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Dec 29-Jan 2 potential storm event


Brian D
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A steady moderate freezing rain continues.  Glazing has been pretty efficient up until now with temps below 30.  If this were to continue all night we'd have a real problem on our hands.  Luckily temps should get up to near melting by 1-2am.  At the least it should slow down the efficient accrual.  

The combination of the 4.5" if snow and almost 1.5" of sleet makes for about 6" of snow/sleet on the ground now.  This has definitely been an entertaining system I'll give it that.

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Went above freezing here earlier than expected. That dry slot was a killer. Temps rose a lot with no precip and strong se winds. I thought with dews in the mid to upper 20s that once precip resumed that we could drop a bit again but nope. Got a little over an inch of snow and a glaze at best of ice. Hope this next storm fairs better here. Team gem till the end. 

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Absolutely pouring snow in Toledo. Living in Charleston I forgot how fun winter can be. Can’t believe a WWA never went up, roads are garbage and it’s easily 1” an hour rates here

Yeah, I love winter. That is why I come back to MI for DJ and some of F. Usually the opposite of most people :P

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44 minutes ago, nwohweather said:


I believe we had 2.5”. Blowing and drifting did not help, but ground and grass more than covered

Makes sense. We had 3.6". I have a friend in Toledi who posted a pic and im thinking, thats way more than an inch lol.

 

Nice brief burst of heavy snow tonight. Probably near an inch in less than 2 hours 

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Here's a NAM forecast sounding from around here Fri morning.

nam_2020123000_063_41.55--87_38.thumb.png.891fdd6e8b6712f489a15d806f4f4ca5.png

This is a pretty classic freezing rain look.  The warm layer aloft in depth/magnitude is more than enough for complete melting of precip into liquid, while the near surface cold layer is rather shallow and not super cold.  

The obvious question is how long can the low level cold layer hold on?  Eventually it should lose out (barring a significant shift southeast) and cause a flip to plain rain even while the sfc flow is east or slightly northeast, but I suspect it will be a laborious climb given the wind direction, time of year, and ongoing precip.  Could envision quite a few hours of 32-34 degree temps.

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Final total of 9.2" taken from average of snow boards around the yard. Well forecast and very respectable event. Quite a bit of FZDZ out there currently and it's quite nasty. Should end up with solid glaze by morning. Temp 30.

Honestly the first event I can remember where I'm left thinking ... Damn did the canadian do a good job.

 

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Cudos to those that got the hammer.  Those that got the sink,  models seem to be giving you a second chance SE bump with wave 2.  Looks like there will even be a moisture starved wave 3 that could toss those of us in the orphanage an inch here and there maybe Sunday.  NYD is forecast to be the warmest at KIND since 2000, ROCK!  There's plenty of consistency over the next 10 days from the models... for absolutely nothing.  WTF do they know! lol :tomato:

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21 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Final total of 9.2" taken from average of snow boards around the yard. Well forecast and very respectable event. Quite a bit of FZDZ out there currently and it's quite nasty. Should end up with solid glaze by morning. Temp 30.

Honestly the first event I can remember where I'm left thinking ... Damn did the canadian do a good job.

 

I was surprised how well it did (at least against itself) with the tropics this year.  It was pretty tight on the H5 anomalies over the summer which could've made it look good tropic wise especially with GOM tracks.  To be honest,  this past summer the H5 setup resembled what's going on now.

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Temp up to 32 with freezing rain still holding on marginally.  Guessing at least a good 1/4" of glaze here on top of the other stuff.  Wondering how areas just south did on glazing, in areas that didn't get the crazy sleet storm and had less snow before the changeover.  Wouldn't be surprised if a fairly serious area of glazing took place just south of here along that northeast/southwest axis.  

MLI picked up 0.82" of precip after they changed over to primarily freezing rain.  

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Temp up to 32 with freezing rain still holding on marginally.  Guessing at least a good 1/4" of glaze here on top of the other stuff.  Wondering how areas just south did on glazing, in areas that didn't get the crazy sleet storm and had less snow before the changeover.  Wouldn't be surprised if a fairly serious area of glazing took place just south of here along that northeast/southwest axis.  

Way way less sleet, but way more freezing rain accretion. Judging by storm motion, my area would follow that same general SW to NE line. So I assume somewhere to the NW of me got your epic sleet storm as well. 

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