ridge amplifies and retrogrades west with each amplification - to the point it is in the eastern Pacific by d13+.  

Add in that LR modeling is all over the place right now...going to take a wild guess that another SSW is under way or about to be.

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I have been watching winter weather patterns for decades. One immutable truth is that, with a few exceptions here and there (December '89 to the rest of winter was the king of all exceptions) persistence is the best tell of long range forecasting. Despite the back and forth, wild model swings, SSWs, vortex splits and so forth, when this winter's history is written....my bet is the real cold stays in Asia....and we in the eastern US will remain, by and large stuck in a meh pattern. The one thing that keeps me going is the law of averages. Most have had 3 lousy winters in a row. We are due a reshuffle next winter. Hope I'm wrong about the rest of the season...but highly doubt if any of us who love snow and cold will see much this winter. Carry on! Do love your analysis though...keep posting. Hope springs eternal.

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23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The linkage from the NAO to the SE has been shown nearly the entire first half of winter and has rarely verified.  So, I have my doubts at to how persistent that will be, but glad it was mentioned.  I have been watching if for several runs.  Could it last for weeks on end?  Sure, but I have doubts about that.  We have talked about the SER/NAO link off-and-on at times so far.  Just looking at the 12z EPS, looks to me like the trough will retrograde through the west and eventually form a GOA low - which is not great but no a deal killer.  I still think modeling is really struggling with the NAO which simply seems to have no intention of going away - yet.  As I noted in late December, we are entering a time of great uncertainty - and still are.  

My guess?  The trough retrogrades slowly, a PNA pops, and back in business by the second week of Feb.  So, cold shot Jan 25-30th, one week ridge, and back to a trough by the second week of Feb.  The CFSv2 has handled that really well.   Keep an eye on the MJO.  I have often wondered if the NAO could bridge us to a better Pacific.  It may be doing just that.  If you watch the 12z GFS, the eastern ridge amplifies and retrogrades west with each amplification - to the point it is in the eastern Pacific by d13+.  

Add in that LR modeling is all over the place right now...going to take a wild guess that another SSW is under way or about to be.

Good post as usual Carvers. I've been mulling over this all day and thinking about the same thing regarding how models have done that this Winter only to fail. Hopefully, still the case. December Christmas warmth predicted by models early on I believe was a similar projected linkage if which we all know how that turned out.

         

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The 12z EPS control shows the quick way to get to a monster EPO/PNA ridge around d11.  Not saying that happens, but if the MJO can swing into 8 while the NAO persists...that is the outcome.   Just don't think modeling has this worked out yet - some great options on the table and some "get your garden" ready options as well.

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And I will add, this winter was supposed to be a huge nothing burger.  It was forecast by many to be wall-to-wall torch.  I think we have 4 winter threads so far, including a Christmas Eve storm(the Holy Grail of storm tracking) which was nailed at range.  And certainly this has not been great for everyone, and I have no control over that. However, that does not mean this winter is a fail by any means in some areas.  The mountain behind my house has had snow on it since Christmas on most days - it is only 2,400'.   The NAO has saved us from much AN temps.  It is very important to remember that the Nina is fading.  So it is important to think about what modeling is juggling right now:  fading Nina, yet another SSW, and an unexpected NAO - not to mention analog packages are few.  I think the pattern which has persisted much of winter is periodic, seasonal cold that has brought snow chances with each surge of cold.  But make no mistake, modeling is bouncing around right now.  HOWEVER, modeling has generally gotten the overall progression(or should I say retrogression?) of the January pattern overall.  I should add that the 12z CFSv2 supports the 12z Euro control.   I am not confident that anything past d10 is accurate at this point, but I do think the West is about to get their share of winter.

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53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And I will add, this winter was supposed to be a huge nothing burger.  It was forecast by many to be wall-to-wall torch.  I think we have 4 winter threads so far, including a Christmas Eve storm(the Holy Grail of storm tracking) which was nailed at range.  And certainly this has not been great for everyone, and I have no control over that. However, that does not mean this winter is a fail by any means in some areas.  The mountain behind my house has had snow on it since Christmas on most days - it is only 2,400'.   The NAO has saved us from much AN temps.  It is very important to remember that the Nina is fading.  So it is important to think about what modeling is juggling right now:  fading Nina, yet another SSW, and an unexpected NAO - not to mention analog packages are few.  I think the pattern which has persisted much of winter is periodic, seasonal cold that has brought snow chances with each surge of cold.  But make no mistake, modeling is bouncing around right now.  HOWEVER, modeling has generally gotten the overall progression(or should I say retrogression?) of the January pattern overall.  I should add that the 12z CFSv2 supports the 12z Euro control.   I am not confident that anything past d10 is accurate at this point, but I do think the West is about to get their share of winter.

I know it's been worse for our mid-state and western posters with some painful misses. But still likely has been better for them than the past few winters where a flurry was hard to come by in January. 

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Yep, there have been things to track but it will be 3 disappointing years in a row if middle and west tn don't get a least 1 decent snow. I am into year 3 without having recorded even a quarter inch from 1 event. We have had to very light dustings this year. The last legit snow we had was the week in jan of 2018. Still holding out hope, but time is running and I am tired of the teasing and ready to see winter show up and show out!

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Just now, snowmaker said:

Yep, there have been things to track but it will be 3 disappointing years in a row if middle and west tn don't get a least 1 decent snow. I am into year 3 without having recorded even a quarter inch from 1 event. We have had to very light dustings this year. The last legit snow we had was the week in jan of 2018. Still holding out hope, but time is running and I am tired of the teasing and ready to see winter show up and show out!

I never get shut out, but have had 2 of the worst years in about 90 years of records here in the last 3 winters too. I'm excited because I have a shot at getting to my average this year. I really hope you guys can get a nice event. I always look back at the frequency of heavy snow events over the entire forum and they aren't uncommon in Middle Tennessee or East Tennessee, they are less common in West but still used to happen. It's been a long while since there was a widespread 12+ inch event in the eastern areas and even though Northern Middle had one in 2016, the rest of the midstate hasn't seen one in a long time either.

My last 12+ single event was 2010. My last 15+ was 1998. Both those types of events used to happen far more frequently. I'm not sure why they've stopped. We still get plenty of juice and we've still been downright frigid in the 2010-2020 timeframe. You'd think we'd have lucked into one.

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Saw a similar head fake when we saw truly cold air enter NA during November.  Lots of solutions between d10-15 showed remarkable cold going into the East...only to have it dump West.  November patterns have a real tendency to show back-up during winter(though the previous winters' Novembers did not comply with that rule).  Looks very much like that will occur again.  Still think the MJO look on OLR maps looks good for the LR re: our area.  You can see on the 18z GFS the easy late in the run(and not taken as verbatim but just an example) at which the trough repositions itself at 500 across the eastern US when that trough in the West retrogrades just enough off the West Coast(talked about that earlier today).

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Yeah, TN fans haven't been looking at squat regarding modeling today!  LOL.  Came over to post what John just did....I wasn't overly displeased with either the Euro OP, the EPS, nor the Weeklies.  The Weeklies controls run was pretty awesome in terms of 500.  Haven't looked at a map all day.  You think a SER is bad...TN football says hold my beer.

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Some of the convection in the Maritime continent is starting to percolate eastward, closer to 150 than 120 east:

giphy.gif

 

Maybe the models will start to look up even more soon, if it cam make it between 150 and 180

Either way, it looks like it has weakened some. 

Here's where we were at a few weeks ago (not necessarily weaker, just further west):

giphy.gif

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The 0z GEPS has been advertising an EPO ridge(might be a hair too displayed westward),  but that feature greatly changes its LR look.   The 0z GEFS does not have this feature.  The 0z EPS kind of splits the difference between the two.  The EPS is not a warm run.  Though modeling kind of has one foot in and one foot out, I do think we move to what models had a week or so ago....strongest cold anomalies in the Mountain West and front range of the Canadian Rockies....and then extended occasionally to the western spin of the Apps (95-96 lite).  We are really just a weak PNA or EPO away from a very cold pattern.  TBD if that actually happens, but the EPS and GEPS are party of the way there.  I do surmise that we likely see a ridge roll through from time to time with that look.  Again,  think there are some inconsistent looks with the MJO paired with a -NAO.   Throw in the SSW and some shortening wavelengths, and modeling right now past 7 days can get a bit dicey.   As long as we have the -NAO and/or EPO(potential), there is a chance for confluence and storminess here.

As for spring, I know some analog packages call for a warmth.  Wouldn't surprise me to see it get very cold about the time we are ready for it to warm-up.  If the Nina hangs on, one would expect Cosgrove's flip to warmth at some point per his newsletter.

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Roundy's experimental projections haven't done too poorly this year:
giphy.gif&key=116e1b47f41200921c31aeefe6451fc9c5b42fe3622e01882d4fdcafbc696dae
 
If that pans out, it looks like we eventually settle back in to a much colder pattern with an EPO ridge and an eastern trough by mid - late Feb. 

We start losing climo and start gaining sun angle at that point.


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