Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 So, it pays to look at the surface. We don't live at 500. The GEPS and GEFS, which look decidedly less inviting at 12z at 500, are still quite cold at the surface as the feed from the Plains is undercutting any SE ridge at 500. So, I may have spoke a hair to soon. I do think the trough will retrograde west. Almost all Weeklies stuff is showing that and that look is around 300 hours on ensembles. That said, IF the trough sets up shop over Montana...we could still see cold air bleed eastward to the Apps. INDEED, verbatim that is a great pattern for middle and west TN. MJO is not a good look though...that hasn't changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: So, it pays to look at the surface. We don't live at 500. The GEPS and GEFS, which look decidedly less inviting at 12z at 500, are still quite cold at the surface as the feed from the Plains is undercutting any SE ridge at 500. So, I may have spoke a hair to soon. I do think the trough will retrograde west. Almost all Weeklies stuff is showing that and that look is around 300 hours on ensembles. That said, IF the trough sets up shop over Montana...we could still see cold air bleed eastward to the Apps. INDEED, verbatim that is a great pattern for middle and west TN. MJO is not a good look though...that hasn't changed. I am hoping the ssw and the -nao can offset the mjo somewhat in this situation. Heck I can't keep up with MJO it seems to be a never ending chase as to what it is doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Euro has a nice phase for plateau east, but precip maps look skimpy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 If that were to be how it worked out, would expect some deep Gulf moisture getting thrown back towards the mountains from SWVA NEward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Euro has a nice phase for plateau east, but precip maps look skimpy: Yep, it somehow managed to throw a inch up around the clarksville area in nw middle and other spotty areas in middle tn before getting it's act together on the plateau and east tn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, snowmaker said: I am hoping the ssw and the -nao can offset the mjo somewhat in this situation. Heck I can't keep up with MJO it seems to be a never ending chase as to what it is doing. Been pretty much COD all winter with some slight moves into 4/5. Looks a little more active. Probably going to see a pretty good fight in modeling where the trough is going to want to retrograde as the western ridge retrogrades into the Aleutians. Best we can hope for with that outcome is for part of the PV to drop into the Plains and spread eastward(saw that on the MA...not my material there...maybe snow goose?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Pretty massive change on the 12z Euro as Holston mentioned - massive. SLP jogged about 200 mi west on that run. One more jog, and that gets a lot of people involved. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 12z Euro went from no snowstorm for the second storm to basically a huge snowstorm from NE TN to past DC. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, snowmaker said: Yep, it somehow managed to throw a inch up around the clarksville area in nw middle and other spotty areas in middle tn before getting it's act together on the plateau and east tn. It goes neutral over the MS River, you'd think it would get more precip. toward middle TN: It could see something cutting off RH in the mid levels. Sure enough (sorry as I was typing this I though, ehhh, might as well look) The energy over Iowa pulls in some dry air. If that were to drop further south and interact with the southern energy more, I would think it would better for more areas in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It goes neutral over the MS River, you'd think it would get more precip. toward middle TN: It could see something cutting off RH in the mid levels. Sure enough (sorry as I was typing this I though, ehhh, might as well look) The energy over Iowa pulls in some dry air. If that were to drop further south and interact with the southern energy more, I would think it would better for more areas in TN. With one week out, still a long way to go...but IF the Euro has that at 0z that may only get stronger and back some westward with time. That is a big storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, snowmaker said: I am hoping the ssw and the -nao can offset the mjo somewhat in this situation. Heck I can't keep up with MJO it seems to be a never ending chase as to what it is doing. And thanks for throwing-in your input even though the pattern isn't great for your area. Always welcome! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Back to virtual school...reel int some of this, ya'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I am watching wave 2, at least it made a slightly favorable move at 12, hopefully it's the start of a trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, snowmaker said: I am watching wave 2, at least it made a slightly favorable move at 12, hopefully it's the start of a trend. Lots of moving pieces at 500 and no way to nail this down for several more days. One small piece of energy in the right or wrong place can make the difference between something minor or something much more widespread. I think the overall pattern strongly suggests opportunity as we head into next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Been pretty much COD all winter with some slight moves into 4/5. Looks a little more active. Probably going to see a pretty good fight in modeling where the trough is going to want to retrograde as the western ridge retrogrades into the Aleutians. Best we can hope for with that outcome is for part of the PV to drop into the Plains and spread eastward(saw that on the MA...not my material there...maybe snow goose?). If that ridge does retro to Aleutians that in and of itself in conjunction with the La niña is not good at all. Let alone MJO going n2 warm phases. If we maintain strong blocking however, it could offset the typical outcome of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: If that ridge does retro to Aleutians that in and of itself in conjunction with the La niña is not good at all. Let alone MJO going n2 warm phases. If we maintain strong blocking however, it could offset the typical outcome of course. I think we can hold the pattern through the 20th, maybe the 25, just based upon the 12z EPS. But eventually, the retrograding ridge into the West will allow ridging to belly underneath the eastern trough. My hope is on the -NAO holding on into early Feb before it fades quickly. Maybe(big maybe) we can survive the MJO orbit with the -NAO in place and then get it into 8, 1, 2 in early February as it fades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I think we can hold the pattern through the 20th, maybe the 25, just based upon the 12z EPS. But eventually, the retrograding ridge into the West will allow ridging to belly underneath the eastern trough. My hope is on the -NAO holding on into early Feb before it fades quickly. Maybe(big maybe) we can survive the MJO orbit with the -NAO in place and then get it into 8, 1, 2 in early February as it fades. Yeah, good points buddy. Those ideas sure would be the desired and optimal way for us to get through the retro ridge situation for sure! Also, strong enough blocking along with the southern flat ridge could produce some overrunning situations. Maybe some dreaded ice scenarios. Depending on which side of the boundary, could also produce flooding . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, good points buddy. Those ideas sure would be the desired and optimal way for us to get through the retro ridge situation for sure! Also, strong enough blocking along with the southern flat ridge could produce some overrunning situations. Maybe some dreaded ice scenarios. Depending on which side of the boundary, could also produce flooding . Yeah, I am pretty much half-a__ing it today in regards to posting. LOL -------> If I had watched the 12z GEPS finish running, I would have noted that it did eventually did double down in its cold. Just looking at the 500 pattern(no anomalies) that block is textbook and barely moving at all on the EPS. If anything it may attempt a full latitude trough in the lower 48. Been a while since we have seen a winter with one of those! So folks maybe need to take my posts with "low confidence" today - heck, maybe you do anyway. If so, you are wise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, I am pretty much half-a__ing it today in regards to posting. LOL -------> If I had watched the 12z GEPS finish running, I would have noted that it did eventually did double down in its cold. Just looking at the 500 pattern(no anomalies) that block is textbook and barely moving at all on the EPS. If anything it may attempt a full latitude trough in the lower 48. Been a while since we have seen a winter with one of those! So folks maybe need to take my posts with "low confidence" today - heck, maybe you do anyway. If so, you are wise. I actually venture over from the SE forum to see what you have to say. I think you are worth the read. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Accuweather article out today just bullish as all get for the pattern all the way into February. They say the good stuff won't even get rolling until basically after January 15th. Pretty good news that we have two potential snow events to track before the heart of winter arrives and according to them, the best pattern due to the split vortex. They harp on cold building into the Northern Rockies that shunts further east and south behind storms until it's all the way down into Northern Florida. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, John1122 said: Accuweather article out today just bullish as all get for the pattern all the way into February. They say the good stuff won't even get rolling until basically after January 15th. Pretty good news that we have two potential snow events to track before the heart of winter arrives and according to them, the best pattern due to the split vortex. They harp on cold building into the Northern Rockies that shunts further east and south behind storms until it's all the way down into Northern Florida. Webb had some stuff this AM about part of the TPV potentially heading south into the lower 48. Like Jeff said we just don't want it settling into the Rockies. With that said, when I was posting earlier, I didn't realize that the BN heights diving into the nation's mid-section were potentially the TPV. If that is the case, that changes the equation pretty significantly. I am not overly confident in a cold time frame after the 25th, but can definitely see the path to that point for sure if the TPV settles into southern Canada or the Lower 48 and slowly burns itself out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 After looking at the 18z GFS, I think I am just going to keep posting about how warm modeling looks after d13. That approach seems to be working for us this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Seriously...that is a very cold run and supports those who have been talking about the potential for extreme cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, I am pretty much half-a__ing it today in regards to posting. LOL -------> If I had watched the 12z GEPS finish running, I would have noted that it did eventually did double down in its cold. Just looking at the 500 pattern(no anomalies) that block is textbook and barely moving at all on the EPS. If anything it may attempt a full latitude trough in the lower 48. Been a while since we have seen a winter with one of those! So folks maybe need to take my posts with "low confidence" today - heck, maybe you do anyway. If so, you are wise. Tbh, I hadn't looked at them at all today either as feeling rough kept me from delving n2 them. So, just was getting the info from you guy's, of which is hard to beat. Great bunch we have here! A full latt. Trough was something that was prominent in the Winter of 78-79. Particularly January and February. Strong blocking was the impetus similar to what's being advertised now. The entire Nation was below average except for Maine and south Florida as I recall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Wave 2 is swimming on the Canadian and GFS. Spreading snow across West and Middle Tennessee at the end of it's run on the UKIE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Lets see what the euro does with wave 2 on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Euro was much more N/W than the GFS/Canadian for wave 2. 1-1.5 inches across West/Middle 2-3 Plateau, 1.1.5 Eastern valley. The Euro has a 3rd threat 2-3 days after wave 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Ukie is also N/W: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 12z Euro is looking really good at 500 with a healthy wave entering west Texas at hour 96. Not a lot showing at that time that would mess with it (i.e. crush it) as it swings east. Should produce a decent system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Surface responds between 96 and 108 with precip blossoming over Texas and the gulf coast, spawning a surface low in the northwest gulf. Snow breaking out in most of east Texas and western Louisiana at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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