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Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event


Brian D
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For my Indiana guys, mike Ryan just posted this in NWSChat:

Happy New Year everyone! Freezing rain is the story this morning, and the band east-west through the Indy metro is producing the steadiest rates so far this morning. As this band moves north over the next 30 minutes, precipitation coverage looks to be a bit more scattered. Also of note, the 32 degreee line appears to be following a county or so south of the location of the band. Bloomington has gone above freezing in the last hour and Terre Haute appear poised to do likewise within the next hour. Still think the Indy metro pulls above freezing from south to north in the 830-10 am timeframe. Road temps are in the 30-32 range over north central Indiana, 31-33 in the Indy metro and above freezing south of I-70. Finally, a trend we've noticed all night back into Missouri is that ice accrual seems to be roughly half to two thirds of the precipitation totals. That has held here...BMG had 0.11 inches precip and 0.06 ice accrual. in the last hour.

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24 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

For my Indiana guys, mike Ryan just posted this in NWSChat:

Happy New Year everyone! Freezing rain is the story this morning, and the band east-west through the Indy metro is producing the steadiest rates so far this morning. As this band moves north over the next 30 minutes, precipitation coverage looks to be a bit more scattered. Also of note, the 32 degreee line appears to be following a county or so south of the location of the band. Bloomington has gone above freezing in the last hour and Terre Haute appear poised to do likewise within the next hour. Still think the Indy metro pulls above freezing from south to north in the 830-10 am timeframe. Road temps are in the 30-32 range over north central Indiana, 31-33 in the Indy metro and above freezing south of I-70. Finally, a trend we've noticed all night back into Missouri is that ice accrual seems to be roughly half to two thirds of the precipitation totals. That has held here...BMG had 0.11 inches precip and 0.06 ice accrual. in the last hour.

Was watching this earlier.  Surface freezing is just south of I70 right now.  According to meso analysis 925 freeze line is up to Ft. Wayne and 850's are already half way through MI.  Had some light ZR a little while ago, maybe some ZR drizzle now with a surface temp of 30 and climbing already.  WAA is going to blow through most of IN if this keeps up.  Don't think we have much to worry about except lots of cold ass rain.  I would venture to say even points to the far NW may come out better.  Looks like as always the WAA overperforms the models.  Kinda surprised.  I would think as this thing shears out the pump would weaken.  Mediocre Pacific heat pumped by that extra tropical storm NE of HI last week along with untouched GOM torch water and damn near 0 arctic air mass leads to the GFS solution Saturday for us.  A freakin mess lol.

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As I typed that the surface freeze line moved N of Indy.  I'll be above 0C by 9am.  Looks like if anyone is going to get ice it'll be NW IL/ SE IA.  Most of MO at or above 0C now except for far NW.  I really am surprised a 1006 low is lifting this much warmth this aggressively.  I was thinking noon to 2pm to hit 0C from an overnight low of -5C.   Not complaining, only thing I hate more than ice is mud.  My temps up to 31F now.  Guess I'll get the greater of 2 evils lol.

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20210101_082808.thumb.jpg.8ad4478168d3b8cdd1c5babf0f05b533.jpg

Briefly started as sleet here before switching to rain. Roads are a nightmare and trees have a solid glaze of ice already. High precip rates are preventing all of the liquid from freezing on contact though. 

A huge area is going to get ice today which is going to make it difficult to quickly restore power to places that lose it. I wonder how far north that freezing line is going to make it. 

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46 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

Well, hoping to overperform the apparent lack of expectations and tag a legit 2-4" snow event today. Was hoping the outlook would at least lead to an SWS here on the LOT northern tier.

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your golden.

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54 minutes ago, kevlon62 said:

Well, hoping to overperform the apparent lack of expectations and tag a legit 2-4" snow event today. Was hoping the outlook would at least lead to an SWS here on the LOT northern tier.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Wonder if this will be a repeat of Wed. 

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Got a surprise 1.5 SN with wave 1, just enough early morning ice out of wave 2 to turn my dogs onto Nazi Punks F&$k Off, I'll gladly take this out of wave 3 and cash out until the 15th:thumbsup:

 snku_acc.us_mw.png&key=6f1d32a0430125af694704f9b45e0653eb551cd1bd549a1fa7809dc16e8b33aa

Not to burst your bubble, but toss the NAM.

 

Too far NE with event 1 and this current 2nd event, and already a far SE outlier for that 3rd event.

 

 

.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not to burst your bubble, but toss the NAM.

 

Too far NE with event 1 and this current 2nd event, and already a far SE outlier for that 3rd event.

 

 

.

Can't burst my bubble, I live in north central IN climo hell lol.  HRRR gives me a little love too with wave 3. It'll all turn to mud anyway, I'll take the eye candy if I can get it ;)

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