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Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event


Brian D
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DVN update:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1227 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2021  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2021  
  
VERY TRICKY SITUATION WITH THIS FORECAST. MODEL ICE NUCLEATION HAD  
SUGGESTED MORE ICE IN THE COLUMN, AND THIS MORNING MANY OF THE  
AWOS SITES REPORTED SNOW WHEN IT WAS ACTUALLY FZRA. AS ADDITIONAL  
GROUND TRUTH CAME IN IT WAS EVIDENT THAT EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST  
WAS COLDER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THE EXISTENCE OF ICE WAS NOT THERE.  
AS A RESULT ICE TOTALS INCREASED IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING  
AREAS. REPORTS OF WARNING CRITERIA ICE IN THE WARNING HAVE BEEN  
RECEIVED AND UP TO .15 IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR DATA NOW  
SUGGESTS THE WARM LAYER IS COLLAPSING AND SNOW IS BEGINNING TO  
TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA. THE SNOW BAND HAS SETUP FURTHER NW  
AND AS A RESULT HAD TO ADD COUNTIES TO ADVISORY.  

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DVN update:   AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

1227 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2021  

   

UPDATE  

  

ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2021  

  

VERY TRICKY SITUATION WITH THIS FORECAST. MODEL ICE NUCLEATION HAD  

SUGGESTED MORE ICE IN THE COLUMN, AND THIS MORNING MANY OF THE  

AWOS SITES REPORTED SNOW WHEN IT WAS ACTUALLY FZRA. AS ADDITIONAL  

GROUND TRUTH CAME IN IT WAS EVIDENT THAT EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST  

WAS COLDER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THE EXISTENCE OF ICE WAS NOT THERE.  

AS A RESULT ICE TOTALS INCREASED IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING  

AREAS. REPORTS OF WARNING CRITERIA ICE IN THE WARNING HAVE BEEN  

RECEIVED AND UP TO .15 IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RADAR DATA NOW  

SUGGESTS THE WARM LAYER IS COLLAPSING AND SNOW IS BEGINNING TO  

TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA. THE SNOW BAND HAS SETUP FURTHER NW  

AND AS A RESULT HAD TO ADD COUNTIES TO ADVISORY.  

 

 

That was an error on their part from the start, in not having the WWA further NW. LOT had the same mistake in north having it far though N...and as did MKE.

 

The consensus of guidance consistently had WWA level precip that far north.

 

So for them to say the axis set up further north, is comical.

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Dry in Madison so far. Looks like we're riding the cutoff between about 1" and zilch.

I haven't been following this event too closely since it became clear it wouldn't be too sig for us, but this thread has taught me a lot about why significant ice storms always seem to either happen without warning or when one is forecast, it busts. There's a really narrow window of ideal temperature profiles and precip rates for efficient accretion of freezing rain.

There was one morning back in I believe the winter of 2013-'14 (one of our first winter precip events of the season, before it became legendary) where I woke up to, completely unexpectedly, find my car encased in about 1/2" of solid ice.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Come on Kankakee crew, we want some obs.

Everything encased in ice here. Started as some pretty heavy sleet this morning, then went to freezing rain about 8:30. Trees are creaking with every movement of the wind. Temp is 31˚ at mi casa currently. Actually got a real weather station now, lol.

Even with probably getting to or a bit above freezing this afternoon...tomorrow is going to suck. Alas, hoping for a little snow here as this thing exits stage right. 

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