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Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event


Brian D
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Tricky forecast around here for various reasons.

It looks feasible to start off as snow/sleet, but that should be brief and my expectation is an inch or less of snow/sleet before a transition to freezing rain.  Exactly how long it takes to transition to freezing rain will play a role in ice amounts.  The other big question is what happens with surface temps as precip lightens and the flow starts to bend more northeast, and thus off of Lake Michigan.  Indications are that temps will nudge above freezing, if only by a little.  However, if that manages to not happen due to the inland penetration of the marine influence being overdone, the little bit of snow/sleet at onset being enough to feedback, or whatever other reason, temp profiles aloft would support freezing rain continuing in a lighter/more showery regime until enough cooling of the column occurs Friday evening.

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Will be curious to see if the offices hit the ice threat harder in the overnight discussions.  Most guidance (except the NAM and GFS) is suggestive of a band of around 0.25-0.50" ice accretion in MO/IL and into IN/MI.  Devil is in the details of course.  Do precip rates get too high and hurt accretion more than what the FRAM output suggests?

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