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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.


AMZ8990
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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40. 

True, but it seems like all 3 models are kind a trending nw some. I agree the canadian has been the most steady, but it even seemed slightly more north the last run. No doubt there is still time for jogs either way but we are getting closer. I am just glad we got systems to watch.

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1 minute ago, snowmaker said:

True, but it seems like all 3 models are kind a trending nw some. I agree the canadian has been the most steady, but it even seemed slightly more north the last run. No doubt there is still time for jogs either way but we are getting closer. I am just glad we got systems to watch.

Well it was down towards the Yucatan a few runs ago, so definitely north!  With the blocking over the top there's generally a limit to how far north it's going to make it though. 

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I think some of the wishy-washy, waffly-doffly SE ridgeish looks at H5 we've been seeing in the 10 days+ range, may have to do with another Pac jet extension, triggered by a Siberian High descent and subsequent low formation in the pac (much smaller than the last one). 

High descent circled in black and low development circled in red:

giphy.gif

 

and here is what happens with the jet, notice that it gets stronger then weakens and gets more broken up:

giphy.gif

 

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8 hours ago, Tobiewx said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cI’ll take that any day in north Mississippi, the Euro just keeps inching that low north every run since last nights run.

My concern is, how much further north will she come

F606C4E0-3FD9-4243-B8BB-3B6C408F4777.png

Me and you both buddy.  The good thing is we are under 5 days for this system.  Definitely a strong signal on multiple models.  Thanks for sharing @John1122

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6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow..............  once you see it you can't unsee it.

 

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow..............  once you see it you can't unsee it.

As long as that finger stays over my county I’m happy.  Lol.  That is pretty funny now that u mention it too.  Haha

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6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The Canadian at 12z starts its accumulating snow in much the same place as the para 12z GFS, but hits the western and middle part of the state more.  Snow isn't heavy once you leave east Texas and western Louisiana, but a general 2-4 up through Memphis, Jackson,  and 1-2" in northern middle Tennessee.

The Canadian has been pretty consistent with that storm signal the past few runs.  I’ll be interested to see what the 12z Euro does with that energy today

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.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of rain and snow is expected Sunday night, Monday
into Monday night with the highest chance of precipitation over
North Mississippi. Any snow Sunday night will likely change over
to rain Monday, then back to snow Monday night. No accumulation is
expected. Elevated roadways could become slick late Monday night
into early Tuesday.

 

 

 

NWS Memphis is mentioning the Sunday through Tuesday threat in their hazardous weather outlook.  

 

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25 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of rain and snow is expected Sunday night, Monday
into Monday night with the highest chance of precipitation over
North Mississippi. Any snow Sunday night will likely change over
to rain Monday, then back to snow Monday night. No accumulation is
expected. Elevated roadways could become slick late Monday night
into early Tuesday.

 

 

 

NWS Memphis is mentioning the Sunday through Tuesday threat in their hazardous weather outlook.  

 

They been burnt to many times, so they will approach this with caution, can’t blame them, at one time the mid south had no problem with these but as of late these things can change at last minute.

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The euro took the second wave further to the south this time. I am kind of glad it took the jog south instead of going nw even more. These things often tend to take a nw turn leading up to the event. I think we still have a shot with this second wave in west and middle tn, still plenty of time for a shift or a trend in any direction. But still being out 4-5 days I would still rather have it to the south of me versus north overall.

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There's still a decent shot some of us see some wintry weather with wave 2, and to me this is all bonus stuff. The truly wintry pattern resulting from the SSW should start being felt mid-month and beyond. MRX has this delightful sentence to end their AFD this morning.

 

Quote

For the very end of the period, confidence continues to increase for deep troughing
in the eastern U.S., which will bring more chances for below normal
temperatures and the possibility of winter weather.

 

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5 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

How does the Euro show snow in Mississippi and then it turns to rain in TN?

Because it's the "Valley Warm Nose" effect.  Probably....don't know for sure.  Haven't looked at models.  Feeling slightly jaded after getting nothing in this last round.

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10 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

How does the Euro show snow in Mississippi and then it turns to rain in TN?

500mb level looks like a mess.  the vort is shearing out and the time of day is the worst possible arrival (afternoon) for what light precip makes it up this way.  All modeling shows 500 going to crap, so I'd set expectations low and if you see a light snow event consider yourself lucky!  Just my two cents.

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